Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:13 AM

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LEZ146 Expires:202404280215;;479908 Fzus51 Kcle 271934 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 334 pm edt Sat apr 27 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-280215- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 334 pm edt Sat apr 27 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 280533 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 133 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will continue to move north of Lake Erie this evening as low pressure near Lake Superior tracks northeast into Ontario and Quebec. A second area of low pressure over the Plains will move north into the Upper Midwest through Monday while a large upper ridge remains along the eastern seaboard. A weak front will move east across the area Monday night into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
920 PM...Watching an area of developing convection across eastern IL/western IN this evening in response to a strengthening LLJ. Anticipate NW OH may get clipped by rain and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, but the bulk of the precipitation should be displaced towards the west and northwest.
Otherwise, just expecting some isolated rain showers across the rest of the area through this evening.

Previous Discussion...A warm front extends from low pressure over Lake Superior across eastern Lake Erie into western New York. This warm front will continue to lift north tonight as the low tracks northeast across Ontario into Quebec. This has placed the area in the warm sector with a mix of sun and clouds and gusty winds this afternoon. Temperatures have surged to near 80 along the I-75 corridor with remaining areas in the 70s. A few gusts between 40-50 mph have occured in far NW Ohio while winds farther east have seen gusts more in the 25-35 mph range.
Winds will drop off through 6 PM as the wind field at 850mb decreases from 40 to 30 knots and mixing depths decrease.

It has been challenging today to figure out where convection would develop with minimal instability and a lack of forcing.
We have finally seen a few thunderstorms develop near Bowling Green with scattered showers extending east to almost Akron. It seems anywhere that has a thicker cu field could be prone to scattered showers developing through late afternoon with little organization and ML CAPE values of only 250 J/kg except locally near 500 J/kg towards Toledo. Weak theta-e advection at and below 700mb is focused into NW Ohio through the this evening so it is not surprising to see some development. The theta-e advection continues to be focused ahead of the frontal boundary slowly sinking south across the Central Great Lakes. This may focus additional scattered showers and thunderstorms towards Erie, PA towards morning. We are forecast to see a little better instability of around 1000 J/kg on Sunday but mid levels start to dry and warm air aloft may keep much of the area capped. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in far NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania where a piece of shortwave energy rounding the ridge may provide a focus for convection. Otherwise temperatures will be the main story with most of the area near 80 degrees! Sunday night will be mild with lows in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
An upper level ridge will persist into Monday morning as the area remains in the warm sector of an approaching low pressure centered over the western Great Lakes region. This low pressure and associated upper level trough will pivot over the region, moving a cold front east Monday night into Tuesday. Ahead of this front on Monday afternoon, weak diurnal instability, increasing moisture values, and a 30-40 knot LLJ may be enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, although overall upper level support will not arrive until Monday night with the aforementioned cold front.
For this reason, kept a chance of rain during the day Monday and increased to categorical PoPs Monday night into Tuesday ahead and along the cold front. With a large area of divergence aloft and isentropic lift, wouldn't be surprised if there are some rumbles of thunder overnight as well. By late Tuesday afternoon, a brief weak high pressure builds north over the area which will allow for showers to diminish from west to east and result in a dry period overnight Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday will soar into the low 80s, approaching records for some climate sites across the area.
Tuesday will be a bit cooler, climbing into the low to mid 70s behind the departing cold front, but still remaining above normal for this time of year. Mild overnight lows are expected with temperatures falling into the upper 50s to low 60s Monday night and into the low to mid 50s Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
By the middle of the week, a ridge is forecast to nose north into the area, allowing for much of Wednesday to remain dry. With mostly sunny skies expected to aid in diurnal instability and moisture moving along the western edge of that ridge into the area, opted to keep slight chance of showers in the forecast. The best chance would be late afternoon/early evening given the more favorable timing, but will continue to monitor for this potential. The better chance for rain looks to be Thursday afternoon as an area of upper level energy pushes east, proving support for more widespread shower development, although models do diverge in the strength and timing of this energy which may result in the timing shifting in future forecasts. This pattern looks to continue into Saturday with multiple shortwaves moving across the area so a possibly wet end to the week is possible. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s, gradually cooling into the mid to upper 60s by Saturday. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend, falling into the mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night but cooling into the low to mid 50s by Friday night.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
VFR conditions will continue for this TAF update and during the next 24 hours. The one exception may be for TOL this early this morning between 06z and 09z with a brief potential for MVFR conditions due to passing rain showers. ERI may also have a brief time of MVFR conditions with scattered rain showers and an isolated thunder risk later this morning between 12z and 16z.
For both TOL and ERI, we have mentioned that brief MVFR potential in TEMPO groups. Otherwise, the rest of the area will see partly cloudy to fair weather skies with passing high and mid level clouds during the next 24 hours. Winds will continue from the south or southwest 10 to 15 knots this morning through the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 to 25 knots will be possible after 15z this morning into the afternoon. Southerly winds will decrease to 10 knots or less after sunset this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Non-VFR is most likely in showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday with a cold front.

MARINE
A warm front has lifted north of Lake Erie this afternoon, allowing for southerly winds of 10-15 knots, with gusts of 20-25 knots to become established. With the offshore flow, waves along the southern shore of Lake Erie will remain 1-3 feet, allowing for no Small Craft Advisory to be needed. South-southwest flow of 10-15 knots will remain through Monday before a cold front moves east Monday night into Tuesday. Behind this front, winds will become westerly at 5-10 knots. High pressure will briefly return Tuesday night into Wednesday, allowing for winds to shift back to southwesterly at 5-10 knots through the end of the week. No marine headlines are expected at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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