Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Amherst, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:21PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 4:26 PM EDT (20:26 UTC) Moonrise 10:33PMMoonset 11:23AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ145 Expires:201908212015;;983430 Fzus51 Kcle 211315 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 915 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez143>146-212015- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 915 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees, off cleveland 76 degrees, and off erie 77 degrees.
LEZ145


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Amherst, OH
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location: 41.44, -82.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 211918
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
318 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move across the forecast
area overnight. High pressure will build over the
region on Thursday and remain through the weekend.

Near term through Thursday night
A cold front will move across the area overnight
through Thursday morning. This is a fairly significant front and
will bring much cooler air to the region over the next several days.

The 12z run of the models show scattered showers and thunderstorms
overnight. Both GFS and NAM show the development of a surface wave
on the front overnight. The GFS is more aggressive with the surface
low and the pcpn with the model is likely high. I will trend toward
the nam. The surface low will likely slow the movement of the front
between 06z-12z. The front will then push south of the forecast area
Thursday afternoon. The surface wave will keep scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast area overnight through Thursday
afternoon particularly over the southern areas. Dry and fair
conditions with cooler air will filter over the region Thursday
evening into Friday.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
The short term begins Friday with models are showing building high
pressure across the great lakes. A frontal boundary will be stalled
across the tennessee valley with moisture lingering into the lower
ohio valley. Aloft, an upper low will be over quebec with a trough
extending southwest across the eastern and central lakes. While the
airmass will be generally dry, the main concern will be how much
instability with be created by the cool air aloft and leftover low
level moisture. For now, will keep Friday dry albeit with a healthy
crop of afternoon cu. Friday night through Sunday, the high will
dominate the region as it passes across ontario into quebec. With
the high to our north however, winds will be from the northeast and
east on lake erie creating a favorable setup for marginally high
water on the west end. The most likely timing with be Saturday into
Saturday night with winds from the east at 15 to 20 knots. Will need
to monitor this situation in future model runs. Friday and Saturday
look for highs in the low to mid 70s. Sunday highs will reach the
upper 70s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday night and Monday, models take the high east across quebec
with southerly return flow setting up across the ohio valley. Models
show moisture returning but differ on timing. Will lean closer to
the slower ECMWF and bring chance pops back to the southwestern
counties Monday morning and then everywhere across northern ohio in
the afternoon. Moisture will continue to pool into the region Monday
night in advance of an approaching cold front. Models differ on
frontal timing with the GFS showing to just to our west Tuesday
afternoon while the ECMWF hold it off for Wednesday. At this point
will not get too fancy and just have a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday and await better model
resolution. Highs around 80 Monday and in the lower 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Still hanging on to some low clouds early this afternoon, but a
decrease in cloud coverage and higher ceilings are the trend
for cle, fdy, tol, and eri. Cloud coverage becomes more
widespread to the southeast at mfd, cak, and yng, as well as
the chance for vicinity showers that have begun to pop up across
the area. Thinking most of this activity will be low-topped and
have a difficult chance at creating thunder. Some areas of
patchy fog may be possible tonight across the southern tier
(yng, cak) which could lead to some MVFR or even ifr conditions,
but have not included due to low confidence. Attention then
turns to tomorrow morning where a complex of showers will make
their way east across northern oh, leading to lowered ceilings
and MVFR conditions at all TAF sites. Westerly winds under 10kts
will turn northwesterly northerly by tomorrow morning across
the area.

Outlook... Intervals of non-vfr possible primarily with
scattered showers on Thursday.

Marine
Winds on lake erie were from the southwest this afternoon from 10 to
15 knots ahead of a approaching cold front in the central lakes.

This cold front will drop across the lake this evening and early
tonight turning winds out of the northwest. While current
expectations are that on balance, waves will remain below 4 feet,
there could be a window where they will be close central and east
thirds this evening and early tonight. Will need to monitor for
possible small craft advisory if conditions look to be sustained.

The front will remain to our south into the weekend as high pressure
moves across across ontario and quebec. Winds at first, Thursday,
will be light from the northeast. The northeast flow will remain
generally 10 knots or less Thursday night through early Friday night.

After midnight however northeast flow will increase to 10 to 15
knots, increasing to 15 knots Saturday afternoon. Again, waves are
not expected to get to 4 feet but it could be close, especially from
the islands to the central basin. Sunday night into Monday expect 15
to 20 knots from the east to southeast Sunday night, turning out of
the south to southeast on Monday as the high reaches eastern
quebec and the maritimes.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Garnet
near term... Garnet
short term... Garnet
long term... Tk
aviation... Kahn
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LORO1 4 mi57 min WNW 9.9 G 12 78°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 14 mi102 min WSW 1 84°F 1013 hPa69°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 15 mi27 min WSW 9.9 G 15 83°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.7)
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 18 mi37 min SW 7.8 G 12 79°F 1 ft1013.1 hPa72°F
45169 26 mi27 min WNW 9.7 G 14 78°F 78°F2 ft
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 26 mi63 min WSW 4.1 G 8.9 82°F 77°F1013.1 hPa69°F
45176 27 mi27 min N 12 G 16 78°F 78°F2 ft
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 33 mi27 min SW 12 G 14 80°F 1012.6 hPa (-0.9)
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 34 mi57 min WNW 11 G 13 78°F 78°F1013.1 hPa69°F
45164 36 mi87 min 77°F2 ft

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH8 mi34 minW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F66°F57%1013.3 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH21 mi36 minWSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F66°F59%1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLPR

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7----S19
G27
W5S3E4----------SW5--NW3W5SW3----W8SW66SW6W7
1 day ago--N3N8N5CalmCalmCalmCalm--------S3CalmCalmCalmS5S7S7S8S11S8SW7S8
2 days agoW11NE7CalmS14S10S10S9S7NW15
G27
SW5--N4----SW4S4SW3Calm4--NW3Calm--N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.