Monday, April19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Amherst, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:14PM Monday April 19, 2021 6:07 PM EDT (22:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:40AMMoonset 1:35AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ145 Expires:202104191415;;782366 Fzus51 Kcle 190817 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 417 Am Edt Mon Apr 19 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez144>147-191415- The Islands To Vermilion Oh-vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Avon Point To Willowick Oh-willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 417 Am Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
Today..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. Rain in the evening, then snow and rain overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 50 degrees, off cleveland 47 degrees, and off erie 45 degrees.
LEZ145


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Amherst, OH
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location: 41.44, -82.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 192025 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 425 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front stretching across Lower Michigan to northern Illinois will continue east tonight and slowly cross the area on Tuesday. Low pressure will move northeast along this slowing front on Tuesday night and quickly exit the region on Wednesday. A residual trough will remain across the region into Thursday morning. High pressure will build from the southwest later on Thursday into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A cold front stretching from the thumb region of Michigan to northern Indiana will continue east towards the forecast area this evening. Rain continues ahead of this front but is battling a very dry low level air mass across the region and many of the returns on radar this afternoon are not reaching the ground. The rain that is actually measuring is immediately with the front, where temperatures are dropping 20 degrees and rain isn't able to evaporate as quickly. Timing this feature east across the area, while accounting for low level drying, have low PoPs for tonight with the highest over NE OH/NW PA where some added moisture off Lake Erie gives the highest confidence in rain chances with the front. The front will slowly move through the area on Tuesday, but after being removed from the better upper level forcing, any rain showers should fizzle out by late morning. Temperatures tonight will be falling into the upper 30s to lower 40s and then any recovery on Tuesday will be highly dependent upon the frontal location, but a good gradient from north to south will be present across the forecast area with 40s to the north and 50s to the south ahead of the front.

The biggest story for the near term period will be the second half of Tuesday, as snow makes a triumphant return to the region. (Sorry, folks!) Low pressure will develop over the south central United States and follow the front northeast into the forecast area. With the low, a potent shortwave trough will enter the Great Lakes region giving good support for precipitation across the region. Strong low-level frontogenetic forcing will also be on the northwest side of this system allowing for additional lift for precipitation. Air should be sufficiently cold enough for rain to changeover to snow on Tuesday evening. A TROWAL pivoting through the region late Tuesday night could briefly enhance snowfall rates across the region and allow for accumulations, especially in NW OH. However, surface temperatures remain warm and a significant difference in accumulations on grassy surfaces vs. roadways will be noted. With all that said, will maintain a broad area of 1 to 3 inches of snow on Tuesday night, although where heavier snowfall rates, and perhaps banding, exists in NW OH, 4 inches could be possible. Outside of that, cold temperatures are expected on Tuesday night and have issued a Freeze Watch for counties where the growing season has started and temperatures 32 or lower are expected.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. The upper-level trough and associated low pressure system system will be moving off to the east during the daytime hours on Wednesday. It seems likely that there will still be ongoing snow with small areas of heavy snow early Wednesday morning. Precipitation rates will be diminishing through the late morning and early afternoon hours as the best synoptic-scale lift moves off to the east, which combined with the April sun angle, and slightly increasing daytime temperatures should limit any additional snow accumulation through the daytime hours. Additional snow accumulations of less than an inch are expected across northern and northeast Ohio, while up to one to two inches is possible in northwest Pennsylvania (especially inland). Accumulations should mainly be reserved for grassy and elevated surfaces. High snow rates could result in snow accumulating on roadways, especially before sunrise, but will likely be shortlived as increasing temperatures and high April sun angle should melt this very quickly during the daytime hours.

Northwest flow will ensue with cold temperatures aloft immediately upstream the departing low. This will result in significant lake- induced cloud cover and a transition from system-precipitation to lake effect precipitation by Wednesday afternoon/evening. Advection of cold air aloft over warm Lake Erie water temperatures of mid to upper 40s will result in deepening equilibrium levels and peak lake- induced SBCAPE of up to 500 J/kg by Wednesday night. Additional snow accumulations are likely Wednesday night, though there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the moisture profile (models are projecting low moisture content), along with evolution of lake effect bands/cells. Additionally, surface temperatures are expected to drop significantly Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with lows in the mid to upper 20s away from the lake and low 30s near the lakeshore. Record lows at area climate sites are in the low 20s for April 21, so current forecast is only a few degrees away from record lows at many spots. Lake effect precipitation and cloud cover will slowly diminish from west to east Thursday. High pressure building into the region will be centered over the Tennessee valley Thursday with another round of cold temperatures with minimum temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. There will be a slow trend back to near normal temperatures through the weekend, though there is still a fair amount of spread in model guidance. Best precipitation chances are expected Saturday and Saturday night and an upper-level trough moves across the region. Most model guidance has a precipitation-free Monday with near-normal temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/. Conditions across the region will start as VFR this afternoon with diurnal cumulus across the region ahead of a cold front. This cu field will remain in the 5 to 7 kft range and allow for sct to bkn conditions. Good mixing remains across the region and wind gusts to 25 knots will remain possible through early this evening. A cold front stretching across Lower Michigan to the lower Lake Michigan region will move east tonight, slowly crossing the airspace. Dry conditions ahead of the front will support low ceilings and virga before the low levels become resaturated to allow for rain across portions of the area later tonight. For now, have some vicinity shower mentions at some TAF sites with a more certain rain mention at KERI. The southern TAF sites of KMFD to KYNG and south may remain dry. In NE OH and NW PA, conditions may become favorable enough for non-VFR ceilings to develop and have introduced some MVFR mentions. Rain will clear early Tuesday morning and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook . Non-VFR likely in snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Lingering non- VFR possible in scattered lake effect rain and/or snow showers Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE. Westerly winds near 15 knots will continue through tonight across Lake Erie. Low pressure develops over the Ohio Valley tomorrow, moving towards the New England coast by Wednesday night. This result in the development of northeast to north winds of around 15 to 20 knots Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before weakening and shifting to out of the northwest Wednesday through Thursday morning. On Thursday winds become more westerly as high pressure builds eastward across the Tennessee Valley, with westerly winds of 15 to 20 knots expected Thursday through at least Friday morning.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for OHZ003-006-017-027-036. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Sefcovic SHORT TERM . Saunders LONG TERM . Saunders AVIATION . Sefcovic MARINE . Saunders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LORO1 4 mi37 min W 21 G 27 60°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 15 mi67 min WSW 20 G 27 63°F 1006.4 hPa (-0.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 26 mi49 min W 12 G 18 63°F 53°F1006.8 hPa24°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 34 mi49 min WSW 13 G 16 62°F 51°F1007.6 hPa34°F
CMPO1 41 mi97 min WSW 16 G 25

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH8 mi74 minWSW 16 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F32°F30%1008.2 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH21 mi76 minSW 18 G 2810.00 miOvercast and Breezy64°F32°F30%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLPR

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS5S5S4SW4S3SW3S3S3S3SW3SW5SW4SW8SW9W12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW4S3CalmS4S4S4SW5SW7SW9W6NW13
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CalmNW7S8S7
2 days agoNW6N3CalmCalmCalmNE5E7NE3N3CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmNE4CalmN3CalmN4--NE8N8CalmNE4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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