Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wakefield-Peacedale, RI

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Key Messages...

* Plenty of sunshine today with highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70s...but a tad cooler across parts of the Cape and Nantucket

Details...

A dry cold front will cross the region through daybreak ushering in a beautiful post-frontal airmass. While temps will be cooling aloft...plenty of sunshine along with a mild start should result in high temps in the upper 60s to the lower 70s in most locations. It will be a tad cooler across the high terrain and parts of the Cape/Nantucket...but still a very nice day. Northwest winds will gust to between 20 and 25 mph through about lunchtime...but gradually diminish during the second part of the day.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/

Key Messages...

* Dry & cool tonight with lows in the 30s & 40s with some frost possible in the normally cooler outlying locations

* Sunshine Thu with highs mainly in the middle to upper 60s but upper 50s/near 60 on the immediate coast with sea breezes

Details...

Tonight...

High pressure builds in from the west tonight and will result in winds becoming light/calm. This coupled with a relatively dry airmass in place will result in good radiational cooling conditions tonight and cool temperatures. Overnight low temps should bottom out in the lower to middle 30s in the normally coolest outlying locations...where some frost will be possible. Later shifts may need to consider some frost advisories where the season is now open.
Meanwhile...expect overnight lows in the lower to middle 40s for the urban centers of Boston and Providence.

Thursday...

High pressure will remain in control of our weather Thu gradually sliding further east. Plenty of sunshine will allow highs to reach the middle to upper 60s in most locations
However
a weak pressure gradient will allow for sea breeze development holding highs in the upper 50s to near 60 on the very immediate coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Messages:

* Possible showers/thundershowers Thurs night/Fri, with perhaps another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms (a couple strong?) Fri aftn.

* Another round of rainy conditions Sat.

* Large uncertainty in pattern for early next week...including either dry weather and mild temps under high pressure, or cloudy/cooler and unsettled with periods of rain as low pressure lingers offshore.

Details:

Thursday Night and Friday:

A surface low moves across southern Ontario Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing a warm front and the first round of showers to southern New England. Guidance continues to indicate modest amounts of instability across the western portion of the CWA, allowing for the chance of thunder into early Friday morning.
Expecting at least a few hours of dry weather through the early afternoon, but it's becoming increasingly likely that skies will remain overcast. If we can get some breaks in the clouds to allow for surface heating, and combined with MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, it's possible some storms could be on the stronger side.

Cloudiness will likely be one of the largest limiting factors on Friday, not only with the strength of storms, but also with general temperatures. Deterministic guidance is suggesting widespread high 70s, even into the low 80s in some areas; however, similar set ups this week have seen the CWA fall short of 80.

We may briefly dry out early Fri night, but the system's frontal boundary stays nearby or washes out, setting the stage for the next round of showers/t-storms for Sat.

Weekend:

A secondary low looks to form Friday night across the Midwest/Mid- Atlantic and push into the vicinity later Saturday morning, bringing yet another round of showers to southern New England. Rain chances really start to increase for the afternoon/evening hours and taper off by early Sunday morning. Sunday's temps drop dramatically as we get some northern air funneled in from Canada... highs likely only in the low to mid 60s.

Early Next Week:

The start to next week becomes tricky... GFS continues to indicate dry and mild under a broad high, but ECMWF and Canadian show widespread showers with more marine influence via an upper level low and onshore flow. Very messy, changeable pattern and stuck with NBM until there's better agreement.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF update...

VFR. Gusty SW winds continue, especially across the Cape/Islands.

Tonight...High Confidence.

SW wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots with a few gusts near 35 knots possible towards the Cape. LLWS will also develop across much of SE Massachusetts and are included in many of the TAFS.

Wednesday...High Confidence.

VFR. NW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots with the strongest of the winds through mid-afternoon.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, isolated TSRA.

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SHRA likely, isolated TSRA.

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High Confidence.

A cold front crosses the region through daybreak. Behind this front...winds shift to the NW with gusts between 20 and 25 knots through lunchtime with the strongest of those winds nearshore.
Will continue to small craft headlines through lunchtime...but gradient weakens this afternoon so will let most of the headlines expire except for our southern waters with lingering swell.

Tonight and Thursday...High Confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters which will keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds tonight and Thu.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

FIRE WEATHER

After collaboration with our surrouding WFO/s and Fire Weather partners...a special weather statement remains in effect today for the elevated risk of fire spread. NW wind gusts of 20-25 mph through lunchtime with a few brief gusts near 30 mph will combine with minimum afternoon RH values dropping to between 15 and 30 percent.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ230>237-250- 251.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254>256.