Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 3:32 AM   Moonset 3:33 PM

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LEZ145 Vermilion To Avon Point Oh-avon Point To Willowick Oh- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 357 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms early, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms from late evening on. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 59 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 040821 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 421 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
An active pattern continues as a warm front lifts back north into the area today. Low pressure will move west to east through the Central Great Lakes late tonight into Sunday pulling a weak cold front east across the area. This frontal boundary will stall across southern Ohio on Monday as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes Region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A moist airmass remains in place across the region with PW values of around 1.30 inches. The local area resides between an upper level trough approaching the Midwest and a ridge anchored along the East Coast. At the surface, winds veer around to the southeast lifting a warm front back north into the area. This will be the driving feature for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop and move north through the afternoon. Instability will be a little higher towards the I-75 corridor with 500-1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Shortwave energy will move out of the Tennessee Valley today across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. This will help focus showers by this evening across eastern portions of the forecast areas. The flow through the column remains weak so any thunderstorms that develop will be slow moving. Despite cloud cover and expanding showers, temperatures are forecast to reach the 70s. Raised highs at Erie Pennsylvania a few degrees as southeasterly downsloping winds become breezy this afternoon and evening.

The more convectively driven showers in the west should wane this evening while rain continues across the east fueled by the shortwave energy. Mild and humid conditions will continue tonight.

Upper level trough over the Midwest lifts northeast towards James Bay through Sunday morning. The trailing cold front moves west to east across the forecast area on Sunday. Modest instability of 500-1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE is forecast to develop in the warm sector ahead of the front. In addition we will have a little better forcing provided by the front and shortwave energy passing north of Lake Erie. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop along a line from near Geauga County west to the Central Highlands. Temperatures will be in the 70s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. It looks like a few thunderstorms may develop west of I-71 but coverage should increase as storms reach Northeast Ohio. Bulk shear values are on the order of 25-30 knots. The should provide a little better organization so the Storm Predication Center has placed eastern portions of the forecast area into a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Sunday afternoon and evening which seems reasonable.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Sunday night into Monday should be the best chance of the short term period to have no shower/storm chances for the CWA and primarily go with a dry forecast prior to 18Z Monday. This begins in a post frontal environment with high pressure building over the Great Lakes and pushing the cold front further to south away from the southern zones. Upper level trough will track into the region from the southwest, bringing the POPs northward then back into the southern zones later Monday into Monday evening before exiting, and the surface high pressure regaining control of the area. Frontal boundary that stalled south of the CWA will push back northeastward Tuesday in response to an intermountain west upper low driving a mid latitude system eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Higher POPs return late Tuesday as a result. Not much instability to work with until Tuesday when SBCAPE returns in the warm sector and low/mid levels flows increase. Monday will be one of the cooler days in the forecast, but rebounding, again, in the warm sector Tuesday back into the 70s to near 80F for the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Cold front Tuesday night followed by weak surface high pressure into Wednesday, but operational models then develop another surface low moving in from the southwest as the progressive nature of this Spring pattern continues. As this surface low passes through the CWA Thursday, another cold front pushes through in its wake Thursday night. Along with POPs making yet another comeback in this time frame, a cooler airmass will follow for the end of the long term behind the cold front. 70s give way to 60s for Friday and Saturday in this cooler regime.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
A few pockets of light showers are ongoing at the start of the period. Nearly anywhere could get a light shower overnight but coverage will be limited and most won't. Only included a tempo for a light shower at MFD which seemed most likely over the next couple hours. Otherwise ceilings are VFR but expect to see some MVFR cloud fill in through the overnight period. On Saturday there is a little better forcing to see scattered showers with a few thunderstorms develop across Central Ohio and spread north through the afternoon. Coverage will be focused more towards Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through the evening.
Tried to time some tempos in for showers where appropriate. Did not include thunderstorms at this time but a few thunderstorms will be possible and may need to add as confidence increases.
Otherwise ceilings will tend to be MVFR for much of the day with reduced visibilities in showers and IFR possible in thunderstorms. Ceilings are expected to lower on Saturday night as a slow moving trough approaches from the west.

Winds will tend to be 10 knots or less through the period. Light and variable winds through 14Z will become south to southeasterly for most inland terminals. Lakeshore areas will hold onto an east or northeast wind for longer, but also eventually expected to shift around to the south/southeast. Erie is the one site that may see gusts to around 20-25 knots tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.

MARINE
Easterly winds today become offshore tonight, but the quick changing surface weather systems moving through the region will be characteristic of varying wind directions through the forecast period. Winds largely less than 15kts as well during this time, and expect wave heights in the nearshore and open waters to remain below 2ft except for Monday. Waves could briefly be over 2ft in northerly winds behind a cold front at that time in the central and western basin, and again towards the end of next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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