Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Westlake, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) High pressure will build in and turn milder early this week.

2) Colder temperatures and unsettled weather will return towards the end of the week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will start to build into the area today. Most of the cloud cover has eroded away across northwest and north central Ohio. Lingering lake effect clouds are still holding on to far NEOH and NWPA this morning.
High temperatures will be seasonable today in the middle to upper 50s. A weak cold front will brush by to the northeast tonight and bring a few scattered rain showers to far NEOH and NWPA. Monday's high temperatures will be similar as today in the lower to middle 50s. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern through mid week with high temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s through Wednesday. Dry weather is expected Monday through Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Model guidance indicate the potential for an unsettled and colder weather pattern by the end of this week. There are some forecast model differences and uncertainty Thursday through Saturday. The main message for the long term forecast period will be an deep upper level trough will develop and dig across the Great Lakes and much of the eastern U.S. Thursday through Saturday. A low pressure system and cold front will sweep through the Ohio Valley into the New England region Thursday into Friday. Depending on the track and strength of this system will have an impact on what type of weather we will see. Right now, we will mention colder temperatures and the likely chance for rain and possible mixed with some wet snow at times Thursday through Saturday. High temps will be in the 40s and overnight temps in the 30s.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
Any lingering MVFR ceilings in lake effect stratus will gradually clear out overnight. From there, VFR is expected through Sunday before ceilings lower across portions of NE OH/NW PA after 00Z Monday. A few showers are possible at KERI after 00Z Monday, although the better chance of showers will likely hold off until after the TAF period. Conditions may very briefly drop to MVFR in showers and lower ceilings at KERI towards 06Z, but confidence is too low to include non-VFR conditions in the TAF at this point.

Winds will be out of the west/southwest at 5 to 10 knots overnight. By late Sunday morning, southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots with similar flow continuing through early evening. By 00Z Monday, winds will be more westerly with sustained winds between 10 and 15 knots and gusts to 20 to 25 knots. Winds may remain elevated along the immediate shore of Lake Erie through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Rain showers with potential for non-VFR are likely across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA late Sunday night into Monday. Non-VFR is possible areawide Wednesday night through Thursday with rain showers.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories are in effect today through Monday afternoon. A surface pressure gradient will increase today leading to southwesterly winds 20 to 30 knots this afternoon. Wave heights will subsequently build to 5-8 feet across the nearshore waters and 8-10 feet in the open waters of the central and eastern basins today. A weak cold front will swing southeastward across the lake tonight into early Monday morning causing winds to return from the northwest 20 to 25 knots. High pressure build in and remain in control Monday with wind speeds decreasing 10 to 20 knots and wave heights subsiding to 2 feet or less by Monday night.

There will likely be a brief window Tuesday with southwesterly winds increasing 20 to 25 knots and waves build to 3-6 feet.
Another set of Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the central and eastern basins. A stronger low pressure may develop and track across the Upper Ohio Valley later this week with stronger winds and higher waves again on Lake Erie.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ144-145.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Monday for LEZ146>149.