NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
255 PM Update...

The fair weather cumulus that has developed this afternoon across the area will give way to clear skies tonight as high pressure remains overhead. Winds will be light and this will support good radiational cooling over the region and thus blended in the NBM10th percentile into the forecast for low temperatures tonight. Lows will mainly be in the low to mid 50s, with some of the higher elevations and lowest valleys even dipping back into the upper 40s overnight. There can be some areas of valley fog that develop as well overnight through early tomorrow morning.

High pressure will remain in control through Saturday night promoting dry and pleasant conditions. The sky could look a bit hazy later in the day Saturday as some Canadian wildfire smoke moves in aloft, but is not expected to affect air quality. An upper level ridge will start to push in from the west Saturday night and the flow is expected to become more southerly, so it won't be quite as cool as tonight, but still comfortable. Highs Saturday range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s and lows Saturday night are expected to be from the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
235 PM Update

Upper level ridge and surface high remain over the region on Sunday into Sunday night, providing clear and warm conditions. Highs reach 85 to 90 over the area, but the humidity won't be too bad, as surface dew points hold in the upper 50s to low 60s during the afternoon hours. Quiet and seasonable Sunday night; perhaps some river valley fog, with lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s.

Our weather stays mainly quiet on Monday, but a slow moving, spinning upper level low tries to approach from the east...potentially moving into NJ late in the day. This combined with another upper level disturbance over the Ohio Valley will begin to gradually increase moisture over Central NY and Northeast PA.
This leads to partly sunny and warm conditions, with highs in the mid-80s to low 90s. Have introduced some slight chance PoPs over the Catskills and northern Poconos before sunset Monday now. These PoPs expand west back toward I-81 with a slight chance to chance for showers or t'storms heading into Monday evening and night. Mild with lows in the 60s areawide.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
235 PM Update

The weather pattern turns a bit more active for the long term period. A broad upper level trough combines with that East Coast upper level low and slowly moves east from the Ohio valley/Great Lakes into the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. As PWATs rise up to around 1.8 inches and MLCAPE gets in the 700-1500 J/kg range numerous showers and t'storms are expected to develop both Tuesday and Wednesday. Right now, model guidance is keeping the deep layer wind shear on the lower end, around 10-20 kts only. So trends in the shear will need to be watch carefully in the coming days to see if we will get any organized, or stronger convection. Either way, with the relatively high levels of moisture and instability, these storms could certainly produce some heavy downpours, with WPC already highlighting our area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday (Day 5). Felt the data was consistent enough over the past several days to bring the official forecast up into the 'Likely' PoP range, especially on Wednesday. Outside of the showers and t'storms it will be partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid-80s and muggy overnight lows in the mid-60s to lower 70s.

By Thursday, the trough may still be over portions of the area, but it is beginning to move east into New England and the Atlantic. Kept a chance for lingering showers and t'storms in the forecast though, based on the NBM guidance, and the fact that timing is uncertain this far out. Heading into Friday, it appears the weak trough will be exiting east, replaced by some rather flat upper level ridging. Can't rule out an afternoon shower or storm, otherwise mostly sunny very warm and humid with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s expected. Heat indices could be pushing mid to upper 90s in the valleys.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will result in light winds and VFR conditions through early Saturday evening. There is low confidence in fog at ELM tonight as conditions look too dry, but the tempo for LIFR restrictions remains in the TAF as most guidance is favoring low visibilities there.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday...VFR expected. Humidity may rise high enough for early morning valley fog formation Sat night and Sun night.

Tuesday and Wednesday...scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.