Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 10:40 PM   Moonset 6:40 AM

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LEZ145 Vermilion To Avon Point Oh-avon Point To Willowick Oh- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 930 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
This afternoon - East winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 262337 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 737 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift north through the area Saturday morning as high pressure builds just off of the East Coast. A cold front will then push east across the area Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure remains off of the East Coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Broken high clouds are beginning to arrive from the west ahead of an approaching warm front poised to lift north across the area late tonight into Saturday. For much of the forecast period through Saturday night, confidence remains low on rain coverage and intensity apart from late tonight into Saturday morning along and east of the I-77 corridor. Anticipate at least a several-hour period of rain with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder out east during this timeframe, although instability will largely remain limited within the lightning initiation zone.

As the warm front lifts north across the area late tonight into Saturday morning, a much more humid air mass will follow as surface dew points rise into the upper 50s to perhaps lower 60s with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s. This humid air mass is anticipated to remain through the near term period.

As mentioned above, apart from the precipitation associated with the isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front, it remains difficult to pinpoint rain and thunderstorm coverage, especially Saturday afternoon and evening as multiple weak shortwave impulses move along the western periphery of the larger-scale upper-level ridge. At this time, isolated to low-end scattered rain/thunderstorm coverage appears reasonable for Saturday afternoon and evening, given the humid air mass in place coupled with waves of mid-level energy traversing the western periphery of the upper-level ridge. If storms are able to develop Saturday afternoon and evening, there could be an increased potential for a strong storm or two, especially across NW PA where the instability/shear overlap is more favorable.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Upper level ridging increases slightly on Sunday but there should be a flow of low level moisture into the region. Above average temperatures are expected Sunday into Monday ahead of a cold front that wont cross the region until late Monday night. The warm temperatures will assist with getting a lake breeze boundary to develop by Sunday afternoon. This boundary may generate enough low level convergence to interact with the increased low level moisture and heat to allow for the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. For Monday it appears we will need to wait until the cold front gets closer to the region. By late evening into the overnight hours there should be a period of showers and thunderstorms. However the region may become unstable enough Monday afternoon to allow for some scattered development of thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be well above average through the short term period. A few locations may approach record levels Sunday afternoon across NW OH, spreading to the central and eastern portions of northern OH on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front moves across the region on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms gradually ending from west to east through the afternoon. There should then be a brief dry period Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A weakening cold front then sags into the region on Wednesday with a few thunderstorms possible. This boundary looks like it stalls over southern Ohio Wednesday night into Thursday. It then becomes the path for the next area of low pressure to follow. This low may move across the region with showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages through the long term.

AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
Warm front comes through tonight with mainly VFR showers and lowering ceilings to 3.5-5kft and southeasterly winds on the increase with gusts in the 20-30kt range. This is due to a low pressure system tracking southwest to northeast into the northern Great Lakes region. Ceilings may drop to MVFR for a few hours after 12Z, but there is lower confidence in this right now.
Winds will continue through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. Non-VFR is most likely in showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday with a cold front.

MARINE
Low pressure moves into the upper Great Lakes tonight as high pressure departs to the east. This will allow the pressure gradient to increase as a warm front approaches. Expect to see southeast winds increase overnight with the strongest winds from 2 AM through 2 PM. Wind speeds will be very close to 20 knots but since it will be an offshore flow we will hold off on a small craft advisory.
Winds are then expected to decrease Saturday evening but will shift more to the southwest by Sunday. It appears that there is a good chance for a lake breeze to develop from Cleveland to Ripley for Sunday afternoon with some thunder possible along it. So expect to see onshore winds increase in this area late Sunday morning into the afternoon.

The next area of low pressure should move into the upper Great Lakes Monday afternoon into Monday night with a cold front approaching from the west. Expect to see southwest winds increase to 10 to 20 knots ahead of the front. The front should cross the lake late Monday night into Tuesday with winds shifting to the west.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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