Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Middle, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:29PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 5:51 AM EST (10:51 UTC) Moonrise 5:18PMMoonset 7:26AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 409 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W early this afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less. Snow this morning, then slight chance of snow early this afternoon. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late this morning and early afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ300 409 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak wave of low pressure passes offshore this morning. Arctic high pressure then builds across the waters late today into Thursday. The high shifts offshore Thursday night with low pressure approaching from the south Friday. This low passes through on Saturday with high pressure returning on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middletown city, NY
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location: 41.45, -74.44     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 110906 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 406 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak wave of low pressure passes offshore this morning. Arctic high pressure then builds across the region late today into Thursday. The high shifts offshore Thursday night. A low pressure system approaches from the south Friday. Rainfall becomes likely late Friday and overnight with an all day rain event expected through Saturday. The low exits to the northeast late Saturday into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Precipitation shield continues to overspread the region early this morning. The rain/snow line appears to lie across north shore of Long Island to the NYC metro with mostly snow being observed to the north. However, the intensity of the snow so far has been light. In fact, some of the returns on radar across western Orange County are not reaching the ground.

500 mb shortwave energy continues to provide PVA aloft in combination with upper divergence from a 170-180 kt jet streak to our NW. The region will lie in the right entrance of the jet, which favors large scale lift and supports the precipitation we are currently observing. Have been monitoring the trends in the last several runs of the HRRR and the model seems to be handling the current situation fairly well. Thinking its projection of several bands of snow within the larger precip shield early this morning looks on target. The snow will be quickest to end across the lower Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ, but will linger through the morning commute across NYC, Long Island and southern Connecticut. HRRR soundings indicate significant lift in a saturated dendritic growth zone especially across Long Island and southeast Connecticut. This is the area where higher snow amounts look more likely.

One question continues to revolve around how far NW across the interior of the Lower Hudson Valley and Northeast New Jersey accumulating snow will reach. Low level dry air seems to be impacting snow reaching the ground. If this trend continues even as a surge of lift aloft moves north from the Middle Atlantic, then snow amounts may be too high across those locations. The snowfall forecast has not changed too much. Still anticipate bands of snow to impact the morning commute for much of the region, with the moderate to possibly locally heavy snow across portions of Long Island and southeast Connecticut. The city and urban NE NJ into the Hudson River Corridor and SW Connecticut should see accumulating snow during the morning commute as well, but the duration will likely not be as long as further east.

No changes were made to the Winter Weather Advisory. Despite amounts not reaching criteria for much of the advisory area, impacts to the morning commute are still expected. 1-2 inches still looks likely in the advisory area, but there could be higher amounts closer to 3 inches across Long Island and southeast Connecticut in the banding mentioned above. Accumulation on roads may be limited if the snow intensity does not increase during the morning commute. However, temperatures will be falling and some slick spots could still develop on the roads. An SPS has been issued to the NW of the advisory to account for the potential of slick roads even if there is limited snowfall that way. A wet snow is expected, but with temperatures dropping to the low 30s as the snow intensity increases, slick conditions should develop on roads as well. Most of the snow accumulation should be on grassy surfaces, but within moderate to heavy snow bands roads could become snow covered despite a warmer ground temperature.

The snow tapers off from west to east and should be over around midday across eastern portions of the area. Clouds will gradually clear into the afternoon, but some locations especially near the coast may remain mostly cloudy. Highs will generally be in the middle and upper 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. A strong arctic high pressure builds into the region tonight and will settle over the northeast on Thursday. Most models have the high around 1040 mb as it settles overhead on Thursday. Upper trough axis swings across New England tonight with heights gradually rising on Thursday. NW winds will increase and gust 20-25 mph Wednesday night with clearing skies. Dry and cold conditions Wednesday through Thursday. Lows will fall into the teens inland and lower and middle 20s near the coast tonight. Wind chills will be in the teens. For Thursday, highs will be in the lower and middle 30s. Winds will be light with the high pressure overhead.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Surface high continues to shift offshore Thursday night allowing for southerly winds to advect in moisture and comparatively warmer conditions headed into the latter part of the week. Overhead cloudiness returns to the Lower Hudson Valley and temperatures rise into the mid 40s for the day Friday.. There is a slight chance of warm frontal showers in the late morning with rain chances increasing into the late afternoon and overnight hours. These showers are associated with a deepening low pressure system off the Carolina coast. Southwest to northeast upper level flow over the eastern seaboard will spur this low north off the coast of Long Island through the overnight hours Friday into Saturday. Model soundings show the sub-tropical airmass has precipitable water values between 1.00-1.20 inches which will provide ample moisture for the expected rainfall. Timing has the majority of the rain falling for the NYC metro and surrounding areas in the overnight hours then lingering through the day Saturday. Rainfall totals around 1 to 2 could cause some instances of nuisance flooding in pour drainage areas.

Upper level trough axis pivots across New York state Sunday as a drier and more stable airmass moves into the region. Clouds clear out and temperatures are again the in mid 40s. Though overnight with the northwest winds, lows will fall near freezing around the city with areas north expected to be in the upper 20s prior to sunrise. High pressure builds Monday with more clear skies. This is short lived as an upper level jet stream of 150 kts over New England quickly transits the ridge axis eastward. The next low pressure system of note enters the Ohio River valley Tuesday morning. Global models show the possibility of mixed precip ahead of the system, but regardless could likely see another all day rain event for Tuesday.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A cold front has move southeast of the area with some left over precipitation expected this morning. High pressure builds into the region this afternoon.

The rain/snow line continues to move across portions of the area this morning. The only places still observing all rain are southern Long Island and KGON. As the precipitation changes from rain to snow (from NW to SE), conditions become MVFR and eventually IFR. The snow will end from NE to SE between 11-16Z. A brief period of moderate to locally heavy snowfall is possible in the morning if any banding sets up. Runway accumulations will generally range from 1-2 inches, with slightly higher accumulations possible for some Long Island and southeast Connecticut terminals.

Conditions improve to VFR Wednesday afternoon once the snow ends.

Winds will be from the NW around 5-10 kt to start. Winds then shifting back to the W and increasing in speed towards the end of the TAF period. A few gusts to 20-25 kt are possible late this afternoon afternoon, primarily at the city terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Wednesday night. VFR. Gusty WNW winds possible. Thursday. VFR Friday and Friday night. VFR on Friday, then MVFR possible in developing rain Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain. LLWS possible. Sunday. Becoming VFR.

MARINE. A weak wave of low pressure passes offshore this morning. Winds on the waters for much of today will be below SCA levels. NW winds start increasing late in the afternoon and will increase above SCA levels tonight as arctic high pressure builds to the west. Ocean seas will remain elevated through tonight as well. Wind gusts on the ocean could come close to gale force tonight, but should fall short. Have extended the SCA on the ocean through tonight and issued a new SCA for the non-ocean waters tonight. The waters east of Moriches Inlet could see seas remain elevated into the morning, so the SCA has been extended until 15z for now. Winds weaken considerably on Thursday as high pressure settles over the waters.

Low pressure approaches Friday and impacts the waters Friday night into Saturday. Marine zones could be nearing SCA conditions Saturday morning through the afternoon as south winds increase to 20-25 mph. A coastal low enters the ocean waters from the south and seas increase 9-11 feet by the afternoon. Elevated waves remain through Sunday then relax by early next week.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic issues are expected with mainly snow this Wednesday morning.

A long duration rainfall event is possible beginning Friday night through late Saturday night. Total rainfall amounts range between 1- 2 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a chance of coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning. This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south shore back bays of Long Island, where even moderate coastal flooding is a possibility at least along the Nassau County bays. Minor flooding will also be possible along NY Harbor and parts of Western Long Island Sound. Confidence is not high at this point as the event is still a few days away, and shifts in storm's track and/or timing would change the flooding potential.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for CTZ005>012. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ070>075-078>081-176>179. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NJZ006-104-106-108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/16/DS NEAR TERM . DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . DJ/16 AVIATION . BC MARINE . DJ/16/DS HYDROLOGY . DJ/16/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 37 mi81 min NNE 1.9 32°F 1023 hPa29°F
TKPN6 47 mi51 min N 5.1 G 6 1023.3 hPa (+2.5)
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 48 mi81 min Calm 30°F 1022 hPa28°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 54 mi51 min NNE 9.7 G 16 34°F 32°F34°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 56 mi51 min 34°F 46°F1022.3 hPa (+1.8)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY10 mi57 minNNW 39.00 miLight Snow30°F28°F92%1022.1 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY18 mi66 minN 101.50 miLight Snow30°F30°F100%1022.3 hPa
Sussex, Sussex Airport, NJ19 mi58 minNE 49.00 miUnknown Precip31°F28°F89%1021.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGJ

Wind History from MGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW4S4SW5SW6S7SW7SW7SW11SW8SW9NW12
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1 day agoCalmCalmNE3N4CalmCalmCalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW10SW9SW13SW7SW5SW7SW7
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW4SW8S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:14 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:24 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:58 AM EST     3.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:01 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:31 PM EST     2.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.91.20.60.2-0.10.10.81.82.63.13.23.12.61.81.10.50.1-0.10.20.91.72.32.6

Tide / Current Tables for West Point, Hudson River, New York
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West Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:51 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:23 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:32 AM EST     2.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:38 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:05 PM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.30.80.30-0.10.311.72.32.52.62.31.81.20.70.2-0.1-0.10.311.622.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.