Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Westerly, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 6:56PM Thursday September 16, 2021 6:11 PM EDT (22:11 UTC) Moonrise 5:01PMMoonset 1:15AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 427 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Saturday evening...
Tonight..E winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun and Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon through Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 427 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A coastal low near the benchmark may bring unsettled weather, building seas, and increased winds to the waters later Friday into Saturday. High pressure builds over the waters on Sunday into much of the upcoming workweek. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Westerly, RI
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location: 41.38, -71.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 161932 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 332 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A stalled cold front remains to our southeast overnight. Cloudy and foggy conditions will bring us into the weekend before a coastal low tracks close to southern New England. Impacts will be low for our area, but the storm will generate building waves and surf and a modest increase in northeast winds Friday night into Saturday night for coastal New England. After the tropical system passes to our southeast, high pressure remains in control with milder than average temperatures and several days of dry weather through at least midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

Low ceilings will be the continued story of the evening and overnight hours as showers continue to dissipate across the region. Dominant, light, northeast onshore flow, high dewpoints, low level moisture, and a cooling boundary layer are a recipe for fog overnight. The longer nights of late September will also aid in fog formation given more time will be spent during periods of low dewpoint depressions. Uncertainty lies in exactly where fog will form, as these same conditions typically generate a low stratus deck across eastern areas, such as Boston and Cape Ann. Some pockets of dense fog is possible in areas where cloud cover is not as thick, such as the Connecticut River Valley and central Connecticut.

Dewpoints and significant cloud cover will be the dictating factors regarding overnight low temps. Dewpoints are expected to remain in the 60s west to near 70 across Cape Cod and the Islands overnight. Given poor radiational cooling conditions, we will see overnight lows in the 60s region wide. A few lingering showers may affect portions of the south coast given minor instability (100 J/kg MUCAPE) associated with the stalled cold front to our southeast, but most locations will remain dry through the morning; aided by a subsidence inversion.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/.

Friday .

A ridge axis continues to center itself over southern New England, which will aid in a mostly dry, but conditions remain largely the same as they will be overnight Thursday. Continued northeast flow and low level moisture will keep ceilings low across most of the area through Friday afternoon. Low clouds finally begin to loosen their grip on the region by Friday afternoon.

Given that overnight lows only fall into the 60s, temperatures will not have too far to climb towards seasonable conditions. While there will be more clouds than sun, a few more breaks of compared to Thursday will allow many places to reach into the mid and upper 70s. Isolated showers are again possible, but blanket slight chance PoPs to account for the outside chance of precip, but most areas will again remain dry Friday Night.

Skies will finally begin to clear by daybreak on Saturday, but fog will again impact the region as northeast flow persists. Given almost identical conditions to Thursday night, low temperatures will fall into the 60s once again. Dewpoints will be slightly higher across western MA, so even our coolest spots will only fall into the mid 60s.

A tropical system being monitored currently monitored by the NHC is expected to pass to our southeast beginning Friday night. The impacts from this system are expected to be low in southern New England. The primary threat will be choppy surf and rip currents, primarily at our south facing beaches.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Highlights:

* Scattered showers with cool and breezy conditions on Saturday before dry and seasonable conditions return on Sunday. * Dry weather and above normal temperatures likely heading into middle of next week with high pressure in control.

* Could have our first real taste of autumn late next week.

Details:

Saturday .

The potential tropical cyclone mentioned in the short-term discussion will track near or just south of the 70W/40N benchmark on Saturday. This would mean best chances of rain across southeast New England, though rains in most areas may prove more intermittent. Otherwise, with onshore flow, expect mostly cloudy, breezy and cool conditions with interval of rain showers along with increased swells and heightened risk of rip currents. While effects and impacts will ultimately hinge on the track and intensity of the cyclone, right now the impacts to Southern New England appear minimal.

As heights rise behind the exiting cyclone, there should be significant improvement on Sunday. Sunshine may even return on Saturday afternoon if the low pressure system is faster to exit. Dew points fall from the 60s into the 40s and with sunshine and seasonable conditions returning, it will feel very comfortable for outdoor activities on Sunday. For reference, normal daytime highs are in the low to mid 70s.

Monday into Wednesday .

Monday looks to feature mostly dry and seasonable conditions with high pressure in control. Then mid-level ridging amplifies over the eastern US, with global guidance ensembles showing 588+ Dm ridge building into Southern New England by middle of next week. With mean 850mb temperatures in the low to mid teens, expect daytime highs to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, which would be 5 to 10 degrees above climatological normal. Have gone with NBM guidance for now given we are so far out but it is possible that daytime highs will be increased in future updates with southwest flow aloft boosting downsloping adiabatic warming. In fact, the Climate Prediction Center 6 to 10 day outlook features above 80 to 90 percent probability of above normal temperatures. So even as we head into astronomical fall for the Northern Hemisphere (beginning September 22), it will feel more like late August. PWATs look to be slightly below to near normal so expect generally mild days and cool nights given the dry air mass.

Thursday .

There are increasing signs that we could have our first real taste of fall heading into the latter part of the upcoming work week. Some deterministic guidance are showing 850mb temperatures in Celsius crashing from the mid teens to the low single digits, with sub- zero temperatures just north of our area. Trough digging into the Great Lakes will eventually erode the ridge over Eastern US by Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Models still differ on the timing of the front and strength of the dynamics. But it is reasonable to expect a line of showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the advancing cold front. This far out, it is too premature to speculate on the potential for severe weather but it looks increasingly likely that the stretch of above normal temperatures will come to an abrupt end by late in the work week.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight . Moderate confidence.

Trending down to IFR/LIFR along with patchy fog. Mainly dry weather. Light ENE winds.

Friday . Moderate confidence.

IFR/LIFR to begin the day, but cigs lifting to MVFR/VFR during the afternoon. Mainly dry weather with modest ENE winds.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence. NE flow combined with high humidity will encourage IFR and possibly LIFR ceilings to develop through Friday morning.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence. Breaks of sun and MVFR conditions during the early afternoon will transition to VFR overnight. Fog develops overnight.

Outlook /Friday night through Sunday/

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night through Tuesday: VFR.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight . ridge of high pressure offshore builds across the waters. Patchy dense fog will yield poor vsby at times. Light ENE winds. A spot shower is possible across the southern waters.

Friday . ridge of high pressure remains across the waters, yielding light ENE winds and mainly dry weather, a spot shower is again possible. By 12Z, waves begin to build as a tropical system approaches from out south. A small craft advisory has been hoisted starting at this time.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. A small craft advisory will be in place for our southern waters.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. A small craft advisory will need to be considered to cover this period.

Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. A small craft may need to be considered for this period.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ235-237-254>256.

SYNOPSIS . Chai/KS NEAR TERM . KS SHORT TERM . KS LONG TERM . Chai AVIATION . KS MARINE . KS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 14 mi61 min NE 8 G 11 72°F 1022.1 hPa55°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 14 mi71 min 72°F 71°F1024.2 hPa (-0.4)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 24 mi71 min 71°F 72°F1023.3 hPa (-0.3)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 27 mi71 min NE 11 G 13 72°F 72°F1024.5 hPa (+0.0)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 28 mi71 min NE 6 G 9.9 73°F 70°F1024.1 hPa (+0.0)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi86 min E 6 73°F 1025 hPa68°F
PRUR1 32 mi71 min 72°F 72°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi71 min ENE 7 G 8.9 72°F 1025.1 hPa (+0.0)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 35 mi71 min 71°F 73°F1024.3 hPa (+0.0)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 37 mi71 min E 7 G 8.9 72°F 69°F1024.9 hPa (-0.0)
PVDR1 37 mi71 min ENE 6 G 9.9 73°F 1025 hPa (-0.0)
FRXM3 41 mi71 min 71°F 71°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 41 mi71 min NNE 11 G 13 73°F 1024.7 hPa (+0.0)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 42 mi71 min NNE 17 G 18 1024.4 hPa (-0.5)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi71 min 73°F 71°F1024.9 hPa (+0.0)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 47 mi71 min E 18 G 21 72°F 73°F3 ft
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 47 mi45 min 69°F3 ft
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 49 mi41 min ENE 14 G 18 69°F 70°F1023 hPa67°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI3 mi18 minNNE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F66°F87%1024.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT12 mi15 minNE 910.00 miA Few Clouds72°F66°F82%1023.7 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI19 mi15 minENE 910.00 miA Few Clouds69°F65°F87%1024.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi17 minENE 8 mi72°F67°F84%1024.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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S6CalmS4S6SW6S3SW3N105N7N7N7NE7E10E11E9E66N6NE5
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Tide / Current Tables for Westerly, Pawcatuck River, Rhode Island
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Westerly
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Thu -- 12:23 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:30 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:18 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.81.41.92.32.52.42.11.81.40.90.60.61.11.72.42.93.23.22.92.41.91.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:09 AM EDT     2.39 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:20 AM EDT     -2.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:32 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:31 PM EDT     2.60 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:54 PM EDT     -3.16 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.6-1.7-0.4122.42.21.60.6-0.8-2-2.6-2.5-1.8-0.70.61.92.52.52.11.1-0.3-1.8-2.8

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