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LMZ744 Gary To Burns Harbor In-burns Harbor To Michigan City In- 225 Pm Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm cst this evening through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft late.
Wednesday..Northwest winds around 10 kt becoming west in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ700
No data

FXUS63 KLOT 112011 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 211 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

SHORT TERM
Issued at 211 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Through Tuesday night...

Key Messages:

* Dry cold front Tuesday creating breezy west-northwest winds in its wake

The earlier cloud cover has eroded leaving the area under sunny skies; however, temperatures continue to reside in the low to mid-30s with little improvement expected through sunset. While clear skies will remain through tonight, a stout low pressure center over the Hudson Bay will continue to advance eastward across Ontario and Quebec which will force a cold front through the Upper Midwest. As this occurs the pressure gradient is expected to tighten over the Great Lakes which will increase winds overnight into Tuesday morning. The resultant mechanical mixing should aid in reducing the effects of radiational cooling overnight and hold low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s with areas near the lake expected to remain in the lower 30s.

As we head into Tuesday, the aforementioned cold front is expected to move through the northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana with little fan fair except for turning winds west-northwesterly in its wake. Though winds will remain breezy as cold advection allows us to mix into 15 to 20 mph gusts Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, the mostly clear skies should rebound temperatures into the mid to upper 30s by Tuesday afternoon.

Gusts are expected to ease Tuesday evening which will set the stage for a rather chilly night; however, increasing mid-level cloud cover does look to limit the cooling to some degree. Therefore, low temperatures Tuesday night should remain in the low to mid-20s but some teens could be possibly if cloud cover is thinner than forecast.

Yack

LONG TERM
Issued at 211 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Wednesday through Monday...

Key Messages:

* Above normal temperatures to close out the week into the weekend

* Chance (20 to 30 percent) for rain Friday night into Saturday

High pressure will continue to be the dominant weather feature overhead through the week which will keep sunny and dry conditions on tap. In fact, an upper-level ridge is expected to amplify over the Great Lakes on Thursday which is expected to allow southwesterly flow to materialize at the surface. The resultant warm advection will allow temperatures to gradually warm into the mid to upper 40s (possibly 50s) by Friday and linger through at least the first half of the upcoming weekend.

However, a couple of upper disturbances are forecast to push the high pressure east of our area on Friday and may bring us a chance for rain this weekend as well. While there is still a good deal of uncertainty with the exact evolution, track, and speed of these disturbances, the latest 12z guidance suite has started to come into better agreement on the northern and southern stream waves phasing over the Midwest. If this does occur as guidance suggests, then some rain could move through our area Friday night into Saturday. Given how guidance tends to struggle with phasing upper waves I have decided to maintain the 20 to 30 percent POPs offered by the NBM which seem reasonable at this time. Though we will need to keep an eye on forecast trends going forward before we can be more definitive.

Looking into next week, guidance suggests a return to a northwest flow pattern aloft which looks to support more seasonable temperatures into at least the early part of next week.

Yack

AVIATION
For the 18Z TAFs...

- Secondary stratus deck eroding over the next couple of hours, no significant impacts.

- Frontal boundary slides through Tuesday morning, bringing an increase of westerly winds to the region.

Some lingering MVFR ceilings across northeast Illinois will continue to erode heading into the afternoon. This will bring about VFR conditions across the region, lasting throughout the period. Winds remain s-sw this afternoon into the overnight, before a dry frontal boundary slides through the area Tuesday morning. Westerly winds increase Tuesday morning behind fropa, with gusts in excess of 18kts.

Baker

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
Winthrop Harbor IL to Gary IN...9 PM Monday to 3 PM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory
Gary to Michigan City IN
9 PM Monday to 3 AM Wednesday.

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