Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middle, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
High pressure continues to move offshore tonight. Mostly clear skies remain with high pressure still in control. Light southerly flow turns more southwesterly in response to the exiting high pressure out to the east. With height rises and increasing 850 mb temps overnight, expecting overnight lows to stay mild. Lows drop into the mid-50s for most.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
Tomorrow, southerly flow continues. Temperatures will be warm yet again with highs in the 70s to near 80, particularly inland, with the cooler spots along the coasts.

A frontal system approaches on Friday, leading to increasing clouds through the day. Friday night a warm front passes, increasing showers across the CWA Some timing discrepancies still exist with the timing of the cold front, but expecting it to pass late in the day or early evening Saturday. With strong lift and some hints of instability in the available 12Z guidance, expecting a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms with showers located along or just ahead of the cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon and evening.
About 0.5-1.0" are expected Friday night through Saturday evening. No major hydrologic issues are expected.

Warm temps overnight Friday are expected due to the cloud cover and warm air advection from the passing warm front. Overnight lows will be in the mid-50s to low-60s. Saturday will be cooler thanks to rainfall and a nearing cold front. Highs then will be in the mid-60s to low-70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Strong upper level low approaches Saturday night and moves across early Sunday. This slowly moves towards Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Upper level ridge then builds in across the region for Sunday night through early next week. This will eventually give way to quasi-zonal flow for mid to late week.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to be exiting southeast of Long Island Saturday night. Increased POPs compared to previous forecast as another trough or secondary cold front moves across early Sunday. This will be accompanied by a steepening pressure gradient as parent low deepens as it moves through Maine. Rain showers linger Saturday night and then decrease late Saturday night into early Sunday. NW winds will increase and become gusty with cold air advection. Highest instability relatively speaking will be shifting southeast of the region so left out mention of thunder Saturday night after 8PM.

Steep pressure gradient remains through Sunday. With cold pool aloft with upper level low moving across, some more rain showers will be possible. Models indicate mainly dry conditions but manually increased POPs to slight chance. Also went higher than model forecasts with cloud coverage with cyclonic flow aloft. Used relatively cooler Superblend for the daytime high temperatures, which will be limited to upper 50s to lower 60s with the gusty winds and abundance of clouds the first half of the day.

For next week, warming trend is evident in the forecast models with the ridging developing across the area. Consistent model 850mb temperature warming by the end of each day Monday into Tuesday.
Expect a sharp rising trend to daytime high temperatures each day.
Much of the region is in upper 60s to mid 70s for highs Monday and well into the 70s to near 80 for Tuesday. Used specifically the NBM 50th percentile for high temperature forecast on Monday and Tuesday, which were relatively warmer compared to NBM alone.

Uncertainty grows for mid to late week depending on the evolution of an approaching frontal system. The ridging moves offshore and quasi- zonal flow will help steer this frontal system towards the region.
The system may linger nearby towards latter portion of week. Chances for showers and perhaps even an isolated thunderstorms are in the forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday. Chances for rain showers potentially continue into next Thursday.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR. High pressure remains just offshore through tonight.

SE-S winds 10-15 kt. Winds slowly weaken this evening as the direction becomes SW under 10 kt. Outlying terminals should see light and variable winds overnight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

SE flow may linger about an hour longer than currently forecast at KJFK before shifting South.

There is a low chance for HZ and a reduction in visibility due to smoke from the wildfire in eastern NJ.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday PM: VFR. S winds G15-20 kt.

Late Friday Night-Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. An isolated thunderstorm possible Saturday. S-SSW gusts 15-25 kt, becoming W-NW late day/evening.

Sunday: VFR. NNW gusts 25-30 kt possible.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub advisory conditions expected through Friday night. Marginal small craft advisory conditions are possible late Saturday with the frontal passage, mainly for 25 kt gusts on ocean waters and seas 5-6 feet.

For Saturday night, SCA conditions mainly for ocean seas, mainly near 5 to 6 ft, with otherwise mainly below SCA conditions. Then for Sunday, expecting widespread SCA wind gusts for all waters. Ocean seas trend down to 4 to 5 ft Sunday. SCA wind gusts diminish Sunday evening with eventually all waters below SCA Sunday night. All waters remain in the forecast below SCA Monday through Tuesday before SCA conditions make their return Tuesday night, mainly for the ocean.



HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.