Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 1:37 PM   Moonset 2:01 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 556 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Today - NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.Tue - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 556 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Weak high pressure builds in from northern new england through tonight. High pressure generally remains in control through the middle of next week, gradually giving way to an approaching cold front.

FXUS61 KBGM 170739 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 339 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Clouds increase today as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. Rain is not expected to begin to move in until mid to late afternoon with rain showers persisting into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
340 AM Update...

Mostly clear skies across much of the area for the first half of the night has allowed for valley fog to develop once again but mainly in the upper Susquehanna region. A marine layer is pushing into NEPA early this morning that will bring some lower stratus while high clouds stream in from the west as our next shortwave dips into the Great Lakes region. Timing if the 500 mb shortwave is a bit slower so it is looking more likely that most of the area will stay dry into the late afternoon and early evening. The rain will move in from the west impacting the Finger Lakes and the western Southern Tier first around sunset.
Forecast soundings and layer RH are showing dry air persisting west of I81 tomorrow night so chances of precipitation were reduced and pushed back more towards Saturday morning. There is a few hundred joules of CAPE across the Finger Lakes this afternoon and evening so a few thunderstorms will likely be able to get going.

The 500 mb trough really flattens as it moves through Saturday but will still provide enough lift to generate showers though coverage will be decreasing. The rain and clouds will limit heating and with the trough axis swinging through in the late morning and early afternoon, an increase in shower activity is not anticipated Saturday afternoon as there will not be enough destabilization.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
315 AM Update...

Remnants of a weak frontal passage may stick around Sunday.
Ridging begins to build into the area Sunday, so it's more likely to be very light showers in the morning, with sky cover decreasing through the day. As ridging slowly strengthens into Monday, it'll get warmer and drier with mostly clear skies, temperatures in the high-70s to low-80s, and low humidity by Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
315 AM Update...

Ridging maintains over our area Tuesday. It'll be similar to Monday; low humidity, mostly clear, and temperatures in the high-70s to low-80s. Some valley areas may even hit mid-80s.
Things begin to get interesting heading into Wednesday. Ridging begins sliding eastward, making room for the next system to impact the forecast area Wednesday sometime in the afternoon.
This is still far out in time, and model guidance consensus has been shaky over the past few days, so timing is very much up in the air still. As of now, the greatest chances for thunderstorm development is Wednesday, as a system pushes a frontal boundary over the forecast area. We'll keep monitoring this system and guidance to see any shifts or better confidence from their solutions.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Valley fog is beginning to form though wont be as widespread as the previous night. With clouds hanging out over ELM, decided to keep the tempo as it has slowed cooling. BGM will likely see some fog reach the hill top later this morning before sunrise but should not stick around long. A marine layer is pushing towards AVP but downsloping off the Poconos should keep scattering out cigs but will be watched just in case MVFR cigs do make it over. After 12Z, VFR conditions are expected region wide until late this evening when rain begins to move in from the west towards 6Z.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but restrictions still possible.

Monday into Tuesday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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New Brunswick, Raritan River, New Jersey, Tide feet

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Fri -- 02:35 AM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
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Fri -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:12 AM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:58 PM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
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