Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Middle, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:32PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 11:21 PM EDT (03:21 UTC) Moonrise 8:25PMMoonset 7:07AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1008 Pm Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
.gale warning in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon...
Overnight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely in the morning, then showers and chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1008 Pm Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure will remain over the waters tonight as a frontal boundary sinks to the south. Intensifying low pressure moving across upstate new york and new england on Thursday will drag a cold front across Thursday afternoon. The low will move up into northern new england Thursday night and across the canadian maritimes on Friday. High pressure will build from the west Friday night through Saturday night, then move offshore on Sunday. A complex low pressure system will approach Sunday night and move across on Monday. A cold front will move across on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middletown city, NY
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location: 41.45, -74.44     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 090211 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1011 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will remain over the area tonight as a frontal boundary sinks to the south. Intensifying low pressure moving across upstate New York and New England on Thursday will drag a cold front across Thursday afternoon. The low will move up into northern New England Thursday night and across the Canadian Maritimes on Friday. High pressure will build from the west Friday night through Saturday night, then move offshore on Sunday. A complex low pressure system will approach Sunday night and move across on Monday. A cold front will move across on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. Forecast is on track. A mostly clear to ptcldy night most places, except eastern Long Island and SE CT where skies should remain mostly cloudy. Low temps tonight mostly in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/. A small update here, expanded wind advisory in space and time. It now includes all of Essex and Union counties in New Jersey and it starts at 1PM Thursday. The best vertical mixing and wind gust potential extends farther west into Essex and Union and could start with the SW flow just ahead of the cold front in addition to the W flow behind it. Similar to previous forecast, thinking the best mixing will occur in and around NYC Metro, just now expanded a little farther west.

Complicated scenario as intensifying low pressure passes to the north on Thu, then heads up into northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes Thu night into Fri. Showers may come in multiple rounds, the first mid to late AM Thu via low level warm/moist advection with an approaching warm front, then a band of showers/tstms with a cold front during the afternoon. S-SW synoptic scale winds will be increasing along the coast, with some gusts 35-40 mph possible. Most of the tstms with the cold front should be elevated, but given the degree of elevated instability and vertical shear some of these storms could produce strong downdrafts and/or hail. The strongest downdrafts could break the sfc-based inversion and reach the sfc with strong winds especially from NYC north/west.

With the cold front pushing through, a pd of brisk SW to W winds expected in the afternoon into early evening, strong enough in and around NYC to warrant a wind advy there, with sustained winds 25-35 mph and some gusts up to 45 mph. Precip should come quickly to an end, then a few rain/snow showers possible mainly late Thu night as the intensifying cyclone/upper level cutoff low move up along the coast of Maine and a trailing upper trough moves across.

Another trailing upper trough/vort max on the back side of the cutoff low should pass through Fri morning, and as it does so a few snow/rain showers are possible mainly inland. The pressure gradient will once again tighten up, and strong W winds 25-35 mph with gusts 45-50 mph may once again be possible and be more widespread, especially NYC metro and Long Island and the higher inland elevations if not the entire CWA.

Low temps Thu night will be in the 30s to lower 40s, a blend of MOS tempered by model 2m temps as decoupling not expected. Highs on Fri should reach the 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. There will be an active upper level jet stream south of the region Friday night into Saturday that will eventually move northward back into the region Sunday into Sunday night. Early next week, jet will be south of the area and move back north into the region towards midweek.

At the surface, low pressure will be filling in as it continues moving northward within the Canadian Maritimes Friday night. High pressure will build in from the west Friday night into Saturday. The pressure gradient will slowly decrease during the time period. Weather will be dry with winds eventually becoming less gusty. High pressure will strengthen as it moves east Saturday night with the local pressure tendency in the region increasing Saturday night. The high will be moving offshore going into Sunday and will eventually give way to an approaching complex low pressure system approaching from the south and west. The progression of the system will have a warm front passage followed by a cold front passage Monday into Monday evening.

Dry weather will prevail Sunday into Sunday evening as the atmospheric column will have to sufficiently moisten before the commencement of rainfall ahead of this system. Rain becomes likely late Sunday night and continues through much of Monday. Heavy rain will be possible Monday morning with the bulk of the rainfall occurring Monday morning into early Monday afternoon. Rain tapers off Monday night.

Rain showers a possibility again on Tuesday into Tuesday night with another cold frontal passage. Models show possible stalling of the front offshore heading into Wednesday so another chance of rain showers is forecast Wednesday as well.

Temperatures on average are forecast to be a few degrees below normal Friday night through Saturday night, near normal Sunday, above normal Sunday night through Monday night, and closer to normal thereafter.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Weak high pressure remains offshore tonight as a cold front approaches. The front crosses the region around midday Thursday and through the afternoon.

VFR through tonight, with a chance of MVFR ceilings toward sunrise at the coastal terminals. MVFR conditions become widespread toward 15Z Thursday with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms may produce wind gust to near 40 kt. VFR returns aft 18-21Z.

Winds diminish and a return southerly flow develops this evening. South to southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 kt Thursday morning with gusts 20 to 25 kt. Low level wind shear develops Thursday morning and continues into the afternoon.

With the frontal passage winds shift to the west and increase to 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt. Sustained winds and gusts may be a few kt higher in the mid to late afternoon. Gusty W flow continues Thu night.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday Night. VFR with gusty W winds. Friday. VFR with W winds 20-30G35-40kt. Saturday. VFR. Sunday. Becoming MVFR late in the day and at night with chance of shower. Monday. MVFR to IFR in showers.

MARINE. Quiet tonight into Thu AM as low pressure passes east, with only a 2-3 ft ocean swell at most.

S flow ahead of an approaching frontal system should quickly ramp up late Thu AM into the afternoon, with widespread SCA conds and a few gale force wind gusts possible. As a cold front sweeps across in the afternoon, winds should shift W, with a period of gales expected on the waters surrounding NYC and also on the ocean. A lull then expected for at least part of Thu night, then gales should return to the ocean waters late Thu night, and to all waters daytime Fri as low pressure over northern New England intensifies.

Gales should continue on all waters into Friday evening, then on the ocean late Fri night. Saturday features early gales on the ocean with SCA gusts other waters. SCA gusts for all waters Saturday afternoon. Sub-SCA Saturday night into Sunday and into Sunday evening. SCA gusts return for all waters late Sunday night with gales on the ocean probable again Monday with rest of waters maintaining SCA gusts. SCA gusts linger into much of Monday night. Ocean seas forecast of 5 to 8 ft Friday night, 3 to 5 ft Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. Then below 5 ft ocean seas thereafter through Sunday evening. Ocean seas build back up to near 6 to 11 ft late Sunday night into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER. Wetting rains on Thu may help limit fire growth potential on Fri despite strong winds and afternoon 20-30%. With some drying out Sat could also be a day of concern, with W winds still gusting to 20-25 mph and min RH near 30%.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall of 1/4 to 1/2 inch with locally higher amts expected on Thu. Low chance of minor nuisance flooding.

QPF 1-2 inches Sunday night into Monday could also cause at least minor poor drainage flooding at that time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of spring tides (some places needed less than 1/4 ft of positive tidal departures for minor coastal flooding) and background tidal anomaly will have water levels exceeding minor flood thresholds for vulnerable locations along Western Long Island Sound, the south shore bays of western Long Island, and along NY/NJ harbor. This all despite mostly weak wind/wave forcing.

Astronomical tides are about 1/2 ft lower for the Thu AM high tides, but strengthening SE flow ahead of an approaching frontal system should allow for surge of 1-2 ft to develop, with another round of widespread minor coastal flooding in the aforementioned areas. Timing of peak winds looks to be after high tide farther east, but if stronger winds arrive sooner, minor coastal impacts could occur there as well.

Strong offshore flow develops before the Thursday Night high tide cycle. Similar to tonight's tide, not much surge needed to reach minor flooding thresholds. Highest threat of minor coastal flooding is along the south shore bays of Long Island, with water slow to exit through the inlets. Elsewhere, a negative surge will likely have water levels falling below minor flood thresholds.

Breaking waves likely to build to 4-6 ft on Thursday, which will likely cause beach erosion, but dune impacts should be minimal.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ009-010. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 2 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ009-010. NY . Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ072>075- 176>179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ074-075- 178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ074-075-178. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ071-078- 177. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 2 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ071-078-177. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ080-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday for NYZ178-179. NJ . Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ006- 105>108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ006-106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ330-340-345. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ330-340-345. Gale Warning from noon Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ335- 338-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . Goodman NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . Goodman/JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . MARINE . Goodman/JM FIRE WEATHER . HYDROLOGY . Goodman/JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 37 mi51 min Calm 49°F 1005 hPa44°F
TKPN6 47 mi57 min N 1.9 G 2.9 47°F 49°F1004.6 hPa43°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 48 mi51 min Calm 46°F 1004 hPa42°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 54 mi36 min S 7.8 G 9.7 49°F 32°F47°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 56 mi51 min 50°F 49°F1005.1 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY10 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair41°F39°F96%1004.2 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY18 mi36 minN 010.00 miClear45°F41°F87%1004.4 hPa
Sussex, Sussex Airport, NJ19 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair46°F39°F77%1004.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGJ

Wind History from MGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmE34NE4N9NE7NE6NE8N7NE7NE5N7N5NE6N8NE6CalmNE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalm3SW4SW6W5W4SW3CalmW6--NW34W8
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3W10SW8SW3SW4S5S6Calm
2 days agoN5N5N4N4NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmNE4----4Calm5NW4W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:34 AM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:19 AM EDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:56 PM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.63.73.32.41.40.5-0.2-0.6-0.50.41.62.63.33.53.22.61.70.80.1-0.5-0.60.11.32.5

Tide / Current Tables for West Point, Hudson River, New York
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West Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:08 AM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:56 AM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:30 PM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 PM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.92.41.60.80.1-0.4-0.6-0.20.71.72.42.82.82.41.810.3-0.2-0.5-0.40.41.42.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.