Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chester Center, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) Rain through early Friday morning could lead to localized nuisance flooding, especially in areas of poor drainage. Low probability of freezing rain across interior locations tonight.

2) Showers possible Saturday night with above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
An unsettled and wet period of weather is expected today into early Friday.

A series of weak shortwaves will interact with a nearly stalled frontal boundary draped over the Mid Atlantic through this afternoon. A more potent shortwave will then move across the area tonight.

The initial shortwave will bring the development of rain early this morning, mainly after sunrise. Temperatures initially across the interior and the Pine Barrens of Long Island are below freezing, but once clouds lower and thicken temperatures should rise above freezing. A few sheltered areas may take longer to warm, but think any measurable precip will hold off until temperatures are above freezing.

Widespread rain expected this morning and afternoon may briefly become somewhat more scattered late afternoon and early evening, especially closer to the coast. This will be short-lived as the more potent shortwave approaches this evening. Thermal forcing will increase this evening as high pressure over Maine and SE Canada tries to nose SW into New England and low pressure develops along the front south of Long Island. The rain may become moderate at times before tapering off from west to east late tonight into early Friday morning. Much of Friday should be dry, but clouds will remain in place due to the low level wedge of cold air locked in beneath warmer air aloft.

There has been a trend for colder surface air draining southward into portions of the interior this evening and tonight.
Probabilities for some freezing rain have ticked up just a bit for some elevated areas in Orange County and interior S CT. However, probabilities are overall still below 30 percent and mainly plain rain is still forecast. There is a chance some locations drop to 32 degrees as the rain slowly tapers off tonight, but currently not anticipating any impacts. This is due to the rain process limiting any impacts with marginal temperatures. Would like see temperatures drop below freezing to allow for any impacts to roads. There is also a chance precip will be coming to an end before temperatures fall to 32 degrees. Will highlight the low potential for a freezing rain tonight in the HWO across interior zones and continue monitor guidance trends today. A short-fused winter weather advisory may be needed for some these interior locations if temperatures show a more significant trend towards falling below freezing tonight.

Rainfall amounts continue to range between 1 and 1.5 inches across the area. Meanwhile, NOHRSC analysis continues to indicate a general 1 to 2 inches of SWE across the local region, in line with a snow core here at the office Wednesday afternoon yielding 1.2 inches.
Coupled with the resultant snowmelt, the rainfall may lead ponding and pockets of poor drainage/nuisance flooding. No flash flooding expected since hourly rainfall rates will not be high and should largely remain below 0.25"/hr.


KEY MESSAGE 2
A warming trend will begin this weekend, especially Sunday, and continue through the middle of next week. The frontal system draped to our south will gradually lift to our north Saturday into Saturday night. The low level colder air will remain in place to start Saturday. Guidance may be warming temperatures a bit too quickly given there is not a strong push of SW flow until late in the day and evening. Highs for Saturday may not occur until along and just ahead of the cold front passage.
Temperatures should start rising into the 40s and then gradually push into the 50s from the NYC metro north and west in the evening at night. Temperatures may stay in the 40s due to the onshore flow influence.

Showers may accompany the cold front passage Saturday night.
The NBM continues to indicate likely PoPs for this time frame, but this may be overdone given the most organized lift is progged to pass to well to our NW. Showers may end up scattered overall with generally light rainfall amounts.

The cold front then pushes south on Sunday and washes out as the Western Atlantic high pressure remains in place through early next week. A more persistent SW flow regime sets up early next week with a high pressure ridge intensifying to the southeast. This SW flow will allow for warmer air to move into the area resulting in a warming trend through at least the middle of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will largely be the 50s with potential of lower 60s from NYC on north and west. If the current forecast high of 61 at Central Park on Sunday verifies, it would be the first temperature 60 degrees or higher since November 9, 2025. By Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures west of the NYC metro may climb into the upper 60s and low 70s. Coastal areas and Long Island likely remain in the 50s with the cold water moderating the airmass. If there is more of a westerly component to the wind direction, warmer air could push further east until the occurrence of afternoon sea breezes.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure gives way to an approaching wave of low pressure along a front which will become nearly stalled within the area Thursday into Thursday night.

Lower clouds and fog expected to develop overnight into early Thursday. For 6Z TAFs, many NYC terminals are at MVFR or will be dropping there by 7-8Z. Terminals north and east of NYC will follow.
KGON already with IFR visibility in patchy fog. Conditions transition from VFR to IFR overnight and then LIFR for Thursday. IFR to LIFR expected Thursday as periods of rain occur.

Winds initially light, 5 kts or less, with variable direction tonight into early Thursday morning. Then winds become more ENE near 5-7 kts Thursday before increasing to near 10 kts Thursday night.
Gusts begin to develop Thursday evening near 15-20 kts.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

IFR and LIFR arrival time could be 2-4 hours off from TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday Night: LIFR to IFR. Rain continues. ENE wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Friday: Mainly MVFR to IFR. Rain tapers off early in the day but there is another chance of rain at night. NE wind gusts early 15-20 kt.

Saturday: MVFR possible at times, especially at night with rain showers. Isolated thunderstorm possible at night. Potential for southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of showers. VFR eventually returns by late morning into the afternoon.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions will remain below SCA levels into this afternoon.
Increasing E flow tonight will lead to winds reaching near 25 kt on the ocean, LI Bays, and LI Sound E of the CT River. These winds should subside Friday morning, but ocean seas will remain elevated into Friday afternoon. An SCA has been issued on the ocean tonight into Friday and on the LI Bays/E LI Sound, tonight through 10am Friday. Seas may remain elevated Friday night east of Moriches Inlet and the SCA may need to be extended in subsequent updates.

SCA conditions will become likely on the ocean Saturday afternoon and night ahead of a cold frontal passage with wind gusts near 25kt and seas 5-7 feet. Seas may be slow to subside on Sunday, but sub- SCA conditions on all waters are expected by Sunday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.