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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 922 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain and slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 922 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure over the western atlantic will continue to gradually move eastward, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east. A strong cold frontal passage will occur late Sunday night into Monday morning, with low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into canada on Monday. A broad area of high pressure then builds in through the rest of next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 091149 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 649 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to gradually move eastward, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east. A strong cold frontal passage will occur late Sunday night into Monday morning, with low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into Canada on Monday. A broad area of high pressure then builds in through the rest of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
No significant changes with the forecast update this morning.
The biggest change was to update the morning temperatures which were cooler than forecast. Otherwise, we are looking at a fairly quiet weather day, with dry conditions. Any early morning fog across the region will gradually dissipate with warming temperatures. Southerly winds today will result in some warm air advection. This will allow temperatures to warm into the 50s across the entire region. While there may be some sun in the morning, clouds will gradually increase through the day as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Can not rule out breaks of sun throughout the day. If more sun occurs than forecast, temperatures may need to be adjusted upwards.

For Saturday night, upper level ridging moves east with troughing to the west moving into the region. Clouds will continue to lower and thicken. With abundant low level moisture, will once again include patchy fog in the forecast. The fog may be more widespread than Friday night. Most of the night will be dry, however will have some slight chance/chance POPs enter the CWA from the west very late tonight. Anything that falls before sunrise will be light. A warmer night is expected tonight with warm air advection continuing. Lows tonight will remain in the 40s for much of the CWA. The only exception will be across Orange county where temperatures may fall into the middle to upper 30s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A significant storm system is expected to impact the forecast area during the short term period. For now, No changes to the current forecast headlines.

A flood watch remains in effect for all but the Twin Forks of LI. A high wind watch remains in effect for all of LI, along with Brooklyn and Queens. Both watches start at 4 pm Sun.

A deepening upper level trough and strong cold front will approach the region on Sunday. There will be lots of moisture with this system as the upper trough digs deep into the south, tapping into the moisture over the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will gradually increase on Sunday as this system starts to run into the high over the Atlantic as the pressure gradient increases. Also, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along the front on Saturday and travel northward along the front as if moves from the middle Atlantic into New England. Most of the rain on Sunday will generally be light to moderate, however by late Sunday afternoon and evening, the rainfall will increase in coverage and intensity. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will continue through much of Sunday night for the entire region as the front moves across the area. Will continue to mention the slight chance of thunder with the frontal passage as well. Overall, rainfall amounts will range between 2-3 inches across the entire region, with locally higher amounts possible. Forecast guidance showing a good chance that the highest rainfall totals could end up in CT as the front does slow down a bit as the front exits the region, as the upper trough starts to become negatively tilted.

Also, a rather windy period is expected with the front. A strong low level jet is forecast to move over the eastern sections of the CWA.
Both the NAM and GFS shows the jet really intensifying after 06z east of NYC. As a result a high wind watch will remain in effect.
The GFS is showing 925mb winds around 70kt. Forecast will continue to call for 40-50mph gusts early Monday morning across Long Island, Brooklyn and Queens.

The front moves east of the region on Monday. As the front moves east winds will quickly shift around the NW with a shot of colder air working into the region. Can not rule out some parts of orange county seeing some snowflakes as the precip comes to an end.
Right now, little to no accumulations are expected.

Dry weather is expected for Monday night as high pressure starts to build back into the region. It will remain gusty as the gradient remains tight between the departing low and arriving high.

Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with highs on Monday in the 40s for much of the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
No significant changes for the long term period and stuck largely to the NBM.

A large, strong high pressure system sets itself up over the East Coast by Tuesday morning under fairly zonal mid-level flow. This high pressure system becomes reinforced by an approaching mid-level ridge moving in from the west through the middle of the week. This high pressure will keep conditions dry through the week. Despite dry conditions for the area, conditions may be a bit breezy as disturbances pass by to the north. This will allow for a tight pressure gradient with generally W to NW winds through the week.

While global models disagree on the details of the next system, all are consistent in developing a low pressure system somewhere in the vicinity of the East Coast next weekend.

The W/NW winds through the period will allow for temperatures to be at or just below normal for this time of the year with highs generally in the low to middle 40s through the middle of the week with a subtle warm up to the upper 40s by the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure offshore will continue to slowly track away from the area, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east.

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the day. THis morning there may be pockets of MVFR or localized IFR, mainly for KHPN and KSWF. Low stratus and fog may attempt to work in toward the city terminals from the west this morning but not expecting to result in sub-VFR conditions. MVFR/IFR condition expected late tonight for most terminals with the approach of the frontal system. SHRA possible as early as 10Z Sunday but more likely by 15Z Sunday.

Light flow is forecast through the evening with wind speeds below 10 kt. Light S-SE winds into the afternoon. The light southerly flow will begin to gradually increase toward daybreak Sunday, especially at the coastal terminals.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Very localized MVFR visibilities/cigs possible before 15Z.

Light winds this morning could vary significantly in direction.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: MVFR or lower in developing showers from west to east through the day. S winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: IFR in rain, possibly heavy at times. Isolated thunderstorms possible. S winds 20-30 kt with gusts 25-45 kt, strongest near the coast. A few gusts up to 55 kt possible near the coast. Chance of LLWS.

Monday: MVFR or lower early in showers, then VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. W gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria from tonight through Saturday night as a weak pressure gradient remains in place.
Strong southerly winds develop Sunday into Sunday night. A storm watch remains in effect for most of the waters. The exception is portions of the Sound and Harbor, where a gale watch remains.

NW gales will remain possible on Monday as the gradient remains tight with the departing low and arriving high to the west.

Small craft advisory conditions appear likely during the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe, mainly on the ocean zones. Seas Tuesday remain elevated and don't look to drop below 5 feet until early Thursday morning. Additionally, breezy W/NW winds will result in gusts 25-30kt on the ocean and possibly the sheltered waters Tuesday through early Thursday.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through Saturday night.

Between 2 and 3 inches of rain is likely Sun into Monday morning.
Locally higher amounts in excess of 3 inches are possible.
Adjustments to the fcst are possible based on changes in the overall track, timing, and intensity of the system. A flood watch remains in effect for all by the Twin Forks. Widespread urban and poor drainage flooding is likely, with some areas of more significant flooding possible, including the flooding of some rivers and streams.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A strong cold front will bring increasing southerly flow late Sunday into Sunday night. The system brings potential for minor coastal flooding with the Monday morning high tide cycle.
However, the strongest southerly flow is most likely to occur between high tide cycles. Winds will quickly shift to the west early Monday morning, which will help keep water levels down during times of high tide.

Surge guidance has come to more of a consensus that much of the area should remain below minor flooding thresholds, but any changes in the forecast timing of the developing low may result in significant changes to the coastal flooding forecast.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179.
High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NYZ075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ331-335-338.
Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ332-340-345-350-353-355.

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Newburgh
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Sat -- 03:07 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:05 AM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:07 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:44 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:22 PM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
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Newburgh, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

West Point
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Sat -- 02:44 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:39 AM EST     2.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:07 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:21 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:56 PM EST     1.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Point, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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