Wednesday, November20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex Village, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:29PM Wednesday November 20, 2019 9:10 AM EST (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 12:21AMMoonset 2:26PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 547 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Slight chance of light rain.
Tonight..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 547 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Deepening low pressure well east of the area today will pass just east of the canadian maritimes tonight into Thursday, while high pressure builds in from the west. The high moves offshore Thursday night. A cold front then crosses the area on Friday, followed briefly by high pressure Saturday. Low pressure may impact the region Saturday night into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex Village CDP, CT
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location: 41.35, -72.37     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxus61.kokx.afd.okx.txt <- there really should be an address herer AEFXUS61 KOKX 201348 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 848 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

SYNOPSIS Deepening low pressure well east of the area today will pass just east of the Canadian Maritimes tonight into Thursday, while high pressure builds in from the west. The high moves offshore Thursday night. A cold front then crosses the area on Friday, followed briefly by high pressure Saturday. Low pressure may impact the region Saturday night into Sunday, before high pressure returns early next week.

NEAR TERM UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING Have removed any mention of snow mixing in this morning across interior southern CT based on warmer boundary layer temperatures and the light nature of the precipitation. Have also added sprinkles across the western half of the area this morning with the upper low moving across.

Upper trough and closed low across area this morning will lift north and east today, while offshore low pressure continues to deepen. Ridging over the mid section of the country and associated surface high pressure will also build east today.

This will result in a gradually strengthening northerly flow between the departing low and building high. Gusts to around 20 mph will be possible by afternoon, strongest along the coast.

There will also be plenty of clouds associated with the upper trough and wrap around moisture as it passes to the east. HiRes models continue to show weak reflectivity returns developing across eastern sections of the area this morning into the afternoon with sprinkles and or light rain, mainly across eastern LI and southeast CT. Any rainfall will be light and likely brief.

Some clearing develops late this afternoon across western sections of the forecast area.

Daytime highs will be held in check by the cloud cover and northerly flow with readings not getting out of the 40s. This is about 5 to 8 degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY Ridging both aloft and at the surface builds into the area tonight through Thursday. This will result in clearing skies and a brisk northerly flow that diminishes late tonight into Thursday.

Lows tonight will be around 30 well inland, to the lower and mid 30s along the coast. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 40s to around 50. These values are a shade below normal.

LONG TERM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A fairly progressive flow pattern continues to be shown by the models for the long term. The main system of concern may occur Saturday night into Sunday with models and ensembles continuing to indicate large differences in track which will have significant implications on low pressure intensity, temperature profiles, and precipitation amounts.

Before the weekend system, ridging both at the surface and aloft Thursday night will give way to an amplifying northern stream shortwave on Friday. A cold front will move across on Friday as the shortwave swings through New England. The warmest temperatures of the long term period will occur ahead of the front as readings rise into the lower and middle 50s inland and upper 50s near the coast.

The overall trend in the models has been for less moisture as the front moves across and have lowered PoPs to follow this idea. It is entirely possible that the front moves across the region dry. A consensus of the models has the front moving offshore late afternoon and early evening. Winds will increase Friday night behind the front with NW wind gusts 25 to 30 mph.

Progressive ridging moves overhead on Saturday as a split flow pattern develops across the central States. The southern stream system of concern is currently located along the southwest coast.

This system will slowly move towards the Central States through Saturday. The northern stream shortwave energy of concern, currently located over the North Pacific, should near the northern Plains on Saturday. What happens thereafter is likely to be one key piece to the track and intensity of the low pressure Saturday night into Sunday. The ECMWF and GFS differ in where the northern stream energy moves, with the GFS diving south around the base of the mean upper trough. The ECMWF has the energy beginning to interact with the southern stream wave Sunday morning across the Great Lakes. Both models have the low pressure of concern tracking over or near the Long Island coast Saturday night into Sunday despite the differences in the northern and southern stream interactions, which may lend some credibility to further north solution. The CMC evolution is much different with the southern stream system interacting with a northern stream wave moving across southeast Canada, but the low pressure is weaker and much more progressive. The spread in the ensembles is large with several members in the more inland camp with several further offshore. While there is some agreement with the surface pattern on the GFS and ECMWF, run-to-run continuity is low.

Did not make large changes to the previous forecast due to the aforementioned uncertainties. Saturday will largely be dry with precipitation chances increasing quickly from south to north Saturday night. Have increased PoPs slightly across the southern half of the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

A track closer to the coast like the GFS and ECMWF indicate would largely be plain rain across the entire region. A track like the 12z Tuesday runs of the GFS and ECMWF, which was further off the coast of Long Island Sunday morning, could introduce some PTYPE issues inland, but also concern of how far north the precip reaches.

Temperature profiles are also marginal even with a further offshore track. The system is progressive which should help to limit the duration of any impacts with the low.

The system quickly lifts north and east towards the Canadian Maritimes late Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure returns early next week. Temperatures should be below normal this weekend and then approach normal early next week.

AVIATION 14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY Overhead moisture slowly shifts east today as a high pressure system builds to the west. This will allow MVFR ceilings, mainly east of the NYC terminals, this morning to slowly improve throughout the day. Though uncertainty exists with the exact timing, expectVFR conditions to dominate the metro TAF sites late this afternoon and then throughout the area this evening.

Prior to this some light intermittent drizzle will be possible for eastern most TAFs sites in SE CT and eastern Long Island.

Winds today will remain out of the NW, to the right of 310 magnetic, and increase to 10-15kt with some gusts to around 20kt possible.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:
Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi52 min N 5.1 G 9.9 41°F 52°F1011.6 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi40 min N 14 G 17 42°F 1007.1 hPa38°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi52 min N 11 G 13 40°F 46°F1011.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 30 mi52 min 44°F 49°F1011.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi58 min N 6 G 12 39°F 47°F1012.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT8 mi15 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast39°F37°F93%1011.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi74 minN 910.00 miLight Rain39°F39°F100%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Essex, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Wed -- 01:58 AM EST     2.58 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:21 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:24 AM EST     -2.73 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:36 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:24 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:26 PM EST     2.47 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:43 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:52 PM EST     -2.96 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.22.22.62.21.50.4-0.8-2-2.7-2.6-1.9-0.80.51.72.42.41.80.8-0.4-1.7-2.7-3-2.5-1.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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