Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 2:33 AM   Moonset 12:52 PM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 330 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 58 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KPBZ 020803 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 403 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather with above normal temperatures continueS to close out the week. Rain and thunderstorm chances return late Friday through the weekend and into next week. A slight cool down in temperatures for the weekend before a rebound is favored heading into next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry with above normal temperatures continuing.

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Another dry day with above normal temperatures on tap for Thursday.
Upper ridge axis builds with high pressure centered just to the north. The cold front that pushed through overnight Wednesday night will stall across the Mason Dixon line before lifting back into the area as a warm front with low pressure off to our west. The primary challenge will be how far north it gets, and thus how warm we get, as the high will likely work to suppress its northward progression.
Latest ensemble guidance hangs it around or just south of Pittsburgh providing 80+% probability of exceeding 80F and while locations north of Pittsburgh more likely sit in the upper 70s.

With little cloud cover, plenty of insolation, and mixing up to ~800 mb, have leaned toward the low end of guidance for dews with the NBM's bias to undermix clear sky days. Upper level clouds increase tonight as moisture advects in in southwesterly flow aloft and lows sit in the upper 50s north of I-80 and low 60s further south. Some low probability showers may try to clip our eastern Ohio zones after sunset, but dry air should win out.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled pattern returns for the weekend with rain chances beginning Friday night continuing through Sunday.
- Chance of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.
- Temperatures drop, but still remain above normal.
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The pattern then becomes more unsettled into the weekend as ensembles shunt the upper ridge beginning with a leading shortwave arriving on Friday. With the ridge pushing off to the east, deep layer southwest flow will increase moisture and showers and thunderstorms develop Friday afternoon ahead of approaching low pressure. Hi-res ensemble probability for >500 J/kg of CAPE increases to 50-60% Friday afternoon, but further destabilization should be limited given fairly consistent ensemble agreement in a good amount of cloud coverage around. In addition, weak deep layer shear (low probabilities for >30 knots) and warm mid-levels potentially putting a lid on updraft growth will limit concerns for severe weather. Friday will be the warmest day of the week despite the increasing cloud cover with widespread mid 80s likely in deep southwest flow. Highs tapping into the low 90s aren't out of the question either with 850 mb temperatures of 16-18C. Latest ensemble probability is 50-70% for Pittsburgh south and west and some record highs may be approached (see Climate section).

Rain chances continue through the weekend with several more rounds of shortwaves accompanying the passing low pressure. With the best overlap of forcing for ascent on Saturday, it appears that the daytime hours will likely be the wettest of the weekend. Ensemble probability for >1" of rain in any 24 hour period remains 30% or lower, but that said, the combination of a deep saturated profile characterized by mean precipitable water values between 1.2-1.4" (nearing the daily climatological max) and modest instability could result in periods of heavier rain with any convective elements and thus a localized flood threat especially for urban and low lying areas on Saturday. Spread in ensemble 24 hour QPF ending Saturday night depicts this uncertainty with mean values around 0.5-0.75" but the potential for up to 1.75" exists on the upper end of the spectrum. The Weather Prediction Center has maintained the Marginal Risk (1/5) for excessive rainfall on Saturday. Sunday will feature continuing rain chances, but latest ensemble runs favor the second half of the weekend to see lower amounts. All told, ensemble probability for >1" total through Sunday night sits around 50-60%.

Thick cloud coverage through the weekend will hold temperatures in check, but still above average, in the 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances continue into early next week but more uncertainty lends lower confidence.
- Temperatures favored to remain above normal.
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A brief lull in the precip is favored late Sunday night into early Monday morning as upper ridging slides through and surface high pressure meanders on by. Uncertainty with its strength and timing due to ensemble differences in a passing upper wave to the north and another digging shortwave and associated low pressure moving across the Tennessee Valley lends lower confidence to the start of the next workweek, but regardless rain chances ramp back up later Monday. A stronger ridge and thus less rainfall is the most likely ensemble solution at this time, but a quicker breakdown of it could give us another decent shot of rain through Tuesday.
The amplified pattern continues into mid-week with unsettled weather in store.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

Outlook
The next chance for restrictions comes late Friday into early Saturday with passing low pressure.

CLIMATE
Some record high temperatures may be approached on Friday.
(* denotes current forecast temperature exceeds value)

Record High Year Pittsburgh 95 1887 Wheeling 90 1942 Morgantown 88* 1965, 2012 New Philadelphia 89 2012 Zanesville 91 1938 Dubois 84 2012

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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