Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cold Spring, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly in the evening and overnight, and again Sunday afternoon and evening.

3) Relatively cooler temperatures into the weekend with a more significant cool down early next week to unseasonable levels.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Deep layer high pressure persists over the Eastern Seaboard leading to west-southwest flow at the surface and the continuation of well above normal temperatures. By Friday, the ridge begins to shift eastward ahead of an upper trough and attendant cold front. The breakdown of the ridge, shifting wind directions, and cloud cover will reduce high temperatures by around 5 to 10 degrees compared to earlier in the week, but will still be above normal until the cold front passes through Friday night.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Earlier convection over Central New York largely dissipated under strong subsidence with high pressure dominant over the East. A second short wave aloft will pass to the north late tonight, which may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Connecticut along the thermal trough. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday night as a cold front moves through the region.

H5 shortwave passes through the mainly zonal flow across New England on Friday. Associated cloud cover and precipitation chances will mitigate highs somewhat relative to recent warmth, with Friday highs in the upper 70s inland and low 70s across the coastal plain.
Thereafter, a more potent mid level closed low dives south out of central Canada Sunday-Monday bringing with it shot of colder air for Sunday- Tuesday of next week. The coldest day of the period looks to be Monday, with highs in the 50s across the board and general warmup thereafter into midweek. NBM spread for high temperatures is on the order of 5 degrees for that period, indicating some consensus in the ensemble guidance. The coldest night looks to be Monday night, with subfreezing temperatures possible across parts of the interior.


KEY MESSAGE 3
Weak frontal system with some support aloft from a mid level shortwave on Friday will increase shower chances across most of the CWA Some shear, but very little instability for late afternoon per model soundings should make any thunder potential conditional on destabilization. On Sunday, a stronger cold front is progged to move through bringing another chance of rain during the afternoon with perhaps some wet snow mixing in post front by early Monday, especially north and west of NYC. NBM probabilities of more than 0.5" of precipitation are only around 20-30%, owing to quick moving, mainly light event.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure will remain in place to the south through the period. As weak low pressure and a trailing cold front move across upstate New York today, a prefrontal trough will extend southward into the area this afternoon and evening.

VFR for much the TAF period. There will be a chance of showers/tstms with brief MVFR/IFR conditions this evening and the first part of tonight. The best chances will be north of the NYC terminals and most of the CAMs have backed off on the precip reaching the NYC terminals.

Winds will be from the SW around 10kt kt inland and S along the coast this afternoon, with some gusts over 20 kt at the NYC metros north/west and with the sea breeze at KJFK/KISP. Winds diminish to less than 10 kt by 00Z-01Z Thu. Winds become light and variable in many spots tonight, then increase again on Thursday to 8-15kt with some gusts to near 20kt.

Low chance of fog tonight which may bring flight categories down to MVFR or possibly IFR.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance for a shower at the NYC terminals this evening, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday: VFR. Gusty S winds.

Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon.

Monday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Waves across the eastern ocean waters may briefly swell to around 5 ft Fri afternoon, otherwise conditions will remain below SCA level into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will bring near SCA conditions Sunday into Monday.

CLIMATE
Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:

Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024

Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:

Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023

Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012

Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002.
KISP: 61/2002

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.