Sunday, September15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex Village, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:01PM Sunday September 15, 2019 11:02 PM EDT (03:02 UTC) Moonrise 8:05PMMoonset 7:37AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 955 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019
Overnight..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds around 5 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 955 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the waters will give way to an approaching weak cold front overnight. This front moves through late Monday into Monday evening. High pressure then returns thereafter and remains in control through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex Village CDP, CT
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location: 41.35, -72.37     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 160151
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
951 pm edt Sun sep 15 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the area gives way to a weak cold front
overnight. This front moves through Monday into Monday evening.

High pressure then returns thereafter and remains in control
through the end of the week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
The forecast is mostly on track. Minor adjustments to evening
hourly temps, dewpoints, and winds were made with this update.

An approaching upper level trough will allow for some increase
in clouds. Latest okx sounding fairly dry. Most clouds will be
mid to upper level and conditions are expected to remain dry.

There will be light winds but with the clouds, expect some
partial mitigation of radiational cooling. Mav met blend was
used for lows, with some manual adjustment down 1-2 degrees for
eastern sections of the region where there will be a greater
time period with less clouds and therefore more radiational
cooling. The range for forecast lows will be mostly from the
upper 50s to upper 60s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
The high pressure gives way on Monday to an approaching weak
frontal system. There will be an associated weak cold front
that will approach as well. Models convey the passage of the
front to occur Monday and farther south of long island going
into Monday evening. The pressure gradient remains weak so winds
will be light and direction will be variable. Behind the front
Monday night, winds slightly increase and become more ne.

Concerning the rain showers with the front, not much is expected
looking at the consensus from numerical models. The forcing aloft
shown with the 500mb vorticity shows most of the positive vorticity
advection to the northeast of the region. Little to no surface
instability is forecast ahead of the front. Overall, not expecting
thunderstorms or any organized heavy rain. However, will have a
chance (around 30 percent) between 16-00z. For shower coverage,
expecting generally isolated to scattered.

Highs on Monday with the extra clouds and light winds as well as
limited vertical mixing, will be a few degrees cooler than the
previous day for high temperatures (mostly mid 70s to near 80).

Used mav met ecs blend but with less weight for met which
seemed too low.

Lows Monday night will once again have some mitigation of
radiational cooling but this time it will be because of
increasing winds late that will keep boundary layer more mixed.

Used relatively warmer mav guidance for lows which mainly range
from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches on Monday.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Longwave trough over the canadian maritimes will be slow to move
east into the north atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. However,
deterministic models and ensemble means indicate ridging aloft and
at the surface dominating the synoptic pattern through the weekend.

Dry weather is expected through the long term. Mostly sunny on
Tuesday, but probably a little more in the way of clouds during
Wednesday as models show some moisture in the 850-925mb layer. There
appears to be a diminishing chance of low stratus and drizzle weds
night through thurs night as winds and the strength of high pressure
over the region through this period become less favorable for
formation. Highs near normal on Tuesday, then a couple of degrees
cooler on Wednesday and Thursday. The wind flow becomes more
offshore for most of the area Friday through Sunday with high
temperatures warmer than normal.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
Vfr conditions overnight, mainly mid and high clouds. A weak
cool front will pass through early Monday morning. MainlyVFR
ceilings are expected Monday, but MVFR is likely at kswf for
most of the day. A few sprinkles are possible during the day
across most terminals.

Light winds overnight shift to the N at most terminals between
9z-12z. Winds should then veer NE later in the morning, maybe
even e-se early afternoon at bdr gon. E SE possible at jfk and
isp later in the afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night Vfr with clearing skies.

Tuesday and Wednesday Vfr with high pressure in control.

Thursday and Friday Vfr. Can't rule out late night early
morning radiation fog at the inland terminals.

Marine
Overall, a weak pressure gradient remains through Monday evening
with some increase in pressure gradient late Monday night.

Conditions will be below SCA through Monday night for all
waters, but NE gusts to near 20 kt are expected late Monday
night mainly for the ocean.

Ne winds on Tuesday diminish through the day. This will lead into an
extended period of e-ne sustained winds 10-15 kt with gusts under 25
kt through Thursday afternoon. Winds then become lighter Thursday
night as they veer towards s, then eventually sw-w on Friday.

Sca conditions are however possible on the ocean starting Wednesday
afternoon as ocean swells increase to 5 ft in association with
humberto.

Hydrology
No significant hydrologic impacts through the end of the week.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jc jm
near term... Jm pw
short term... Jm
long term... Jc
aviation... Pw
marine... Jc jm
hydrology... Jc jm
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi45 min Calm G 1 68°F 70°F1017.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi45 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 72°F1017 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 30 mi45 min 69°F 71°F1017.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi57 min E 1.9 G 2.9 69°F 72°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT8 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair64°F59°F83%1017.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair65°F60°F84%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6--------Calm----NW4--Calm4--NW64--CalmW6565CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalm--------Calm----CalmCalmCalm--SE3S12S10
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2 days ago--5N3------N5--N3N4N6N6E56E7E7
G14
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G12
SE7SE4SE3SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Essex, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:44 AM EDT     -3.10 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:45 AM EDT     2.78 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:03 PM EDT     -3.08 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:02 PM EDT     2.72 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1-0.4-1.8-2.9-3.1-2.5-1.30.11.52.52.82.31.30.1-1.4-2.6-3.1-2.7-1.7-0.41.12.22.72.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.