Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mystic, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight and Friday, and again Sunday afternoon and evening.

3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will usher in much colder weather for the beginning of next week, including subfreezing temperatures Monday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Today looks like the last hot day of the fcst period. High temps in the 80s to around 90 for most of the area. Had to manually boost temps well abv the NBM for the CT and NY coasts. Brought Montauk up by 11 degrees abv the NBM, which may still end up being too little. Still warm and abv normal on Fri, but high temps only in the 70s and low 80s with falling heights and chcs for shwrs and tstms.


KEY MESSAGE 2
A few cells may still pop early this mrng with outflow passing thru the cwa. No upr support so this convection should be limited in extent and intensity.

Unstable today, particularly N and W, but with the lack of a trigger tstm development is expected to be low probability attm. Still something to watch in the mesoscale as the day goes on due to expected CAPE and a lack of CIN. The next best chcs are this eve and tngt as heights fall and the sfc boundary drops swd into the area. The sfc boundary looks a bit too displaced from the upr support tngt to support a solid focus and high confidence in development. Stuck with the NBM pops which are only slight chc.

Timing of the upr trof for Fri seems a bit too early for optimal tstm support attm. A six hour difference could allow for this to act on enough CAPE to produce some strong low topped convection.
For now the NBM was followed which indicates chcs for shwrs thru the day.


KEY MESSAGE 3
Shwrs and embedded tstms likely on Sun with a cold fropa. Timing will determine the nature of any svr threat. The GFS and AI-GFS right now look a little too quick to support a big event with the front already into the area at 12Z. It is still a powerful upr low with a H3 jet modeled at 130+kt, so pcpn is still likely with the sys.

NW winds kick in behind the front and temps plummet by late in the day with lingering areas of rain. The cold pool aloft builds in Mon with 1000-500mb thicknesses around 520dam. The steep lapse rates should allow for at least isold-sct shwrs, possibly mixed with snow or ice pellets. The NBM pops may be a bit too low. Some spots across the interior may drop blw freezing Sun ngt, then much of the area could drop blw freezing Mon ngt. MGJ MOS climo is 39, and the MEX is already producing 29 Sun ngt and 25 Mon ngt.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A front slowly works south toward the region into Friday with waves of low pressure passing along it.

Mainly VFR. Dry conditions prevail through the day, before showers become possible across Lower Hudson Valley and S CT terminals (mainly KSWF) after 00Z Friday. Brief restrictions possible.

Light variable flow early this morning, becoming SW 8-15kt after 12Z with afternoon gusts to around 20 kt possible. Coastal terminals back S or SSW in the afternoon. Flow veers NW into Friday AM.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon.

Monday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Waves across the eastern ocean waters may briefly build to around 5 ft tngt, otherwise conditions will remain below SCA levels into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will likely bring SCA conditions Sunday and Monday.

CLIMATE
Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:

Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012

Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK:60/2002 KISP: 61/2002

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.