Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 12:42 AM   Moonset 9:18 AM

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LEZ145 Vermilion To Avon Point Oh-avon Point To Willowick Oh- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 920 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Overnight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 55 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 50 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 290808 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 408 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A surface ridge extends into the region today, stretching northwest from the Carolina coast. A cold front will move across the area tonight into Tuesday. High pressure will return to the area on Wednesday. A low pressure system will move through the Midwest on Thursday and extend a warm front into the region with a cold front moving through on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure extending northwest from the Carolinas and a supporting upper ridge has allowed for a bubble of dry, warm air across the region. These features will allow for dry conditions for the first part of the day, along with another well above normal day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
High temperature records across the region are a bit lower and some record highs may be possible this afternoon.

A negatively tilted upper trough over the Upper Midwest will move east and begin pushing this ridge away from the region today. A vorticity maximum within the flow will be coincident with a surface cold front that will move through the Great Lakes region. Convection should develop ahead of these features with initial rain and possible storms reaching Northwest Ohio later this afternoon into the evening. Overall coverage of showers and storms will be scattered as the main forcing will be fighting against the upper ridge that has sustained drier weather over the last 24 hours. However, another push of energy into the region from the southwest tonight should allow for coverage to increase and have categorical PoPs traversing across the forecast area. There is enough instability for thunderstorms; however, the better jet energy is well north or south of the local forecast area and do not expect organization of storms into a strong or severe threat. The surface front will move across the forecast area on Tuesday morning and rain chances will diminish with this feature. Temperatures on Tuesday will be tapered with the front with 70s for highs.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A weak cold front will have pushed through the area with some lingering rain showers remaining over far northeastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania early Tuesday evening. An area of high pressure at the surface will build over the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Height levels will rise as an upper level ridge moves over the region Wednesday into Thursday. We will see a very nice first couple of days of May on Wednesday and Thursday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light winds from south or southwest, and high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s areawide. With light low level flow by Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, there may be a weak lake breeze that comes inland off the lakeshore later in the day to cool temperatures a bit. The overall weather message for the middle of the week is above average temperatures and very nice weather.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The weather will turn a little more unsettled by the end of the week. An upper level trough will swing through the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday. A cold front will push through the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region Friday.
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms likely become likely Friday afternoon into the late evening. We will see one more very warm day ahead of the cold front Friday afternoon with temperatures back in the upper 70s to low 80s. Another area of high pressure will build back into the region Saturday through the first part of Sunday with fair weather conditions. High temperatures this weekend will be slightly cooler but still above average in the lower to middle 70s. A larger upper level trough will develop and dig across the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley late Sunday into Monday to bring another round of unsettled weather with scattered rain chances.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
Conditions across the area will start VFR and likely remain VFR for much of the TAF period. High pressure building in from the southeast will allow for the airspace to be dry today with some mid-level clouds moving into the region. The pressure gradient across the region will be light enough to allow for some form a of a lake breeze to form. This will get through KERI and it will be close for KCLE. The gradient could be just strong enough to keep it north of KCLE. A cold front will enter tonight and allow for showers and some thunderstorms to enter the region.
Coverage of convection will be generally scattered but high enough to merit a prevailing group in the forecast.
Precipitation will be light to moderate and likely not result in a fall below VFR levels. Showers and storms will be present in the airspace through the end of the period. South winds will shift slightly to the southwest and gusts to 25 kt are possible this afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms early Tuesday.
Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

MARINE
Southwest winds will again increase once again today 10-15 knots ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will track across Lake Erie late tonight into Tuesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Before the front arrive, there could be a chance for a weak lake breeze to develop along the central and eastern lakeshore this afternoon. After the frontal passage, westerly winds at 5-10 knots will follow through Tuesday night. High pressure builds back over the lake on Wednesday. A warm front will lift north across the lake on Thursday. Southwesterly flow of 5-10 knots is expected Wednesday through Thursday. Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase on Friday to 10-15 knots. Another cold front will move eastward across the lake late Friday night. High pressure will build back over Lake Erie on Saturday with light westerly winds. No marine headlines are anticipated at this time.

CLIMATE
Forecast high temperatures on Monday may be within a few degrees of the daily record maximums for some climate locations. Here are the historical record high temperatures for Monday, April 29th.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 04-29 87(1899) 81(1942) 84(1899) 84(1888) 85(1942) 82(1899)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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