Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 2:03 PM   Moonset 2:26 AM

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LEZ146 Expires:202405170815;;338874 Fzus51 Kcle 170132 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 932 pm edt Thu may 16 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-170815- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 932 pm edt Thu may 16 2024
Overnight - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - East winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 63 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 170752 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 352 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure will influence the region through Saturday before high pressure returns Saturday night through Monday. The high will shift east of the area Monday night as the next system approaches from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak troughing will influence the local area today with a couple of shortwaves lifting across the CWA this morning and again this afternoon. Showers, currently over the western portion of the area, will continue to spread east across the local area through this morning before largely exiting to the east by early afternoon. There's a little bit of instability in place this morning, so can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder within more convective showers. Instability increases during peak diurnal heating this afternoon and there will be plenty of moisture in place so scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop this afternoon before diminishing this evening. While showers will be progressive this morning, unseasonably high PWATs in addition to very weak steering flow will could result in slow-moving showers/storms and potential for locally heavy rainfall. With that being said, the scattered nature of precipitation will keep the flash flooding potential relatively low. The severe weather threat is also low given weak shear.

Patchy fog will likely develop tonight due to residual low level moisture and light and variable surface winds; moisture from today's precipitation will likely add additional moisture that could lead to patchy dense fog.

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Saturday as weak low pressure meanders into the Ohio Valley. PoPs should largely be influenced by terrain, so the highest chance PoPs are largely confined to the southern half of the CWA Similar to today, slow-moving showers/storms are possible due to high PWAT values and weak steering flow.

Highs will be in the 70s today with the warmest temps in the upper 70s expected near the I-75 corridor and lower 70s more likely across NE OH and NW PA. Tonight's lows will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s with Saturday's maximum temps climbing into the mid to upper 70s (NE OH/NW PA) to lower 80s (NW OH).

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The short term forecast period for much of the weekend into Monday will be quiet. An upper ridge will build into the eastern CONUS with a trough being subverted south into the Southeast United States. The ridge across the region will allow for high pressure to build front the northeast and hold firm across the area through Monday. The surface high will move east on Monday and allow for a warm front to lift north across the region. A shortwave will try to ripple through the upper trough on Monday night, but this energy may hit a wall with the ridge and trends are drier for Monday night. Temperatures will be above normal for the 3rd weekend of May, as 80s are becoming increasingly favored. Mid 80s will be favored by Monday with the warm front through the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The dry pattern with the upper ridge across the region will breakdown for the middle of next week. However, the trends for this pattern evolution continue to be slower with the wettest day landing firmly on Wednesday for now. A deep upper trough will enter the central US on Tuesday and progress east with several waves through the week. One wave will start to break down the ridge on Tuesday and nudge it eastward with the main wave entering on Wednesday with the main trough axis crossing the region by Wednesday night. Have PoPs increasing through the period with the highest PoPs on Wednesday.
The PoPs on Tuesday may be a bit high as the first wave may not do much for generating convection in the forecast area. A more progressive region will set up for the end of the week and have residual chance PoPs through the end of the period. All in all, temperatures will be above normal for any time period ahead of the trough axis, or Tuesday and Wednesday for now. Temperatures will return toward normal for the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
Showers will move east across the area during the first half of the TAF period. Ceilings and visibilities will start off as VFR before dropping to MVFR within a couple of hours of the onset of the showers. A few guidance members are trending towards more pessimistic IFR ceilings this morning into this afternoon, but would like to see how upstream ceilings trend over the next few hours before considering adding IFR conditions to the TAFs.
There may be some embedded thunder within heavier showers this morning, but as of now the best chance will be at KFDY/KMFD. The majority of the rain should exit to the east by late morning or early afternoon, but scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will likely persist primarily south a line from KFDY to KYNG through early this evening. Ceilings should gradually rise to VFR at western terminals this afternoon, but MVFR in lower stratus and perhaps patchy fog will likely persist at or return to eastern terminals towards the end of the TAF period.

Light and variable winds overnight will become southerly this morning before becoming light and variable Friday night.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms through Saturday and again on Tuesday.

MARINE
The forecast for Lake Erie through the first days of next week is very quiet with limited weather of note. Today will likely be the most active day on the lake with light southeast flow and a window for showers and thunderstorms with a weak system moving through the region. High pressure will return for Saturday and Sunday and light, generally northeast flow will be favored across the area for the weekend. A warm front will cross the lake for Monday and southeast flow will return to the lake. Southerly flow will continue into Tuesday and increase ahead of a low pressure system that will move through the Northwest Great Lakes for the middle of the week. No marine headlines are expected at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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