Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Middle, NY

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Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:29PM Friday July 19, 2019 12:16 AM EDT (04:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:22PMMoonset 8:05AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1035 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 2 ft late this evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers late this evening, then slight chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1035 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front, south of the waters overnight, will wash out. High pressure builds back into the area and will remain centered over the southeastern states into the weekend. A cold front passes through the area Sunday night into Monday, followed by high pressure on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middletown city, NY
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location: 41.45, -74.44     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190322
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1122 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front south of the area will dissipate overnight.

The area will then come under the influence of the western
extent of the bermuda high through the weekend. A cold front
approaches and moves through Sunday night into Monday. High
pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term through Friday
A few showers lingering showers across eastern long island and
se ct will push offshore overnight as a weak mid level
shortwave and weak surface wave offshore moves east.

There is some cooler and drier air working in on a light N ne
flow overnight behind the weak front, which should allow ne
sections of the tri-state to fall well down into the 60s.

Towards the nyc nj metro, it will be a warm, humid night, with
readings ranging in the lower and mid 70s.

Stratus is likely to remain stubborn overnight, with patchy fog
in the moist low-levels with strengthening low-level inversion.

Short term Friday night through 6 pm Friday
Forecast area will reside at the southern edge of the
westerlies with the potential for record warmth as we head into
the weekend. This will be the start of a heat wave for the
region following the cloud cover and showers that tempered the
temperatures on Thursday.

Deep-layered W flow and the westward expansion of the subtropical
high along the east coast will combine to keep the airmass very
humid with dew points into the lower and middle 70s on Friday.

This combined with highs in the lower and middle 90s from nyc
and points north and west will produce heat index values around
105 on Friday for the nyc metro, NE nj, and the lower hudson
valley. An excessive heat warning has been issued for these
areas. To the east, a developing onshore flow will keep
temperatures cooler, mainly in the upper 80s to near 90. Still
though, heat index values will range from mid 90s to around 100.

These locations are under a heat advisory. This will begin a
prolonged period of heat hazards for the region.

Some concern for strong to severe convection to work into
western portions of the tri-state region late Friday into Friday
evening. Will have to watch convective development across
eastern great lakes Friday morning in response to shortwave
energy working east from southern minnesota. Deep layer flow and
shear profiles are more favorable for organized convection
maintenance well to the north and west of the tri- state area
Friday afternoon, but if a strong enough cold pool can develop
with any organized convective activity, the low-level shear,
high instability and high moisture profile in the area look
favorable for maintenance for convective activity into western
portions of the tri- state. Main threat would be strong to
damaging winds. Some of the 12z cams are hinting at convection
dropping in from the NW during the late afternoon early evening
hours. Confidence is still low, but convective chances have been
increased to low chance for Friday evening based on the above
reasoning.

Otherwise... For Friday night, not much relief with temperatures
struggling to get into the 70s. Heat index values overnight may
get no lower than the mid to upper 80s for the nyc metro area.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Friday.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
The main concern for this period continues to be the high heat and
humidity that is expected to continue Saturday and Sunday thanks to
a bermuda high over the northern atlantic. 850 hpa temperature
anomalies of +2-+3c over the great lakes region will move over the
area through Sunday. 500 hpa heights over 5900 m also noted in
guidance for Saturday, with slightly less values for Sunday. This is
in line with climatology for a widespread heat wave to impact the
forecast area from Friday through Sunday. Much of the guidance
suggests highs well into the the 90s during this time frame, with
dew points well into the 70s.

Highs on Saturday will range form 95 to 100 degrees, with perhaps
isolated areas in northeast new jersey reaching a degree or two
above the century mark. Sunday will be slightly cooler, as heights
lower somewhat, but it will continue to be very hot and humid. There
is also a great deal of uncertainty with the temperatures for Sunday
due to uncertainty in cloud coverage from an approaching cold front
to the west. The ECMWF ensemble has a range of high temperatures
from 89 to 101 for central park.

Regardless, with anomalously high dew points in the middle to upper
70s in some cases, this translates to heat index values of 105 to
just over 110 for much of the forecast area (isolated portions of
northeast new jersey may see heat index values of 115) for Saturday.

Excessive heat watches have been converted to excessive heat
warnings for Saturday. With the potential for widespread heat index
values of 105-110 on Sunday, excessive heat warnings have been
issued for then as well. These temperatures and heat index values
are life threatening, please follow the preparedness precautionary
actions within our excessive heat warning products to prepare for
the upcoming heat.

Of additional concern are nighttime lows Saturday night into Sunday,
as lows are not forecast to dip below 80 in the new york city metro
area, with the lowest forecast heat index values during that time
frame in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

As for precipitation, thermal troughs developing will allow for just
a passing shower or thunderstorm for late Saturday into Saturday
night. An approaching cold front will bring a low end chance for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, mainly for new york city
and points north and west. As for now, nothing indicating a
widespread severe event in the long term. Chances increase Sunday
night into Monday, with best chances for rain Monday afternoon as
the cold front remains just off shore. There may be lingering
showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday, mainly for southern portions
of the area. Temperatures will be cooler for Monday thanks to
increase cloudiness and rain, with lower humidity levels. More
seasonable conditions are expected for Tuesday through Thursday with
high pressure in control for the middle of the week.

Aviation 03z Friday through Tuesday
Prevailing NE flow expected most of tonight as low pressure
passes to the south, with MVFR ifr CIGS remaining steady then
gradually scattering out toward daybreak or shortly after as
drier air filters down from new england.

Winds as the low passes farther east should become more
northerly after daybreak, then SW flow either side of 10 kt in
the afternoon. With some gusts 15-18 kt at kewr kteb, and
perhaps klga before the sea breeze arrives there late afternoon.

A late day TSTM is possible from nyc north west.

Outlook for 00z Saturday through Tuesday
Friday night through Saturday night Vfr.

Sunday Chance of late day tstms NW of nyc, otherwiseVFR.

Sunday night through Tuesday Chance of showers tstms with
MVFR or lower conds.

Marine
E NE wind gusts to 20 kt will dissipate overnight as cold front
to the south washes out. On Friday, s-sw winds on the ocean
waters in the afternoon will push 15 to 20 kt and then weaken
Friday night. A brief period of 5 ft seas late in the day is
possible. Confidence is low at this time.

Thereafter, a weak pressure gradient in the long term will mean
winds remain below SCA criteria. Southerly flow will allow
waves on the ocean to build to 5 ft Sunday night through
Tuesday, mainly for the central and eastern ocean zone.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected Friday into next
week.

Climate
The following are records for this weekend:
record highest minimum temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 82 in 2015
lga: 83 in 2015
jfk: 79 in 2015
ewr: 80 in 2015
isp: 78 in 2013
bdr: 79 in 2013
record high temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 101 in 1980
lga: 101 in 1991
jfk: 96 in 2013 (also occurred in previous years)
ewr: 101 in 1980
isp: 97 in 1991
bdr: 95 in 1001
record highest minimum temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 82 in 1980
lga: 83 in 1980
jfk: 79 in 2017
ewr: 81 in 1980
isp: 76 in 1980
bdr: 76 in 1994
record high temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 104 in 1977
lga: 100 in 1991
jfk: 99 in 1991
ewr: 103 in 2011
isp: 101 in 1991
bdr: 98 in 1991

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Excessive heat warning from 6 am Saturday to 8 pm edt Sunday
for ctz005>012.

Heat advisory from noon Friday to 6 am edt Saturday for
ctz005>012.

Ny... Excessive heat warning from 6 am Saturday to 8 pm edt Sunday
for nyz078>081-177-179.

Heat advisory from noon Friday to 6 am edt Saturday for
nyz078>081-177-179.

Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Sunday for
nyz067>075-176-178.

Nj... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Sunday for
njz002-004-006-103>108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jp dw
near term... Nv dw
short term... Nv dw
long term... Jp
aviation... Goodman
marine... Jp dw
hydrology... Jp dw
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 37 mi46 min SE 2.9 73°F 1013 hPa71°F
TKPN6 47 mi46 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 73°F 80°F1013.3 hPa71°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 54 mi31 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 72°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 56 mi46 min 72°F 73°F1013 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY10 mi22 minN 010.00 miOvercast71°F68°F90%1013.1 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY18 mi31 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist72°F71°F100%1013.5 hPa
Sussex, Sussex Airport, NJ19 mi23 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist72°F70°F94%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from MGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5NE7NE7NE6NE9N8N8NE10NE3NE5NE8E6E5E3NE3CalmCalm
1 day agoSW5SW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW3S7SW4W9W8NW5SW6SW20
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW9SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:09 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:56 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:47 PM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:00 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.13.33.22.721.30.70.200.41.11.92.42.72.72.521.410.60.40.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for West Point, Hudson River, New York
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West Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:43 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:33 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:21 PM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:37 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.62.62.421.40.90.40.10.10.51.21.722.22.21.91.510.70.50.40.81.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.