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LEZ145 Expires:202312040915;;860511 Fzus51 Kcle 040227 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 927 pm est Sun dec 3 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez144-145-040915- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- 927 pm est Sun dec 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Overnight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A slight chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Rain showers likely in the morning, then rain and snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 45 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 040610 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 110 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system will continue to move east across Ohio this afternoon, leaving a surface trough in its wake for tonight into Monday. A ridge will briefly push north Monday night into the start of Tuesday before another system impacts the region Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will return late Wednesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9:15 PM EST Update...

Most of the near-term forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. Only change was to increase POP's slightly across much of interior northern OH through daybreak Monday morning to account for isolated to scattered rain showers, mixed with wet snow at times, especially after midnight, ending gradually from west to east. These showers will be associated with low-level convergence/moist ascent along surface trough axes releasing weak potential instability in the lowest 1 km AGL. In turn, the surface trough axes will accompany shortwave disturbances embedded in cyclonic W'erly flow aloft.
Please see discussion below for further details.

Previous Discussion...

A low pressure system centered over northern Ohio will continue to move east this evening and will deepen. The upper level jet (300mb) oriented southwest to northeast has a max speed between 180-200 knots across the Ohio River Valley, leaving northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania in the left front quadrant. This jet lines up with a strong vort max at 500mb centered over the CWA, which combined are resulting in strong mesoscale forcing.
Scattered showers have begun to develop across the CWA, with even a rumble of thunder observed from Cleveland, OH to Erie, PA. There is a potential for thunderstorms to continue through this evening, although the best conditions look to remain southeast of the CWA. Early morning fog and cloud cover has resulted in weaker instability than the previous forecast with 100-250 J/kg, with slightly higher observed in areas where clouds broke in PA allowing temperatures to briefly climb into the 50s. There remains a Marginal Risk of severe weather for Crawford County PA to account for these marginal thermodynamics, steep mid- level lapse rates, and strong upper level support.
The primary concern remains gusty winds and hail, especially with freezing levels lingering near 2kft. A brief spin up cannot be ruled out, although confidence is much lower in that potential. The peak time for any potential severe weather will be between now and 01Z Monday.

By tonight, much of the area should experience dry conditions as the aforementioned low pressure shifts northeast of the area.
This will result in a surface trough lingering, which will result in an established west-northwest flow across the area and colder air to move in. 850mb temperatures will drop to -5C by Monday morning which should be enough to produce marginal lake induced instability and light showers. Initial showers overnight will primarily be rain before shifting to a rain/snow mix on Monday. Colder air will push south Monday night and should mark a transition to all snow for the snowbelt. With above freezing temperatures leading into this initial onset, not expecting any accumulating snow in this period.

Overnight lows will drop into the mid 30s tonight and Monday night with highs reaching into the upper 30s to low 40s on Monday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Large upper-level trough encompasses the Great Lakes region and surrounding areas on Tuesday with an embedded shortwave trough moving southeast across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weak low of around 1015 mb moves from northern Illinois Tuesday morning to southern Ohio by Tuesday evening. Light precipitation is expected near and northeast of the low pressure center track across, especially in Northwest and Central Ohio, though could spread into the rest of the forecast area. Temperatures in the low 30s Tuesday morning will rise to the mid 30s.
Precipitation is most likely to fall as all snow, though mild temperatures and low overall QPF should keep any snow accumulations to around a half inch or less.

Light areal snow transitions to light lake effect snow Tuesday night for parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Light lake effect snow continues into Wednesday, with minor snow accumulations of less than an inch. High pressure builds in on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with lake effect snow diminishing by Wednesday night. Slightly below normal temperatures expected Wednesday and Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Upper-level ridging builds in but a weak clipper system may clip the far eastern part of the forecast area, bringing light rain showers to parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania on Thursday.
High continues across the southeast CONUS Thursday night and then off the Atlantic coast by Friday. Dry weather is expected Thursday night and Friday with temperatures warming to the low 50s by Friday afternoon. Next chance for precipitation is expected mainly on Saturday as low pressure lifts out of the central Mississippi Valley. Rain areawide is likely with temperatures into the low to mid 50s.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
A surface trough remaining across the region with sufficient low level moisture will allow for MVFR ceilings to persist across the entire airspace through Tuesday morning. However, the nearest surface layer is fairly dry with clouds overhead and good mixing with westerly winds over 10 kts have all largely prevented widespread IFR and fog developing like previous days.
Some IFR is present over southern Lower Michigan and there could be an opportunity for some of this to advect into NW Ohio, but did not have enough confidence to put IFR ceilings into the TAF and have just some sct IFR clouds mentioned. Low level flow will become focused off Lake Erie through the period and lake effect precipitation with a mix of rain and then snow will impact some of the NE OH/NW PA terminals. However, the setup is rather marginal and any precipitation should be light and allow for conditions to just stay MVFR. Some wind gusts of 20 to 30 kt will be possible early with the trough in place but winds will subside as the trough weakens across the region.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periods of rain and/or snow Tuesday with lingering non-VFR in NE OH/NW PA into Wednesday.

MARINE
Low pressure over the eastern end of Lake Erie pulls away to the east with westerly winds rapidly increasing to 15 to 25 knots this evening, especially east of The Islands, with strong westerly winds continuing through early Monday morning. Winds become northwesterly, weakening to 15 knots, though the onshore flow keeps waves up to 3-4 feet. A small craft advisory is in effect east of The Islands through Monday evening.

High pressure builds in Monday night through Tuesday, with winds weakening to less than 10 knots. Winds become northerly late Tuesday night through Wednesday with speeds of around 15 knots, which could be just enough for waves around 3-4 feet in the central basin of Lake Erie on Wednesday. High pressure ridge builds across the lake Wednesday night, with southwest winds developing Thursday, with a good chance for speeds of around 20 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ144- 145.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ146>149.

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