Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM   Moonset 12:59 PM

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LEZ145 Vermilion To Avon Point Oh-avon Point To Willowick Oh- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 400 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Today - North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 58 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 021944 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 344 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift north across the area tonight into Friday, followed by a cold front late Friday into Saturday.
Another cold front will move east across the area on Sunday, then stall across the southern Ohio Valley on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
An active short term period is in store with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Friday afternoon and evening.
Severe weather chances remain very low, although can't rule out a strong storm or two, especially east of the I-71 corridor Friday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain may also accompany any stronger storms.

For this evening and overnight, starting to see signs of the warm front across the Ohio Valley, evident by a well-defined cu field surging north. Have kept the chance for an isolated shower/storm later this evening across NW OH as the interaction between the lake-enhanced breeze and warm front could result in increased convergence and lift. As we head overnight into Friday, a cold front will begin to approach the area from the west, with shower and thunderstorm coverage expected to increase across portions of southern Michigan, Indiana, and eventually into Northwest Ohio. Will need to monitor outflow patterns from this overnight convection as these boundaries appear to be driving the shower/thunderstorm initiation for Friday afternoon and evening.

The updated SPC SWODY2 keeps much of the area in a general thunder risk for Friday. This appears reasonable given weak MLCAPE of 500 J/kg or less in addition to bulk shear less than 30 knots. However, still can't rule out a stronger storm or two with wind being the primary risk as low-level lapse rates remain elevated, especially east of the I-71 corridor ahead of the pre-frontal nocturnal convection. Would typically also be concerned about heavy rainfall given slow storm motions, but seasonable PWATs less than 1.50 inches should limit the overall flash flooding threat, especially as current FFGs are hovering around 2" in 3 hours.

Only big change to the temperature forecast on Friday was to utilize the 25% NBM which increased highs out east ahead of the convection, and lowered highs out west where showers/thunderstorms are expected to linger.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The weekend will start off unsettled as a weak stationary front will be draped in the vicinity of eastern Ohio, western PA, and the northern Appalachians Saturday due to rather strong mid/upper ridging holding over the eastern CONUS and the upper support lifting well to the NW over James Bay. The front will essentially be washed out and only serve as a weak wind shift, but pooling low-level moisture near and along it combined with weak upper level diffluence will keep showers and a few thunderstorms going, especially over areas east of I-77. The coverage of the precip is uncertain though because there is no real forcing other than moisture pooling and weak diffluence, and cloud cover will hold down instability, with only a few hundred joules of SBCAPE projected by HRRR guidance. This may lead to a lot of drizzle and low clouds, with the heavier showers and thunderstorms more limited. Nevertheless, since forcing is weak, the flow through the column will be weak leading to slow moving showers/storms which could lead to localized flooding, especially in areas that see heavy rain Friday night. Deep layer flow parallel to the stalled front supports this potential with any deeper convection that manages to develop, but PWATs will not be especially high (averaging 1.50 inches which is climatologically normal). This will truly keep the flood threat localized, with most areas just seeing some beneficial rain.

By Saturday night and Sunday, a weak mid/upper shortwave moving through the central Great Lakes will slowly push a secondary cold front across the region from NW to SE, which will overtake the old frontal boundary. This will start to gradually push the best chances for showers/storms farther SE, so have the highest PoPs gradually shifting farther SE Saturday night and Sunday. By Sunday night, it looks like the boundary will finally be far enough away for mostly dry conditions as surface ridging and associated drier air build in from the north, so kept PoPs mostly slight chance Sunday night. All in all, not a washout this weekend by any means, but Sunday will have less coverage of precip than Saturday.

Highs Saturday will be kept in the low/mid 70s in most areas, with upper 60s in far eastern Ohio and western PA where clouds and precip will be greater. Sunday will be slightly warmer with highs in the low/mid 70s areawide thanks to a bit more sunshine and less precip.
Lows Saturday night will range from the mid 50s to low 60s, with low/mid 50s Sunday night and decreasing humidity as the drier air finally works in.



LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An active pattern will quickly return next week as a strong mid/upper shortwave trough moves through the Rockies Monday then gradually lifts into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest by midweek. This will force downstream height rises over the eastern CONUS, with flat ridging across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic regions. The frontal boundary from Sunday will start to lift back north as a warm front in response to the height rises and developing southerly flow Monday and will then set up as a quasi-stationary east-west front/baroclinic zone Tuesday through Thursday. Shortwave impulses ejecting out of the broader upstream trough will traverse this boundary and interact with increasingly rich low-level moisture and instability to generate multiple MCS clusters. This could bring strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall. The overall pattern is becoming more clear, however, the details are still very uncertain regarding where this boundary will ultimately set-up. It will likely waver a bit north and south. As of now, the strongest shortwave seems to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, so have the highest PoPs at that time. However, given the uncertainty with this pattern, kept a broad brushed, blended PoP forecast with at least high chance PoPs Monday through Thursday. It will definitely not rain all the time, but again, we could have multiple rounds.

Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Monday will warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, then cool slightly into the mid/upper 70s Thursday.



AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with primarily VFR to persist through the TAF period. Could see an isolated shower/storm across NW OH this evening, but confidence remains too low for TAF inclusion at TOL/FDY at this time. Confidence increases in thunderstorm chances overnight into Friday morning out west, so have included vcts at TOL/FDY in this update. Did include vcts mention starting at 19Z Friday for CLE since widespread convection is expected to develop at or after 18Z Friday. At the very minimum, think at least vcts mention will be needed across the eastern TAF sites in the next update.

Winds are generally out of the east to northeast early this afternoon, 10 knots or less. Winds will gradually shift more towards the southeast overnight, becoming south, 10 knots or less, as a warm front lifts north across the area Friday morning into the early afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Sunday. Non-VFR may return in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

MARINE
Quiet weather will continue on the lake through the period as pressure gradients remain weak. The only impactful winds and waves will come from localized stronger thunderstorms. E to NE winds will decrease to 5-10 knots tonight and Friday, with ENE winds then increasing back to 10-15 knots Saturday before turning SE at 10-15 knots Saturday night and finally swinging all the way around to W to NW Sunday while decreasing to 5-10 knots. NE winds will then redevelop Sunday night and increase to 10-15 knots Monday before turning SE Monday night and Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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