Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:26PM Monday June 21, 2021 3:44 AM EDT (07:44 UTC) Moonrise 4:59PMMoonset 2:41AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ332 Long Island Sound East Of The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 325 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Patchy fog early this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely in the evening.
Wed..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 325 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will slowly approach late today into Tuesday, then pass east Tuesday night. High pressure settles over the northeast Wednesday then shifts offshore late in the week. The next frontal system approaches from the west near the end of the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic, CT
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location: 41.34, -71.97     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 210557 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 157 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will slowly approach from the west late today into Tuesday, then pass east Tuesday night. High pressure will settle over the Northeast on Wednesday, then shift offshore later this week. The next frontal system will approach from the west near the end of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Updated earlier to increase cloud cover, mainly across the coastal areas with the expectation of stratus developing.

Otherwise, a warm and humid night is in store with dew points into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temps tonight will also only drop to the upper 60s or lower 70s. Some patchy fog development is also possible as the moisture at the surface becomes trapped under an inversion as the atmosphere decouples tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Today will be another warm and muggy day as temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s and potentially lower 90s in and around the immediate NYC metro. Dew points will remains in the upper 60s and potentially lower 70s allowing for the heat index in the afternoon to reach into the middle to upper 90s for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NYC metro, and NE NJ.

A pre-frontal trough approaches from the west with the possibility of showers and thunderstorm development in the afternoon and evening. The timing of these storms is still a bit uncertain as many CAM's have much of the convection approaching the area after 7-8PM. Regardless, any strong storm can produce gusty winds along with heavy rain as PWATs will be 1.5-1.8". Much of the convective activity should weaken fairly quickly as it approaches Long Island and CT as it should be after sunset and it encounters a more stable airmass.

Meanwhile, whatever is left of Claudette will pass well to the southeast this afternoon with little if any impact for the area.

The chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm remains through much of the evening and into the overnight though coverage should be scattered at best. The cold front approaches the area during the morning on Tuesday with much of the precip generated by it falling in its wake. Though an isolated thunderstorm will be possible, much of the precipitation should be in the form of rain showers during much of the day on Tuesday. Highs will be in the 70s.

Behind the cold front, dew points and temps fall a bit with lows on Tuesday night in the 50s with the warmest locations being by the immediate coastline. Any showers end overnight Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Dry conditions expected to start the long term as a +1020 mb high pressure system builds behind an exiting mid-level trough Wednesday and settles into New England through the middle of next week. The area will likely see 1000-500 mb RH values less than 10% overhead with PWAT values falling to less than half an inch. This means rain chances are near zero until Friday. Expected afternoon temperatures in the low 80s and upper 70s which are near diurnal averages.

Friday could be interesting meteorologically speaking. Global models are beginning to depict a broad low pressure system near North Carolina forming off the decaying front from earlier in the week. This inverted trough rides the synoptic flow north nearing Long Island Friday. With it precipitable water values increase to around 1.5-1.7 inches. Depending on the nature of the system and its proximity, southern New York could see increased rain chances for Friday.

Attention shifts over the weekend to the trough and frontal system deepening near the Ohio River valley. This could be a fairly a traditional frontal system with CAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg and unidirectional shear meaning that strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible. The exact timing remains uncertain, but current guidance is hinting towards a Sunday into Monday timeframe.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Weak will drift east today as a pre-frontal trough nears the area by evening.

MVFR conds developing toward morning, with areas of IFR possible at KTEB and terminals outside the NYC metros. Improvement to VFR this morning, and may be earlier than forecast at the New York City terminals. There is a chance MVFR ceilings could remain at KISP/KGON through the period.

Winds S less than 10kt, with outlying terminals light/variable. S winds increase to 10-15 kt, and to over 15 kt at KJFK. Gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon, with the higher gusts in the NYC metro areas. Gusts end and winds diminish this evening.

Could see chance of tstms late day at KSWF and possibly KHPN, then down into the NYC metros and possibly KBDR this evening.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

AMD likely late tonight and into this morning for developing MVFR, possibly brief IFR conds. Improvement to VFR by 16Z. Higher confidence in winds.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Late tonight. MVFR/IFR conds especially along the coast. Tuesday. MVFR or lower. Showers likely with chance of tstms. Wednesday and Thursday. VFR. Friday. Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. No changes to winds and seas at this time.

Seas remain sub-SCA through tonight and early Monday. Ahead of a cold front winds on the ocean rise to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt during the afternoon. Seas will also rise to around 5 ft by this afternoon and into at least tonight as whatever is left of Claudette passes by well to the SE. Have issued SCA on the ocean waters for this timeframe. Seas look to stay elevated Tuesday into Tuesday night as well so SCA may have to be extended.

As a high builds into the marine zones, winds relax to 5-10 kt with seas falling to around 3 feet through mid week. As the high shifts over the Atlantic on Friday, winds strengthen slightly out of the southwest increasing to around 15 kt. By the end of the weekend SCA conditions may be possible with the arrival of the next frontal boundary with ocean seas building to more than 5 ft.

HYDROLOGY. Some downpours are possible late tonight into Tue, with nuisance flooding a possibility.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A moderate rip current risk is forecast at the ocean beaches for Monday and Tuesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/MW NEAR TERM . MW SHORT TERM . MW LONG TERM . DJ AVIATION . BG MARINE . DJ/MW HYDROLOGY . DJ/MW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BG/DJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 6 mi64 min ESE 8 G 8 65°F 1007.7 hPa60°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi74 min 69°F 62°F1008.7 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi74 min 67°F 66°F1008.7 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 34 mi74 min S 7 G 8 67°F 69°F1008.7 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi74 min S 5.1 G 7 67°F 67°F1008.7 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 39 mi104 min E 3.9 G 3.9 70°F 67°F1 ft
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 39 mi119 min SSW 2.9 67°F 1009 hPa66°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 39 mi74 min SSW 2.9 G 6 67°F 1009.2 hPa
PRUR1 40 mi74 min 67°F 67°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi74 min W 9.9 G 11 67°F 71°F1008.3 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi74 min S 6 G 8.9 69°F 67°F1008.8 hPa
PVDR1 44 mi74 min SSE 9.9 G 11 69°F 1008.8 hPa68°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi44 min SSW 14 G 16 67°F 1009.1 hPa (-1.0)65°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 49 mi74 min S 6 G 7 69°F 1008.9 hPa
FRXM3 49 mi74 min 68°F 68°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi48 minSSE 45.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F93%1008.3 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI9 mi51 minS 34.00 miFog/Mist63°F63°F100%1008.7 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi50 minN 0 mi68°F66°F93%1009.2 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi48 minSSW 105.00 miFog/Mist65°F63°F93%1009.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW8SW3W6W8W6SW9SW9SW11SW9SW8S6S6S7S4SW8SW5SW4CalmS3SE3SE3SE4SE4
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2 days agoCalmN3CalmCalmS3S4S7S7S7S6S5S6S10SW11SW7SW9SW8SW5SW9SW9SW7SW10SW12SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
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Mon -- 01:04 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:32 AM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:03 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.10.30.91.522.32.321.61.10.70.40.20.41.11.92.63.13.232.51.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Mon -- 02:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:04 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     2.81 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:05 PM EDT     -3.05 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:08 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:08 PM EDT     3.26 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.4-2.8-1.6-0.11.42.52.82.31.40.1-1.3-2.5-3-2.7-1.6-0.21.32.73.2320.7-0.9-2.5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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