Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mashantucket, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:23PM Sunday July 12, 2020 6:54 PM EDT (22:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:17AMMoonset 12:44PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 416 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 5 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 416 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Gusty southwest winds diminish, but southern waters will continue with marine headlines through Monday evening. A front moves across the waters mid to late afternoon Monday, producing scattered showers and storms. The greatest threat with these storms are lightning and gusty winds. Tuesday will feature less in the way of precipitation, but a cold pool aloft will aid in the formation of pop-up Thundershowers. Mid- week high pressure followed by a front on Thursday night into Friday with the next chance for rain. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mashantucket, CT
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location: 41.46, -71.97     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 122219 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 619 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front lingers offshore through Monday. Weak cold front pushes south of the area Tuesday. High builds behind the front Wednesday before moving east over the ocean Thursday. Trough and surface boundary approach southern New York Friday before lingering into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. A broad upper trough extends from the OH Valley through the northeast US with multiple shortwaves embedded. The local area remains between two shortwave features this afternoon with some ridging aloft, resulting in mainly dry conditions and partly cloudy skies under westerly/southwesterly flow. A sea breeze has developed across Long Island as well. Some scattered showers are developing across eastern PA, and may clip northwest zones this evening, but impacts are expected to be low. Temperatures are in the upper 80s across the region, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, making it feel less humid compared to previous days.

There is a high risk of rip current development at Atlantic Ocean beaches today due to continued long period southerly swell through this evening.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/. By this evening, a weak shortwave out ahead of the main upper trough approaches from the southwest. Moisture increases with predominately southwest flow through the evening. These, combined with the frontal boundary to the south, will result in increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances by early Monday morning. Model soundings do indicate some elevated instability for a period early Monday morning, so a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out with any showers/storms that do move through the area. Latest 12Z CAMs/HREF have trended down the areal coverage of precipitation relative to their previous cycles, however.

Attention later on Monday focuses on the flash flood and severe thunderstorm potential, as the main upper trough axis and attendant cold front approach the area by Monday evening. Some uncertainly exists with respect to convective development overall, which will hinge on the amount of destabilization realized during the late morning and early afternoon. The convective threat will be somewhat diminished if the early morning cloud cover and precipitation hangs on longer than currently forecast. Current thinking is that clouds and any remaining showers are out of the area by 14-16Z, which is broadly supported by short term model guidance.

First, areal mean precipitable water values will remain elevated, near 1.5-2 inches, so any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce flash flooding. This will be especially true across northeastern NJ and the southern Hudson Valley which saw some of the highest rainfall totals from TS Fay late last week. 1-hr FFG has been consistently around 0.5-1" in these areas the past couple of days. In addition, 12Z HREF is showing a swath of 60-80% >1" per hour exceedance probabilities for parts of SW CT Monday afternoon. NCEP/WPC has SW CT in a slight risk and the remainder of our area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Monday.

Second, a warm humid airmass in place ahead of the approaching cold front, along with sufficient daytime heating will result in an increased threat of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. Moderate instability, with model soundings indicating SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40 kts look sufficient to support a few organized storms. NCEP/SPC maintains a marginal risk for the entire area on Monday. Convective activity looks to diminsh by Monday evening as the cold front clears the coast.

Lows Monday morning will range from the upper 60s inland to the low 70s elsewhere. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s as dewpoints rise back into the upper 60s to around 70.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Upper level trough over central New England drops south through southern New York Tuesday. At the same time weak cold front near the Connecticut/ Massachusetts border pushes south. With the added lift from the trough overhead opted for scattered showers intimating along the front and chance PoPs for the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut. Areas not impacted by showers will likely reach temperatures in the upper 80s for the afternoon.

Conditions dry and lingering rain comes to an end overnight once the aforementioned trough shifts over the Atlantic. Temperatures should fall into the low 70s/ upper 60s due to the clearing skies overhead.

Ridge builds into the Northeast Wednesday as a 1022mb surface high off the coast of Cape Cod drifts south promoting a more stable environment locally. 1000-500 mb RH values below 40% should keep skies relatively cloud free. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s will make for a pleasant Summers day.

As the high and ridge drift east late in the week into the weekend expect a return to a more wet and unstable environment. A long wave trough moving east into New England pulls north Gulf moisture into New York. Precipitable water values above 1.70 inches could fuel heavy rain Friday and possibly Saturday. Timing of the trough is still uncertain at this time and will have to be monitored for future updates.

AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Weak high pressure across the region will eventually give way to approaching low pressure tonight into Monday.

VFR continues through much of tonight. However, chances for MVFR will increase late tonight into Monday with a chance of rain showers. Due to uncertainty in exact timing, left as VCSH in TAFs after 04-06Z Monday. This initial timing could be a few hours off.

W-SW flow 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt will eventually subside this evening with winds overall becoming more SW and decreasing to near 5-8 kt. Wind direction becomes variable late tonight into Monday before a more S-SW flow 5-10 kt returns Monday late morning into afternoon.

Thunderstorms are a possibility as well late tonight into Monday but at this point, probabilities are too low to include in TAFs. Chances for thunderstorms will increase Monday afternoon, becoming likely.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Monday. Showers and thunderstorms likely afternoon into early evening before diminishing thereafter from west to east. MVFR to locally IFR conditions possible, otherwise VFR. S-SW winds 7-12 kt becoming W-NW going into the evening. Tuesday and Wednesday. Mainly VFR. Thursday-Friday. Mainly VFR. A chance of SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower conditions possible, mainly Thursday night and Friday.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory continues on the ocean waters into this evening due to seas around 5 feet in lingering southerly swell. Seas will begin to fall below 5 feet west of Fire Island Inlet later this evening and farther east conditions will continue to remain elevated through Monday morning, before gradually fall below 5 feet during the day. After gusts to 20-25 kt on the ocean today, winds will generally remain below 20 kt on all waters through mid week.

Ocean waters relax below 4 feet Tuesday and remain between 3 and 4 feet through the week. Light north winds 10-15kts become more southerly by mid week into the weekend.

HYDROLOGY. Showers and thunderstorms on Monday could result in flash flooding, especially across northeast New Jersey where flash flood guidance remains less than one inch/hour, and southwest CT where the heaviest rain is expected.

No significant widespread rainfall is expected Tuesday through Saturday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/DBR NEAR TERM . DBR SHORT TERM . DBR LONG TERM . DJ AVIATION . JM MARINE . DJ/DBR HYDROLOGY . DJ/DBR EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 9 mi54 min SW 7 G 11 84°F 72°F1005 hPa (-0.4)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 28 mi54 min 78°F 70°F1006.2 hPa (+0.0)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi54 min WSW 13 G 16 82°F 76°F1005.3 hPa (+0.3)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 34 mi54 min SSW 13 G 16 74°F 68°F1005.5 hPa (+0.0)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi69 min WSW 8.9 84°F 1005 hPa69°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi54 min WSW 7 G 13 83°F 1005.8 hPa (+0.4)
PRUR1 37 mi54 min 76°F 71°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 38 mi54 min 83°F 79°F1005.1 hPa (+0.5)
PVDR1 38 mi54 min WSW 12 G 15 85°F 1005.1 hPa (+0.3)68°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi54 min WSW 12 G 16 87°F 76°F1005 hPa (+0.3)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 45 mi54 min SSW 14 G 17 82°F 1005 hPa (+0.3)
FRXM3 45 mi54 min 84°F 68°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi54 min 85°F 77°F1005.5 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT10 mi2 hrsWSW 11 G 1810.00 miFair83°F66°F57%1005.3 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI12 mi61 minSW 710.00 miFair86°F64°F48%1005.7 hPa
Willimantic, Windham Airport, CT23 mi62 minWSW 10 G 1510.00 miFair85°F66°F55%1005 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE18
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SE15SE15SE15SE18S19S17S14S8S11S7SW6S8S4S8S9S9S9S10S10S10S9
2 days agoS8S5CalmCalmE3CalmSE3E5E4NE4NE4NE5E6NE6E6E7E12E13E13E9E13E14
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Tide / Current Tables for Norwich, Connecticut
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Norwich
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:35 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:23 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:03 PM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.12.52.72.72.52.21.81.410.70.71.21.92.42.83.132.72.421.61.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:04 AM EDT     1.93 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:25 AM EDT     -2.33 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:29 PM EDT     2.14 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:57 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:58 PM EDT     -2.35 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.61.91.71.10.4-0.7-1.7-2.3-2.2-1.6-0.70.41.42.12.11.60.9-0.1-1.2-2-2.3-2-1.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.