Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Westerly, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:36PM Thursday April 22, 2021 9:21 AM EDT (13:21 UTC) Moonrise 2:15PMMoonset 3:52AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 716 Am Edt Thu Apr 22 2021
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon and Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Thu Apr 22 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Strong low pres in the maritimes will bring gale force westerly winds through this evening. Winds slowly subside into Fri and Sat as high pres builds south of the waters. Low pres from the mid atlc coast will lift ne across the waters Sun, then move to the maritimes Mon. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Westerly, RI
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location: 41.38, -71.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 221113 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 713 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. Windy and much cooler weather in wake of a cold front today, then a warming trend Friday into Saturday. A coastal storm will bring periods of rain Sunday followed by blustery and drier conditions Monday. Dry and warmer weather expected into midweek as high pressure builds into the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 710 AM update .

Radar showing some flurries across northern CT and moving into SW RI with narrow bands of sct snow showers to the west in eastern NY and the Berkshires. The flurries will gradually dissipate as deepening mixing in the boundary layer brings lower dewpoints. Otherwise, cold pool aloft will result in diurnal cu expanding across SNE with a few snow showers or flurries confined mainly to the Berkshires. Windy and unseasonably cool day with soundings supporting gusts 30-40 mph with a few gusts over 45 mph possible over higher terrain. Current forecast on track.

Previous discussion .

Highlights

* Elevated Fire Weather potential across much of southern New England with strong W to WNW winds. A few isolated rain showers cannot be ruled out across the interior.

Cyclonic flow across southern New England today. A cutoff over northern New England will lift into New Brunswick by this evening. A shortwave trough will rotate around the cutoff into northern New England. This in combination with some diurnal heating may be enough to generate a few isolated rain showers. At the surface we remain between a deep low to the northeast and high pressure over the Southeastern US.

Will continue to see strong NW to WNW cold air advection across southern New England. Should see a roughly -5 to -10 degree Celsius airmass in place over southern New England. The pressure gradient remains quite tight due to the setup and should have a fairly strong 35-45 kt low level jet in place aloft. Have gone with the HRRRE and NAMNest guidance and bumped the gusts up a bit more based on GFS/NAM/RAP and NAMNest Bufkit soundings. This keeps gusts sub Wind Advisory criteria maxing out around 35-40 mph, but think there could be some localized 45+ mph gusts.

Have made a few other adjustments to the forecast given the strong mixing within the boundary layer. There should be some downsloping given the WNW to NW flow aloft, so have gone with the 75th percentile of guidance for high temperatures. This looked reasonable given that there will be some cloudiness with the shortwave and diurnal heating. The result is still temperatures much cooler than normal for this time of year with readings in the 40s for much of the region. There could be a few 50 degree readings across the CT River Valley and eastern MA. Given the dry airmass and strong mixing brought down dew points to the 10th percentile of guidance. See the Fire Weather section below for more information.

Given the shortwave moving in, cold cyclonic flow and diurnal heating think that there could be a few isolated rain showers across the interior. There really is not much moisture to work with as PWATs are in the 0.25 inch range. Have capped PoPs at a slight chance.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Highlights

* Dry and quiet weather continues tonight through Friday, but will remain gusty. Anticipate another day of elevated fire weather potential across southern New England on Friday with temperatures moderating.

Cutoff over New Brunswick will continue to lift northward tonight. To the west a ridge axis will build from the Mississippi River Valley into the central Great Lakes. The ridge builds into the eastern Great Lakes by late Friday. At the surface southern New England remains between the deep low to the north and high pressure to the south. This keeps the weather dry with gusty winds.

Tonight .

Cyclonic flow persists through this period, but should see decreasing cloud cover as high pressure nudges in from the south. Still have a tight pressure gradient in place across southern New England, so should see the gusty winds persist. There is some indication by Bufkit sounding profiles that the boundary layer decouples and the gusty winds cease per the RAP/NAM guidance. Have leaned toward the NAMNest and GFS, which keeps the gusty winds. Did lower the gusts a bit as the mixing will not be as deep.

Temperatures will remain cold with 850 hPa temperatures around -5 degrees Celsius. Went with the 25th percentile of guidance as this shouldn't be a good radiational cooling night given the mechanical mixing. Lows bottoming out in the 20s across the higher elevation and 30s elsewhere. Not out of the question a few spots across northern CT, RI into SE MA need a Freeze Warning. Have kept the Freeze Watch for now as low temperatures get right to 32 and am not confident enough to go Warning at this point in time.

Friday .

Should see dry and quiet weather across the region, but will remain gusty. Temperatures moderating as W to WNW flow aloft advects in warmer air. This will bring in +3 to +6 degree Celsius 925 hPa air. Given the flow should see some downsloping once again. Have gone with the 75th percentile for high temperatures. The result is temperatures maxing out in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Given the tight pressure gradient and strong mixing in place have once again lowered dew points to the 10th percentile of guidance. Will still be gusty, but not as gusty as today. Will see gusts topping out between 30-35 mph. Will most likely need to highlight an elevated fire weather potential across southern New England once again. See the Fire Weather section below for more details.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Highlights

* Mild and dry Saturday * Cooler with periods of rain Sunday * Drier and blustery Monday * Dry with a warming trend Tue/Wed

Friday night into Saturday .

Dry weather will prevail with high pres to the south and westerly flow in place. Lots of sunshine Sat although mid/high clouds ahead of next system will begin to move into the region in the afternoon. Nice warming trend on Sat with deep mixing up to 800 mb. Expect highs approaching 70 for many locations, cooler along the immediate south coast and higher terrain.

Saturday night into Sunday night .

Southern stream shortwave energy approaches from the Ohio valley with attendant parent low likely giving way to coastal low developing along mid Atlc coast and lifting NE toward SNE during Sun. There remains differences in storm track which will impact coverage and amount of rainfall as well as wind potential along the coast. Deterministic GFS and ECMWF bring a decent slug of rain late Sat night into Sun, while GGEM keeps the rain mostly to the south with dry weather. Majority of GEFS members are clustered further south with low track with heavier rainfall to the south, while most ECMWF members are closer to the coast with a more widespread rainfall. We leaned toward wetter solution but rainfall amounts remain uncertain and it is possible this ends up as a lighter rainfall event.

There may be a period of gusty winds along the coast but this will depend on the storm track and resulting location of the low level jet which will also impact coastal flood potential. However, even with a stronger low level jet, coastal flood threat appears to be limited with this storm. The highest surge is expected to occur after the Sun morning high tide. For the Sun evening high tide, winds will have already shifted to NW with decreasing surge.

Monday through Wednesday .

Blustery and dry weather Mon with seasonable temps. Guidance is indicating northern stream shortwave amplifies with closed low developing to the east Monday but model consensus is that the upper low moves far enough to the east to allow upstream ridging to build into the region toward midweek which would mean a pronounced warming trend with temps well into 70s Wed and potential for even warmer temps Thu.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today . High confidence.

VFR conditions expected with strong WNW/W winds. Should have speeds of 15-25 kts with gusts between 30-40 kts. Expect to have some cloud bases of 4-6 kft. Also, cannot completely rule out an isolated diurnally driven shower given the cyclonic flow and per CAMs. Have not added the shower mention in the latest TAFs.

Tonight . High confidence.

VFR with clearing skies and gusty winds gradually diminishing. Winds remaining out of the W at 10-15 kts could still see gusts of 15-25 kts. The highest gusts will be found across the higher terrain, Cape Cod and the Islands.

Friday . High confidence.

VFR with clear skies. Still gusty out of the W with sustained speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts of 25-30 kts.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in TAF. Could have some 40 kt gusts or slightly higher during the afternoon into the early evening.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF. Could see some 40 kt gusts or slightly higher during the afternoon into the early evening.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance RA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. * Gale Warnings remain in effect into tonight.

Today . High confidence

Westerly winds of 20-30 kts across the waters today with gale force gusts between 35-40 kts. Seas between 6-10 ft.

Tonight . High confidence

Westerly winds persist generally between 20-25 kts. Expecting the gale force gusts around 35 kts to diminish to 25-30 kts late. Seas between 6-10 ft.

Friday . High confidence

Westerly winds at 15-25 kts. Should see gusts around 20-30 kts. Cannot completely rule out occasional gale force gusts to 35 kts to the south and southeast of Nantucket during the afternoon. Seas 6-10 ft. Northeastern waters will see seas lower to 2-5 ft.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Rain.

Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

FIRE WEATHER. * Elevated Fire Weather Potential across much of southern New England today. Will likely need to highlight this risk again on Friday.

As highlighted above in the near and short term sections. Both today and Friday will feature gusty westerly winds and deep boundary layer mixing. The vast majority of areas did not receive 0.5 inches of precipitation from the storms on Wednesday. Given this coupled with the strong winds and low relatively humidities have gone with a Special Weather Statement to highlight the Elevated Fire Weather Potential per coordination with fire weather partners. Should see minimum relative humidities fall to 20 to 35 percent with gusts of 35 to 40 mph. Not out of the question there could be some isolated 45+ mph gusts, but this should be more localized in nature.

Similar setup on Friday, but the gusts won't be as strong as Thursday. Winds will remain out of the west with gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Minimum relative humidities between 20 to 40 percent.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Freeze Watch from this evening through late tonight for MAZ013- 017-018. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ230>237-250-251- 254>256.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/BL NEAR TERM . KJC/BL SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . KJC AVIATION . KJC/BL MARINE . KJC/BL FIRE WEATHER .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 14 mi41 min WNW 17 G 21 37°F 1006.2 hPa12°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 14 mi51 min 37°F 1007.3 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 24 mi51 min 38°F 46°F1007.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 27 mi51 min W 16 G 25 37°F 48°F1005.8 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 28 mi51 min W 16 G 22 37°F 47°F1005.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi96 min WNW 12 37°F 1006 hPa24°F
PRUR1 32 mi51 min 39°F 23°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi51 min WNW 9.9 G 18 38°F 1006.1 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 35 mi51 min 36°F 52°F1005.1 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 37 mi51 min NW 9.9 G 18 38°F 47°F1005.4 hPa
PVDR1 37 mi51 min WNW 13 G 24 38°F 1005.5 hPa22°F
FRXM3 41 mi51 min 39°F 29°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 41 mi51 min W 24 G 29 37°F 1005.1 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 42 mi81 min W 27 G 32 1006.6 hPa (+2.3)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi51 min 38°F 51°F1005.8 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 47 mi81 min W 23 G 31 38°F 46°F5 ft
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 47 mi55 min 45°F7 ft
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 49 mi31 min W 21 G 27 39°F 47°F6 ft1008.7 hPa26°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI3 mi28 minW 7 G 1510.00 miOvercast37°F20°F50%1006.7 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT12 mi25 minWNW 14 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F21°F48%1006.8 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI19 mi25 minW 15 G 2510.00 miA Few Clouds38°F21°F51%1007.3 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi27 minW 17 G 25 mi40°F23°F51%1007.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Westerly, Pawcatuck River, Rhode Island
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Westerly
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Thu -- 12:18 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:48 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:17 PM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.81.31.92.42.72.72.52.11.61.20.80.40.30.61.31.92.42.62.62.31.91.41

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Thu -- 02:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:53 AM EDT     2.18 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:20 AM EDT     -2.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:25 PM EDT     2.42 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:46 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:49 PM EDT     -2.74 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-1.1-0.111.92.21.81.10.2-1-2.1-2.7-2.5-1.8-0.70.51.72.42.31.80.9-0.3-1.6-2.5

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