Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sandusky, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:56PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 8:21 AM EDT (12:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:15AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Expires:202005270830;;807298 Fzus51 Kcle 270142 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 942 Pm Edt Tue May 26 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez142>149-270830- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 942 Pm Edt Tue May 26 2020
Overnight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 57 degrees, off cleveland 54 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.
LEZ144


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sandusky, OH
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location: 41.46, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 271032 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 632 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will ridge into the area from the east through this evening. Weak low pressure then moves northward from the Carolinas reaching western Pennsylvania Thursday morning. This low weakens as it moves off to the east through Thursday afternoon. Our attention shifts to the west for Thursday evening into Friday. Weakening low pressure will move up the Ohio River Valley Thursday evening then a cold front moves across the region on Friday. High pressure enters the Great Lakes region for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure will ridge into the area from the east through this evening. There will be more cloud cover today which could impact highs. However the cloud cover is assisting with keeping lows up this morning so most locations will be starting out warmer than the last couple days. So another run at record highs is possible. Scattered thunderstorms will once again be possible but should be limited to NW Ohio where the deeper moisture is located. A heavier downpour and maybe a couple marginally severe storms will be possible.

The thunderstorms quickly dissipated this evening but we will then monitor the approach of weak low pressure from the Carolinas. This low should reach western Pennsylvania Thursday morning. This should provide increasing chances of showers/thunderstorms across the eastern half of the CWA. The best chances will be near the OH/PA border and across NW PA. Lows should be in the middle to upper 60's across the west and near the lakeshore. Where it rains lower to mid 60's will be possible.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. On Thursday night and Friday, the closed low over the mid- Mississippi Valley gets ingested into an upper-level trough diving southeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, resulting in a strong cold front being forced across the area on Friday afternoon. Some convection from Thursday afternoon is expected to linger into Friday with some instability still around through the nighttime hours. A lull in precipitation is expected late Thursday night into early Friday morning.

By 12Z Friday, the cold front is expected to be located across lower Michigan and just getting into northwest Ohio. Modest instability will build ahead of this cold front with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg across the area. This should be sufficient for convection to develop along and ahead of the cold front Friday morning. A 500mb jet of 40- 55 knots will move overhead, with 0-6km bulk shear ranging from 30- 50 knots across the forecast area. Moderate vertical winds shear should be sufficient to aid in organized convection and with the shear vector parallel to the front, this convection should quickly evolve into a line of thunderstorms. This combination of instability and shear should be sufficient for some strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. There are some caveats with Friday's potential though:

*There will be some clouds around Friday morning, which could limit how much instability we have to work with. *There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of the cold front. The GFS/CMC have it moving through our forecast area much quicker, which could limit severe potential. *Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (less than -6 C/km) which will limit instability and thus updraft strength potential.

So while there is potential for some severe thunderstorms on Friday, there is still a lot of uncertainty at this point.

The cold front is expected to be completely through the forecast area by 00Z Saturday. Some models are also hinting at a second (but weaker) cold front quickly following late Friday night as well.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure builds in following the aforementioned cold front, centering over Ohio by Monday. This will allow a cooler airmass to build in with temperatures expected to be around 5-10 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year, though mostly sunny skies through Monday should allow the May sun angle to keep it feeling warm during the afternoon hours. The next potential for precipitation will be on Tuesday when a shortwave propagates through northwest flow.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/. Plenty of high level cloud cover will flow across the region today. However we will still be able to keep VFR conditions at most locations through the day. The exception will be across NW OH where scattered thunderstorms should develop. The MVFR/IFR conditions will be limited to near the thunderstorms. Will carry a PROB30 for KTOL since it looks like the only terminal that will be hit by thunder. Will monitor KFDY and add if it appears they will be impacted.

Southerly winds should be 10 knots or less through the TAF period. A brief wind shift will be possible at CLE/ERI with the development of a lake breeze which could shift the winds more northeasterly for a few hours.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms on Thursday. More widespread thunderstorms and non-VFR possible Friday with a cold front.

MARINE. Relatively quiet weather still expected on Lake Erie through the forecast period as winds and waves don't get excessive. Winds expected to be generally 10 knots or less through Thursday. By Thursday night, winds increase to 15 knots out of the southwest ahead of an advancing cold front. That cold front will move southeast across Lake Erie on Friday afternoon, with winds becoming predominantly northwesterly through the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MM NEAR TERM . MM SHORT TERM . Saunders LONG TERM . Saunders AVIATION . MM MARINE . Saunders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 6 mi51 min SSE 5.1 G 8 71°F 57°F1016.9 hPa59°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 10 mi81 min S 6 G 11 71°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.0)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 12 mi96 min SE 1.9 71°F 1017 hPa60°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 14 mi81 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 68°F 1016.7 hPa (+0.0)
CMPO1 17 mi111 min S 6 71°F
LORO1 27 mi51 min S 12 G 15 73°F
TWCO1 33 mi31 min SSE 8 G 8.9 58°F
45165 34 mi31 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 69°F 66°F63°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 36 mi81 min SSE 9.9 G 9.9 70°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 44 mi51 min SSE 6 G 8 70°F 1016.8 hPa61°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH29 mi28 minS 910.00 miFair70°F57°F66%1017.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLPR

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW3S5CalmE4E5NE8NE7NE9E9E5E4CalmSE3CalmCalmS4S4S4S7S6S9S9S9
1 day agoS4SW55W63CalmW4SW18N3CalmSE7SE6SE4S4S3S4S6S6CalmS3CalmS3S3S3
2 days agoSW9SW9SW8SW4SW6S5S9S8SW7SW9S8SW8S6S5S7S4S3CalmS4SW3S3S4S5S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.