Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Westerly, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:25PM Sunday July 5, 2020 12:53 PM EDT (16:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:10PMMoonset 5:31AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 1016 Am Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
This afternoon..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night and Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1016 Am Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres to build over the waters through Sunday. A cold front will push across the waters by Monday morning. High pressure returns for Monday afternoon into Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Westerly, RI
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location: 41.38, -71.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 051407 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1007 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low clouds will clear out during this morning, giving the region a few hours of dry weather. A cold front and upper-level trough will develop scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Some storms may become strong to severe. Weak high pressure follows Monday and moves off the coast Tuesday. Hot and humid conditions move in for the middle and end of next week with scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. Heat Advisories may be needed. Low pressure passing to our south Saturday could bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. With abundant moisture in place late in the week, any storms could produce locally torrential rainfall.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/.

10 AM Update .

No major changes with this update as previous forecast and discussion remain on track and capture the details very nicely.

Latest visible satellite imagery shows low clouds steadily eroding thanks to strong July sun. Can even see some TCU developing near KPVD and KLWM-KBVY . likely due to differential heating as low level moisture slowly lifts. Latest SPC mesoanalysis and surface obs show slightly dry airmass over western MA into NY with surface dew pts in the upper 50s. Meanwhile farther east dew pts in the low to mid 60s across much of CT/RI and central-eastern MA along with PWATs peaking around 1.5 inches. Once low level moisture erodes and gives way to sunshine HREF indicating MUCAPE up to 2,000 j/kg. This combined with mid level short wave/speed max will provide sufficient forcing for ascent along with marginal shear to sustain severe convection. HREF and SREF both have highest probs of strongest storms over eastern MA into RI and eastern CT this afternoon and early evening.

Given high CAPE/low shear environment main concerns are for strong to damaging winds along with large hail.

Previous Discussion .

** Scattered Strong/Severe Storms Mid-Aftn to Early Tonight **

Southeast flow on the western periphery of a surface high pressure over the Maritimes early this morning has again allowed for stratus clouds fog to advance inland. The inland extent of stratus lies generally east of a Willimantic to Worcester line. Further inland into the CT Valley in MA/CT, west to WSW flow has allowed for clearer conditions and also slightly lower dewpoints. While the low clouds look to hang on for a good part of the day across Cape Cod and the Islands, skies will start to trend clear from central MA/eastern CT on into RI, eastern and southeast MA through late this morning.

By afternoon, concerns continue for widely scattered to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. While the overall storm coverage may not be worse than scattered across Southern New England, and though some key details still remain unresolved - the progged environment in central and eastern parts of Southern New England is such that any storm that were to form this afternoon into early tonight has the potential to reach strong/severe levels quickly. A Marginal Risk is in place across parts of Southern New England per SPC.

A large-scale overview of the thunderstorm setup features prevailing northwest flow aloft over the Northeast, with satellite imagery showing evidence of a shortwave trough aloft early this AM over eastern Ontario. On the periphery of this feature is a plume of mid- level lapse rates on the order of 6.5 to near 7 C/km, reflected in 00z RAOBs across northern MI and in SPC's mesoanalysis. These values, while not substantially high, are ones that will help boost progged instability values to moderately strong levels (-6 to -8 LIs, with surface-based CAPEs in central and eastern parts of SNE on the order of 2000 to near 3000 J/kg, less further west due to afternoon mixing of lower dewpoints). Effective bulk shear values increase during the day and into early tonight to around 35 kt, owing to strengthening mid and upper level winds. These are values that support at least some persistent and sustained updrafts. A lower-level capping inversion is apparent in forecast soundings, and while it does weaken as the day progresses, its presence will likely limit thunderstorm coverage.

Looking at latest high resolution guidance/CAMs, there appear to be two somewhat distinct areas where storms may develop that are worth describing, even if some overlap exists between the two. Enhanced thunderstorm wording with small hail and gusty winds has been included for each area:

1) Pre-Frontal Trough: East of the CT River Valley

As soon as mid afternoon (roughly 2 PM to 6 PM), most models and particularly the CAMs pick up on a convergence zone/pre-frontal trough feature. This source of lift also appears defined by a differential heating gradient, separating the warmer/hotter and lower mixed-dewpoint air mass expected across interior New England into the CT Valley to the higher-dewpoint and stratus- plagued coastal eastern MA/RI. Exactly where this convergence zone sets up is still somewhat unclear. But recent trends in CAMs fire isolated to widely scattered storms in a corridor somewhere between a Willimantic to Worcester to Bedford line eastward to a Beverly to Boston to Providence line. It is possible that storms may develop as far west as Hartford to Chicopee but less certain. Moderately strong instability is likely and shear vector orientation at a 45 degree angle to this SW-NE boundary supports entirely cellular storm modes, with southeastward storm motions.

Storms could pose at least a hail and wind damage threat, with hail size potentially a little larger than 1" diameter. Locally- backed winds in vicinity of the boundary will also enhance low- level storm-relative helicities toward a very small but non-zero tornado risk; however weak low- level winds, high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates probably mitigate this potential.

2) Upper Shortwave/Cold Front: Merrimack Valley/Northeast MA

Trends in guidance have been to slow down the approach of the cold front until late in the day and more so tonight (thinking near or after 6 PM). These storms will stem from any activity which develops in VT into NH, focused by a cold front and upper trough energy. Storm coverage may actually be somewhat greater given the better upper support, but will be limited to northeastern portions of our forecast area and adjacent northeastern waters. Of some concern is recent guidance development of a weak low pressure area that moves from central NH into far northeast MA. Approach of that low may back surface winds enough to allow for a very-small-probability spin up tornado potential, in addition to locally strong winds and hail.

Though this isn't a severe weather outbreak, we nonetheless would encourage those with plans outdoors this afternoon into early tonight to keep close tabs on the weather. Temperatures today reach well into the 80s in the interior to lower 90s in the CT Valley, with upper 70s to lower 80s in the eastern and southern coasts.

SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. Tonight:

Showers and thunderstorms, some still strong, will likely be continuing into northeast MA and the northern waters until later this evening. As the surface low shifts east into the Gulf of Maine after 06z, winds will shift from SW to almost a due north. Drier conditions, somewhat lower dewpoints and clearing skies as post- frontal ridging noses southward from northern New England.

Monday:

Surface ridge of high pressure expected to cover most if not all of Southern New England with light northerly winds. Expecting mostly sunny conditions and generally dry weather for most of the region. One area that we do need to watch for showers and possible storms is towards the Hartford area into central CT and southern RI later in the day, where a lurking warm or stationary boundary could focus thunderstorms. It isn't clear exactly where this feature sets up, though a very warm and unstable air mass will likely reside south and west of it. Will carry lower-end PoPs at no better than 25% during the afternoon. Overall thinking Monday should be dry for many, with highs mainly in the 80s with upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Big Picture .

Zonal upper flow is featured through most of the week with multiple shortwaves moving through this flow. Closed upper low develops off the Carolinas midweek and moves up the coast by Saturday.

Contours at 500-mb will be above normal through the week, but may drop back to near-normal levels Saturday. Expect above-normal temperatures mid to late week.

Model mass fields show good agreement through Thursday, then diverge. Even so, the overall timing of features looks similar through the period. Moderate confidence in the forecast.

Daily details .

Monday night and Tuesday .

High pressure from the Canadian Maritimes maintains subsidence and a cool southeast surface flow over Southern New England Monday night. This will maintain fair skies overnight. With dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s, expect min temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The high moves off to the east Tuesday, with the surface low turning from the south. This is enough of a marine flow in Eastern MA to limit the depth of the mixed layer to 925 mb, while western areas may mix deeper. Based on forecast temps aloft, anticipate max sfc temps around 80 or the low 80s, possibly 70s along the immediate coast due to sea breezes. Meanwhile, deeper mixing should support max sfc temps inland in the mid 80s. The other Tuesday concern is convection. A warm front approaches from the west, with CAPE of 1000- 2000 J/Kg over CT and Western MA . possibly to Worcester. Not much forcing aside from daytime heating of an unstable airmass. The forecast will show chance pops across CT and Western/Central MA in the afternoon/evening.

Wednesday through Friday .

Increasing heat and humidity during this period with dew points climbing into the upper 60s . and around 70 by Thursday. Temps aloft support max surface temps around 90 inland Wednesday, then in the mid 90s Thursday and possibly Friday. The resulting Heat Index values would climb to the mid 90s Thursday and Friday, and may eventually require a Heat Advisory.

Convection will also be a concern this period. CAPE reaches 1000- 2000 J/Kg Wednesday and Thursday, and around 1000 J/Kg Friday. PW values will climb to at least 1.5 inches and at times 2 inches. Will forecast scattered thunderstorms each day, with local downpours.

Saturday .

Differing solutions on Saturday's weather. The GFS shows coastal low pressure racing up the coast, spreading showers into Srn New England as early as Friday afternoon. The ECMWF shows the same coastal system, but moving up the coast 12-18 hours slower with showers reaching Srn New England early Saturday morning. Will go with the slower onset, with a chance of showers/thunder on Saturday. Surface winds turn from the east and southeast, a marine flow with shallow mixing, so expect max temps in the low to mid 80s.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

14z update . no change to previous forecast/TAFs. Previous trends remain on track. Earlier discussion below.

===========================================================

Today: High confidence in trends, moderate on timing and location of TSRA.

Though about 15z, ongoing IFR/LIFR fog and stratus eastern airports to shift east and/or lift to VFR. Exception is across the Cape where it will take longer for improvement to occur.

Starting around/after 17z, focus shifts to TSRA potential. Thinking 17-22z, widely scattered storms pop in a corridor between BED-ORH-IJD eastward to BVY-BOS-PVD. Storms to move southeast, and any storm that can form should become strong/severe quickly with hail, strong wind gusts and brief IFR-LIFR vsby. After 22z, focus then for TSRA at somewhat greater coverage N of BOS-BED and into adjacent northern waters. Hinted at potential nearby TSRA with VCTS but this will need refinement.

SE to E winds near BOS/BED around 5-9 kt, mainly S/SW winds PVD to Cape airports around 4-9 kt, while WSW/W winds for ORH, BDL and BAF.

Tonight: High confidence.

Should still have TSRA in the northeast waters thru about 04z. TAFs should trend VFR. Winds shift from SW/WSW to northerly around 4-8 kt after 06z Mon, as a surface low/cold front moves off the waters.

Monday: High confidence.

Mainly VFR under continued northerly winds (possible sea-breeze at BOS). Psbl late-day SHRA/TSRA at BDL and HFD near warm front but low confidence on timing and development.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR/LIFR stratus burns off 12-15z. Nearby TSRA 17-00z, timing will need refinement.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Lower-prob TSRA ~17-20z, better chance east.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance TSRA, slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA, patchy BR.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA, patchy BR.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

MARINE. Today through Monday: High confidence.

Winds and seas to remain below small craft advisory levels. Stratus and low clouds continue this morning on all waters. Improvement in both will be slow to occur - generally late in the day. As a heads- up to mariners, the potential for strong to locally severe storms may exist across parts of Ipswich and Mass Bays into Stellwagen Bank late this afternoon into tonight. Thus some potential exists for MWS/SMWs.

Passage of a low pressure induces northerly winds around 15-20 kt late tonight into Monday. Seas look to remain at or below 4 ft on all waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Loconto NEAR TERM . WTB/Nocera/Loconto SHORT TERM . Loconto LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/Loconto MARINE . WTB/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 14 mi53 min S 8.9 G 11 72°F 65°F1013.9 hPa (-0.6)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 24 mi53 min 72°F 68°F1014.8 hPa (+0.0)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 27 mi53 min S 9.9 G 12 73°F 70°F1014.1 hPa (-0.9)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 28 mi53 min SSW 12 G 14 71°F 63°F1014.3 hPa (-0.6)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi68 min SSW 1.9 77°F 1014 hPa69°F
PRUR1 32 mi59 min 71°F 68°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi53 min SW 4.1 G 8.9 74°F 1014.8 hPa (-0.8)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 35 mi53 min 71°F 72°F1014 hPa (-1.0)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 37 mi53 min S 8 G 8.9 75°F 69°F1014.2 hPa (-0.8)
PVDR1 37 mi53 min S 8.9 G 9.9 74°F 1014.3 hPa (-0.8)69°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 41 mi53 min WSW 5.1 G 6 73°F 1014.2 hPa (-1.0)
FRXM3 41 mi53 min 75°F 68°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 42 mi53 min SSW 12 G 12 1015.6 hPa (-0.4)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi53 min 74°F 73°F1014.5 hPa (-1.0)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 47 mi27 min 68°F2 ft
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 49 mi33 min SSW 9.7 G 12 71°F 72°F1015.1 hPa68°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI3 mi60 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast78°F66°F67%1014.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT12 mi57 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F68°F84%1014.2 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI19 mi57 minSSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F64°F79%1014.9 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi59 minSSW 6 mi75°F68°F79%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW8SW6SW9SW8W6SW7S4SW4S4SW4CalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N65NE5NE7NE11

Tide / Current Tables for Westerly, Pawcatuck River, Rhode Island
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Westerly
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 04:27 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:56 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:25 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:08 PM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.91.10.4-0.1-00.51.322.52.72.52.11.61.10.60.30.30.91.82.73.33.63.4

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 03:00 AM EDT     -3.81 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:15 AM EDT     3.04 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:22 PM EDT     -3.13 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:24 PM EDT     3.13 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-2-3.3-3.8-3.4-2.3-0.712.432.92.10.8-0.8-2.3-3.1-3-2.1-0.80.82.33.132.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.