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ANZ332 Long Island Sound East Of The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 729 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.storm watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Slight chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain developing. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain and slight chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 729 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure over the western atlantic will continue to gradually move eastward, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east. A strong cold frontal passage will occur late Sunday night into Monday morning, with low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into canada on Monday. Strong high pressure building to the south on Tuesday will flatten out, allowing a cold front to approach Tuesday night and pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 100113 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 813 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to gradually move eastward, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east. A strong cold frontal passage will occur late Sunday night into Monday morning, with low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into Canada on Monday. Strong high pressure building to to the south on Tuesday will flatten out, allowing a cold front to approach Tuesday night and pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week, then shift off the New England coast Saturday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
A warm front will be nearby this evening and shift north through the night, with increasing clouds with patchy fog developing.
Isentropic lift with increasing low level moisture may result in some light rain forming in a few spots during the overnight hours. Low temps should be above normal due to cloud cover and WAA.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
A 500 mb trough digs in to our west on Sunday, then lifts during the day Monday with its axis shifting through the forecast area Monday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front approaches us on Sunday and passes through during Sunday night. While it's passing through, an area of low pressure develops along the front, passing through or nearby the forecast area before rapidly deepening to our NE.

Rain chances ramp up through the day with the entire forecast area likely seeing rain by the end of the afternoon. The rain could be heavy at times as early as the afternoon as per latest CAM reflectivity, with this potential lasting into the night.
The heavy rain potential comes from a developing strong low level jet combining with deep synoptic lift aloft and an anomalously moist air mass. Some models continue to show some elevated instability, so with deep lift, will keep in an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast. Models continue to favor eastern areas for the higher total rain amounts, as the llj will be stronger here, and forcing/convergence near the deepening low center will be passing through or nearby. Further enhancement may occur in parts of CT due to speed convergence on a southerly flow. The flood watch has been extended to include eastern Suffolk County as the trend for heavier rain totals remains focused more over eastern sections. See the hydrology section below for more details.

Regarding winds for this event, for several days now, 925mb winds continue to be progged reach 60-80 kt over roughly the eastern half of the forecast area Sunday night. Even by late afternoon, they're progged at 50-60 kt. There will be a low level inversion, but not particularly strong. Especially with the threat of convectively enhanced downpours and models showing 50-60kt winds below the inversion at 1000 ft, there is an increased threat of seeing wind gusts reaching high wind warning thresholds in some areas. Thinking about 60-70% of the 925 mb jet could mix down. Complicating this is that there could be a couple hours of a lull in the winds as low pressure takes shape along the developing low nearby or just off to our south. There could be a pretty sharp east to west gradient where winds could get to at least wind advisory criteria. There also could be a timing offset on when the potential convective downpours could occur with the strongest winds aloft. Therefore do not have the confidence at this time to upgrade to a high wind warning for the zones currently under a watch. There is a possibility that the threat will be more focused over Long Island, and not so much for Brooklyn and Queens. Will however maintain the watch for the time being. However, after collaboration with WFO BOX, have enough confidence to go with a wind advisory along portions of the CT Coast.

Rain chances continue into Monday even behind the front as the flow aloft remains cyclonic and we'll be within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. Some cold air wraps in behind the front, and may cause a mix of rain and snow well NW of the city in the morning. Little to no snow accumulation expected. Remaining breezy through the day as we dry out for the afternoon. Highs generally in the 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Quasi-zonal flow aloft in the wake of one departing trough on Tue will give way to another northern stream trough on Wednesday, which should drive a cold front through either late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Confluent mid level flow after this trough passage, followed by ridging aloft Fri-Sat, will then maintain strong sfc high pressure over the area, with perhaps a weak intervening cold frontal passage Friday night. A storm system to the west should hold off until just after the forecast period, with some increase in high/mid cloud cover Sat into Sat night.

Forecast follows the NBM for the most part given close enough NWP model guidance agreement during this time frame, with only minor adjustments. Fair wx should prevail through the period, with only slight chance (20%) PoP for late Sat night. Near normal temps Tue- Wed, and a little below normal Wed night-Thu after the cold frontal passage, should moderate to a few degrees above normal Fri-Sat via ridging sfc and aloft.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure moves offshore and away from the area tonight, while a strengthening frontal system approaches Sunday and crosses the region Sunday Night.

Patchy IFR/MVFR across eastern terminals this evening, expected to become more widespread late tonight into Sun AM push. SHRA chances increase during the mid morning, with IFR/LIFR in +SHRA expected Sun aft into Sun Night. Isolated TSRA possible.

Light southerly flow tonight. Southerly flow will increase through Sunday afternoon, with southerly gusts 35 to 45 kt likely at the coastal terminals for the late aft/evening push.
Highest gusts for KJFK/KISP/KGON.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR conditions likely, IFR possible for morning push. Scattered rain showers possible for morning push. +SHRA with IFR/LIFR conds and gusts 35 to 40 kt likely for evening push. Isolated TSRA possible for aft/eve push as well. LLWS w/ S winds of 50-60kt at 2kft for coastal terminals in aft/eve.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: IFR, with +SHRA. Isolated TSRA possible. S winds 25-35G30-45kt for coastal terminals, strongest for eastern terminals. A peak gust up to 50 kt possible at KISP/KGON. LLWS with S winds of 50-60kt@2kft for coastal terminals in the evening. FROPA to NW winds 15g25kt btwn 03-05z for western terminals and 9-12z for eastern terminals

Monday: MVFR or lower for AM push in RA/SN mix for western terminals. VFR in afternoon. W-WNW winds 20-25G30-40kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. W to NW gusts 15-25 kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas should ramp up quickly during Sunday with SCA cond quickly going to gales by late in the day/early evening.
After collaboration with the surrounding offices, have maintained a Storm Watch where it has existed, but was confident enough to convert the Gale Watches to Gale Warnings.
Gales are expected to continue through Monday, and possibly linger into Monday evening for these zones. Gales would also prevail elsewhere Monday into Monday night. Ocean seas are likely build to 10-16 feet during this time with waves over 5 ft across portions of eastern Long Island Sound.

Longer term, SCA cond expected for the most part. Hazardous ocean seas 5-8 ft Tue AM should subside to 4-6 ft by afternoon, then remain at those levels into at least Wed night.
Meanwhile W flow gusting up to 25 kt on all waters Tue night, should shift NW by Wed morning after a cold frontal passage.
Gusts could peak at 30 kt on the ocean Wed night. Lingering 25-kt gusts are possible on the ocean and the open Sound waters into daytime Thu.

HYDROLOGY
Concern for flooding, particularly for S CT, Sun Eve/Night is increasing. A flood watch is in effect for the entire area.

Between 2 and 3 inches of rain is likely across much of the Tri- State, with 3 to 4 inches for southern Connecticut.
Rainfall rates of 1/2-3/4"/hr are possible as bands of heavy showers and embedded tstm activity track north through the region Sun aft thru Sun night from w to e. Latest high res guidance indicated this banding could be most persistent across LI and S CT, with a weak signal for in excess of 5" of storm total rain and exceedance of 6hr FFG.

Fortunately streamflow is generally at normal levels and soil moisture only slightly above normal. But with most of the rain falling over a 12 hr period, widespread urban, poor drainage, and flashy river/stream flooding is likely. Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding and exceedance of moderate flood thresholds of quick responding rivers/streams is possible if and where the heaviest rainfall axis of 3-4, locally 5" sets up. Again, right now focus is moreso S CT and LI. Location predictability on these axis could always shift by 25 to 50 miles.

Heaviest rainfall will be pushing east of the region Monday morning, but with high tide approaching, and rivers remaining high or rising, residual flooding issues will likely continue for the Monday morning commute.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A strong cold front will bring increasing southerly flow late Sunday into Sunday night. The system brings potential for minor coastal flooding with the Monday morning high tide cycle.
However, the strongest southerly flow is most likely to occur between high tide cycles. Winds will quickly shift to the west early Monday morning, which will help keep water levels down during times of high tide.

Surge guidance has come to more of a consensus that much of the area should remain below minor flooding thresholds, but any changes in the forecast timing of the developing low may result in significant changes to the coastal flooding forecast.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for CTZ005>012.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for CTZ010>012.
NY...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NYZ075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ331- 335-338.
Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ332-340-345-350-353-355.

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Norwich
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Sat -- 12:42 AM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:32 AM EST     3.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:27 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:59 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:57 PM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Norwich, Connecticut, Tide feet

The Race
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Sat -- 02:11 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:06 AM EST     2.42 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:25 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:34 AM EST     -2.92 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:59 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:58 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:41 PM EST     2.27 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:58 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:52 PM EST     -2.48 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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