Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Vermilion, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:00PM Friday December 6, 2019 1:33 PM EST (18:33 UTC) Moonrise 2:21PMMoonset 1:49AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ145 Expires:201912061515;;928824 Fzus51 Kcle 060858 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 358 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez144-145-061515- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 358 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Cloudy this morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 39 degrees, off cleveland 42 degrees, and off erie 41 degrees.
LEZ145


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vermilion, OH
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location: 41.41, -82.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 061758 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1258 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak clipper system will move through the Great Lakes region today and exit off the New England coast tonight. High pressure will return to the area for Saturday and remain under its influence through Sunday. An area of low pressure will develop over the southern Plains on Sunday night and extend a warm front into the area for Monday. This low will move northeast along the warm front and enter the Great Lakes region for Monday night, extending an associated cold front across the area on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Cold front is now exiting to the southeast of the forecast area at this time. Come clearing is pushing south into the northwest tier counties this afternoon and the clearing trend will slowly take place across the area this evening into tomorrow morning with the northeast being the last to clear out. Made some changes to cloud cover and temperatures for this afternoon to reflect current trends.

Previous Discussion . A weak clipper system is sliding through the northern Great Lakes this morning and will continue east-southeast through Upstate New York this afternoon and eventually off the New England coast this evening. This system will miss the area well to the north during the daytime hours and any precipitation will be with the associated cold front with some help from Lake Erie in the snow belt region. With that, have dialed back PoPs for today from categorical to just a mix of slight chance to chance for NE OH and NW PA. Temperatures today will get into the 40s ahead of the front before falling with the cold frontal passage. With warm temperatures trapped close to the surface, expecting any early precipitation to be more rain than snow with some mix closer to the front.

Once the clipper and cold front pass to the east, lake effect processes will attempt to set up over the region as 850 mb temperatures settle into the -8 to -10 C range. Recent trends are that it will take a few hours for the atmosphere to re-saturate behind the cold frontal passage and lake effect snow will have trouble developing until the evening hours and so have highest PoPs around 00z with a brief period of likely snow. Dry air surges in quickly Friday night and snow should be done by day break on Saturday morning. Snow accumulations look low as snow will be scattered in nature with perhaps an inch of snow possible in the hills of Erie County, PA. High pressure builds into the region on Saturday and will keep the area dry, while cooler air remains over the region. Temperatures will struggle to approach normals in the upper 30s on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Surface high pressure will be located over Pennsylvania Saturday evening, building to the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Sunday morning. Winds will start out nearly calm in eastern areas Saturday evening but a light southerly wind will develop through the overnight. Passing mid and high cloud expected at times on Saturday night, giving way to an expanding stratus deck on Sunday. A warm front lifts north across the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks out of the northern Plains towards Hudson Bay. Despite the cloud cover, southerly flow and warm advection will result in highs on Sunday approximately 10 degrees warmer than Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the trough developing over the Plains will also result in good moisture advection, especially Sunday night into Monday. Showers will expand in coverage Sunday night with widespread rain expected on Monday as another wave of low pressure tracks northeast along the frontal boundary. Much of the area can expect to see rainfall amounts of around a half inch with above normal temperatures in the low 50s on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A deep upper level trough will develop over the Plains on Monday night, swinging eastward across the Great Lakes Region through Tuesday night. A strong cold front will move east across the area on Tuesday with temperatures falling through the daytime hours as an arctic airmass arrives. 850mb temperatures are expected to reach between -17 to -20C by Wednesday morning. At this time long range models continue to show a favorable set-up for westerly flow across Lake Erie from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. As previously noted, moisture depth is limited but good convergence down the long fetch of the lake coupled with extreme instability over the relatively warm lake waters presents the potential for heavy lake effect snows to develop, especially closer to the lakeshore. We will need to monitor model trends into next week as some slowing of the system is likely and slight adjustments in wind direction will alter the favored areas for snowfall. Highs on Wednesday could be 20 or more degrees below normal in the 20s trended the forecast temperatures towards the cooler ECMWF MOS guidance.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/. A cold front is moving southeast of the area at this time. Clouds will remain MVFR at times just behind the front. Further north, some clearing is beginning to push into the region out of Michigan and off Lake Erie. Clouds will persist at the Cleveland and Erie terminals for a while due to the lake effect. Otherwise, gradual improvement through the night to all areas seeing VFR. Winds will be from the northwest at 10 to 20 knots and will diminish later tonight to light by morning.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR likely late Sunday through Monday night with rain. Non-VFR across the snowbelt into Tuesday into Wednesday.

MARINE. Low pressure will pass north of Lake Erie this morning pulling a cold front south across the lake behind it. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued from Cleveland eastward as the flow shifts to the northwest at 15 to 25 knots behind the front. Waves of 4 to 6 feet can be expected this afternoon into tonight.

Strong high pressure will build east across the region on Saturday, reaching the East Coast on Sunday. Southerly winds will increase into the 15 to 25 knot range on Sunday and remain breezy into Monday. A strong cold front will move west to east across Lake Erie on Tuesday ushering in an arctic airmass. Westerly winds of at least 20-25 knots can be expected behind the front with Small Craft Advisories likely during the mid-week period.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ146>149.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Lombardy/Sefcovic SHORT TERM . KEC LONG TERM . KEC AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . KEC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 8 mi109 min WNW 5.1 42°F 1018 hPa35°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 10 mi34 min NNW 15 G 19 39°F 1017.9 hPa (+3.0)
LORO1 10 mi64 min NNW 26 G 28 40°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 22 mi52 min NW 18 G 22 38°F 38°F1019.3 hPa30°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 30 mi34 min NNW 19 G 20 38°F 1020.3 hPa (+3.6)
CMPO1 36 mi124 min NNW 15 G 19 40°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 39 mi52 min NW 22 G 25 39°F 42°F1018.1 hPa31°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH11 mi41 minN 19 G 2410.00 miOvercast and Breezy40°F28°F65%1019.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLPR

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW8NW5CalmCalmCalmS3S5S5S5S6S6SW7SW9SW6SW9SW7SW14W9W8NW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.