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PZZ450 Pt St George To Cape Mendocino Out 10 Nm- 246 Pm Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm pst this evening...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from 10 pm pst this evening through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves S 8 ft at 9 seconds...and W 15 ft at 18 seconds. Chance of rain.
Wed..S winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves S 9 ft at 9 seconds...and W 14 ft at 17 seconds. Rain with possible showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves W 12 ft at 15 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves W 12 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 11 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 9 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves W 9 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 9 ft at 12 seconds.

PZZ400 246 Pm Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for northern california waters..Gusty southerlies continue across the waters today. A strong front will move across the waters overnight. Gusts will reach gale strength as the front progresses by through late Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms are possible with this front Wednesday through Thursday, and could also produce localized gale force gusts. Combined sea heights will reach hazardous levels in excess of 18 feet tonight into Wednesday morning as a long period swell builds in. Seas will subside slightly Wednesday night, but will quickly elevate again as a nearby system produces steep seas, of around 13-15 ft at 14 seconds.

FXUS66 KMFR 052319 AAA AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 319 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

SHORT TERM
After a brief lull in the wet and active pattern today, the wet and active pattern will return shortly with the next front moving into the northern coast at this time. This pause has allowed the Coquille at Coquille to subside below warning stage, and the flood warning has been cancelled. However, periods of heavy rain are expected once again near the coast tonight into Wednesday and the areal flood watch continues in this area into tomorrow afternoon. With very saturated soils the possibility of additional mud and debris slides is more than slight. As the front moves inland winds ahead of it will increase, and wind advisories are in place in the Shasta valley and portions east of the Cascades Wednesday. Advisory strength winds are also possible on the ridges across the region, but should not surface into populated areas. as the front moves inland snow level start at around 7000 feet or higher, dropping below 4000 feet late Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, and finally leveling off to around 3500 feet by Thursday morning. A winter weather advisory has been issued for the Cascades, and for western Siskiyou county and the Mt Shasta area above 3500 feet. some portions east of the Cascades will also see advisory snow amounts.


LONG TERM
Thursday morning through Monday...An upper level shortwave will impact the region Thursday morning...with colder air moving into the region lowering snow levels as precipitation remains in the area. Snow levels will hover around 3,500 feet with all of the short term models in good agreement regarding precipitation through much of the region. As far as snow amounts...there is between a 50% and 75% for much of the southern Cascades and the Siskiyou mountains of at least 4 inches of snow in a 6 hour period ending late Thursday morning
In fact
right around Crater Lake...there is about a 50% chance of 6 inches of snow in a 6 hour period from early to mid Thursday morning. We will continue to monitor the snow situation closely...as winter products may be needed.

Upper level northwest flow takes over late Thursday night into Friday morning
with snow levels dropping again
to between 2000 and 2500 feet
By this time
the bulk of the precipitation will have moved east...but a few showers will continue to linger. A dusting to a few inches of snow will be possible in and around 2,500 feet.

Upper level high pressure will nudge east Friday afternoon into the weekend as seen in both the meteograms and in the clusters. In fact...by Saturday afternoon all of the clusters indicate ridging over the west coast...adding to the confidence in a break in the weather. Uncertainty sneaks into the forecast during the second half of the weekend into early next week as there is quite a bit of disagreements in the upper level pattern.

AVIATION
06/00Z TAFs...A front will approach the region this evening, then pass over the area through the day Wednesday. Expect VFR to MVFR conditions, but IFR ceilings and visibilities will occur as precipitation rates increase to moderate to heavy amounts, especially along the coast and in the coastal mountains. Terrain obscuration will be a concern as well tonight, spreading from west to east with the precipitation. The Freezing level will be start around 7000 feet MSL this evening and begin dropping to about 4500 ft MSL by the end of the TAF period. -Schaaf

MARINE
Updated 100 PM Tuesday December 5, 2023...An active period of weather will continue this week over the waters. Gusty south to southwest winds will be common, along with southerly wind waves and long period west swell.

A very large and steep seas of around 15 to 19 ft will continue to build to a peak around 16 to 22 ft this evening into early Wednesday morning. During this same time period, wind speeds are forecast to weaken slightly. However, since seas are still expected to remain very large, this will result in a Hazardous Seas Warning across all the waters Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Additional disturbances Wednesday and Thursday will not be as strong, with southerly winds likely at advisory strength while high and steep seas slowly diminish. Winds and seas will reach a minimum late Friday, then another strong front is likely Saturday with gales possible.
-Schaaf/DW

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ029>031.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 PM PST Thursday for ORZ030-031.

Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ORZ021>024.

High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ021-022.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ024-027-028.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 PM PST Thursday above 3500 feet for CAZ080-082-083.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ081.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ084-085.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Crescent City
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Tue -- 06:11 AM PST     6.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:28 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:15 PM PST     3.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:10 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:21 PM PST     4.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:48 PM PST     1.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

Crescent City
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Tue -- 06:11 AM PST     6.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:28 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:13 PM PST     3.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:10 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:19 PM PST     4.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:47 PM PST     1.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

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