Laporte, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laporte, PA

June 16, 2024 11:20 PM EDT (03:20 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM
Moonrise 2:31 PM   Moonset 1:04 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laporte, PA
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Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 170312 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1112 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
*Partly to mostly sunny and warmer for Father's Day *Long duration and potentially dangerous heat wave this week *High temperatures 90+ degrees Monday into next weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
1030 pm update... Recent satellite imagery has shown the development of a SE-NW oriented band of shallow cumulus clouds across central PA this evening. This cloud band appears to have formed at the leading edge of warmer, more humid air above the boundary layer (within the 925-850 mb layer). Present indications are that this band of clouds will push to the ENE and slowly disperse overnight, as this pseudo-warm front aloft moves steadily to the northeast.

No other changes at this time.

8 pm update... The current forecast is in excellent shape, so just a few near-term tweaks were made based on the latest observational data.

A clear and pleasant summer night is in store, with a diurnal cumulus field across the Alleghenies quickly fading at this time. It appears that most, if not all of the mid and upper- level convective cloud debris circulating around the building upper ridge axis will stay well north and west of the region overnight, lending high confidence in skies remaining clear.

Despite decent radiating conditions overnight, fairly strong warm advection just above the boundary layer will still lead to a milder night than what we've seen recently, with lows by daybreak ranging from the upper 50s in the northern mountains, to the mid 60s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Earlier discussion... A nice Father's Day evening with partly cloudy to mainly clear skies into tonight. There may be a couple patches of fog around daybreak Monday, but overall a seasonably mild night for mid June with min temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s or +5-10F above climo.

A heat wave begins Monday starting an extended period of max temps 90+ degrees. An anomalous 500mb subtropical ridge builds over the region and will bring hot and humid weather to Central PA. Warm mid level temps should largely suppress convection, but can't rule out (10-20% chance) an isolated shower or t-storm Monday afternoon along the spine of the Alleghenies -- where the elevated heat source could aid in breaking the cap.

Trending warmer and more humid Monday night with low temps in the 65-70F range or about +7-15F above climo.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Increasing heat and humidity should allow heat index values to reach the century mark in most places Tuesday afternoon. We issued a heat advisory in coordination with neighboring WFOs between 12-8pm. Scattered, pulse-type convection remains possible under the heat dome Tuesday afternoon -- primarily along the spine of the Alleghenies. The threat for PM convection looks even more limited on Wednesday as temps continue to warm aloft. The heat wave rolls on through midweek with highs 90-95 forecast with max HX approaching 100F. Additional heat headlines may be needed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
All medium range guidance continues to show that a prolonged heat wave will occur throughout the extended forecast period. A 595-600 dm 500 mb ridge will be situated over Central Pennsylvania and temperatures will easily reach the 90s across most of the region each day. Temperatures will ramp up each day giving us our hottest days for the second half of the week.
Heat indices will be in the upper 90s and low 100s, with the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Some models indicate the potential for a few showers or thunderstorms each afternoon across the northern tier, but coverage should be very limited and elevation driven.

Ensembles show the ridge beginning to flatten out a little by Saturday which would allow for a slightly higher chance of showers or storms, particularly across the northern half of the area.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will support widespread VFR conditions with mainly clear skies and light winds overnight. Not expecting any fog formation as it should be too dry. VFR conditions continue throughout the day on Monday and skies will remain mainly clear other than any cumulus that develop in the afternoon. A few models show some showers developing across the western half of the area, but this is a low confidence solution at this point.

Outlook...

Tue-Fri...Predominantly VFR, with building heat. Density altitude concerns possible.

CLIMATE
A period of much warmer than average temperatures is expected across much of central Pennsylvania next week, with record high temperatures being challenged. The record high temperatures for some sites across central PA are outlined below:

Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21

Harrisburg 97/1957 98/1994 98/1931 98/1923 Williamsport 97/2018 96/1929 101/1923 97/1933 State College 94/1923 94/1931 94/1953 94/1988

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KIPT27 sm26 minSSE 11G1910 smClear75°F54°F47%30.12
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