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PZZ450 Pt St George To Cape Mendocino Out 10 Nm- 857 Pm Pst Fri Dec 1 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 9 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of rain.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves nw 9 ft at 13 seconds. Rain likely.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves nw 12 ft at 15 seconds. Rain.
Sun..S winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves nw 11 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves W 11 ft at 13 seconds...and nw 3 ft at 18 seconds.
Mon..S winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves S 8 ft at 8 seconds...and nw 12 ft at 18 seconds.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves S 8 ft at 7 seconds...and nw 10 ft at 20 seconds.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves W 14 ft at 16 seconds.

PZZ400 857 Pm Pst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for northern california waters..Periods of breezy west winds will impact the coastal waters through the weekend. In addition, seas will remain elevated as a series of larger mid- to long- period northwesterly swells fill in and continue into early next week. A larger long period swell is expected to build in by midweek.

FXUS66 KMFR 020603 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1003 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

UPDATE
Updated the aviation section.

AVIATION
02/06Z TAFs...The main concern will be low level wind shear at Roseburg and Medford overnight into Saturday afternoon.
Winds at the coast, including North Bend will increase tonight, so we are not expecting low level wind shear. However, winds 2000 feet above ground level could get close to 40-45 kts.

Ceilings are currently mainly VFR as we are catching a relative break in the action. However, this won't last long with ceilings likely lowering to MVFR with increasing mountain obscuration overnight as another strong front approaches the area. Both ceilings and visibilities will lower, especially in the presence of moderate to heavy precipitation. Wet weather with these lower conditions is expected through Saturday evening.

Snow levels will hover around 4000 to 4500 feet, so rain looks to be the primary precipitation type for most terminals. Evidence suggest precipitation at Klamath Falls could start out around 15Z-16Z as snow for a brief period of time, then transition over to rain late in the morning as snow levels rise.
-Petrucelli/DW

MARINE
Updated 800 PM Friday December 1, 2023...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM PST Monday. Active weather will continue during the next week with a series of fronts moving across the waters. Most common will be southerly wind waves and long period west swell.

Winds and high and steep seas will increase with a front late tonight into Saturday, and again with a slower frontal passage on Sunday. Gale force gusts are possible north of Cape Arago early Saturday morning. Gales will also be possible north of Cape Blanco Monday through Monday night, with seas likely to be steep to very steep. Seas may become very high at 15 to 18 ft on Monday and again as they build to a peak of around 16 to 20 ft on Tuesday night.
Additional disturbances during the second half of the week will likely not be as strong. -DW

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 911 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023/

SHORT TERM...A relative break is occurring this evening into tonight with isolated to scattered showers, mainly concentrated over the mountains, especially over the Cascades and coastal mountains. Then, models remain on track showing a front arriving early Saturday morning and spread moderate to heavy precipitation inland. Heaviest precipitation will occur along the coast and across the mountains from the Cascades west in Oregon and over western Siskiyou in California. Snow levels are forecast at 4000 to 5000 feet tonight into Saturday morning, rising to 5500 to 6000 feet Saturday afternoon. Heavy snow is expected over the Cascades and eastern Douglas County foothills above 4500 feet through Saturday morning then above 5500 feet in the Cascades Saturday afternoon. Moderate to locally heavy snow is also expected into northern Klamath County Saturday morning. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories remain in effect for these areas (please see the WSWMFR for details). Elsewhere, east of the Cascades, over the Siskiyou Mountains and over higher mountains in Northern California, lighter snow is expected. With this front, gusty winds are also likely across much of the area on Saturday. The strongest winds are forecast east of the Cascades as a mid level 700 mb jet of 50 to 65 kt moves across the area.
These winds are expected to be strongest across portions of Lake County with gusts of 45 to 55 mph. A wind advisory (NPWMFR)
remains in place for these conditions.

Saturday evening into Sunday, a warm but very moist frontal system arrives bringing moderate to heavy rain and rising snow levels. Models continue to show snow levels rising from 5500-6000 feet to 6500-7500 feet by Sunday morning, then remain high through Sunday. Heavy precipitation of 2 to 3.5 inches is likely along the coast and over the coastal mountains Saturday evening through Sunday with 1 to 2.5 inches inland into the Umpqua, Southern Oregon Cascades, southwest Josephine County and western Siskiyou County. The active pattern continues with additional fronts through mid week bringing continued precipitation and high snow levels (6000 to 9000 feet). Then a cooler but active pattern is forecast for late in the week.

The extended period of moderate to heavy precipitation will bring river rises. The Coquille River, especially the south fork of the Coquille near Myrtle Point, will see rises with the river forecast to near bankful early next week. Other rivers and small streams will see significant rises as well, especially along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin.

For further details on these frontal systems, please see the discussions below.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 402 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023/

SYNOPSIS...A parade of systems will be moving through the Pacific Northwest this weekend into next week. This will lead to multiple days of precipitation with small breaks (if any) in between. Snow levels will start around 4000 feet today and rise to 6000 feet by Saturday night and 9000 by Tuesday.

KEY POINTS: *Moderate to heavy snow is expected again tonight between 4AM and 4PM Saturday.
*Moderate to heavy rain is expected to continue through the next several days.
*Gusty winds are expected along and east of the Cascades, and possibly at the coast Saturday and Sunday.
*Ponding of water and rapid rises of streams and creeks are possible, but river flooding is not expected.
*High Surf with 15 to 20 breaking waves are expected through Tuesday.
*There is a limited risk for sneaker waves through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM
Tonight 12/1 through Saturday night 12/2
This morning Roxy Ann had snow! Although snow levels were above 3,500 feet, this shows that the precipitation was heavy enough this morning to push down the cold air. The Medford airport received 0.25" this morning and Phoenix saw 0.50". A quick view of rainfall totals at the coast show that the 24-hour total through 1 PM has reached 0.50"-1.00", and Brookings, Agness, and North Bend are near or have surpassed the 1" mark.

Another round of heavy snow will be found between Saturday 4 AM to 4 PM Saturday. Through this timeframe, locations along the Cascades, including Crater Lake, have a 70-100% probability to see 1" per hour snowfall rates. Road surfaces are forecast near the Cascades and east to fall below freezing tonight. With the current snowfall and anticipated snowfall tonight, this will create an extra hazard for slick spots on the road as snow and ice will stick to the surfaces.

Currently, wind gusts near Summer Lake of 40-60 mph have been reported, helping support the current Wind Advisory. Please keep in mind that gusty winds are possible where the heavy snow is falling and could lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility. Another area of concern is higher elevations for west side Saturday night into Sunday. A wind advisory is possible with guidance supporting stronger gusts near 50 mph, and that will be analyzed further.

The heavy rainfall concern continues through the weekend.
Forecasted PWATs for a 3-hour time range between 4 PM-10 PM Saturday are forecast to near 0.75" for Brookings, and with a forecast nearing 1 inch over that 6 hour timeframe, heavy rain is favored in the area for the evening. This heavy rainfall will continue for the coast into the overnight hours with another burst late Sunday morning into the afternoon.

The heavy cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures similar to last night and slightly warmer than normal. Afternoon temperatures will also be near normal with highs ranging from the low 60s at the coast to 30s/low 40s east of the Cascades. -Hermansen

LONG TERM
Sunday 12/3 through Friday 12/8
The Longer term portion of the forecast will continue the parade of systems moving through the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Periods of moderate rain are expected through Sunday evening, especially along the Cascades, Douglas County, and the coast and Coastal Range. Snow levels will be particularly high, between 7500 and 8500 feet with this atmospheric river.

A relative break is expected on Monday with less than a 5% chance for precipitation expected for Modoc County. Higher precipitation chances will exist everywhere else, with the highest chances (near 90%) for the Coast and the southern Oregon Cascades. These rain chances will spread out through Tuesday and Wednesday as additional systems parade through the area. Snow levels will rise to around 9000 feet. As a result, we will have to wait to see the potential impacts that this rain on snow can cause.

Will the snow pack we've established so far be enough to soak up the rain like a sponge, or will the rain cause the snow to melt and run off causing flooding? The best guess is somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, although confidence is relatively low at this point. The other concern we'll be monitoring over the extended forecast will be the potential for river rises. Currently the Northwest River Forecast center indicates a 5% chance of the south fork of the Coquille River at Myrtle point reaching action stage by Monday and maybe a 25% chance of reaching action stage by Thursday.
Chances remain at less than 5% for flooding at any river location; but the rapid river rises will need to be considered for the smaller streams and creeks.

The National Blend of Model suggests that snow levels may fall back down to around 4500 to 5000 feet by Wednesday and Thursday with additional systems moving through the area. With westerly flow, this is possible, but snowfall impacts will likely be negligible east of the Cascades. We will need to continue monitoring the extended forecast for additional impacts. -Schaaf

BEACH HAZARDS...Active weather continues through early next week. A series of fronts will move through the region during this time along with multiple moderate swell trains. An extended period of sustained wave action is expected. Breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft will coincide with higher than normal ocean levels, leading to an increased risk of beach erosion. Additionally, there is a minor risk of sneaker waves as these swell trains build into the waters. Confidence is low, however, considering wind wave interference is likely to limit, but not completely negate the sneaker threat. If venturing to area beaches during this time, use caution when visiting and remember to never turn your back on the ocean! /BR-y/Hermansen

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM PST Saturday through late Monday night for ORZ021-022.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Saturday above 4000 feet for ORZ025.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Saturday above 5500 feet for ORZ027-028.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday above 4000 feet for ORZ029.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Saturday above 4500 feet for ORZ030.

Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for ORZ031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Crescent City
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Fri -- 02:58 AM PST     5.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:24 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:42 AM PST     4.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:32 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:16 PM PST     6.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:38 PM PST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:43 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

Trinidad Harbor
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Fri -- 02:59 AM PST     5.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:22 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:43 AM PST     3.94 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:30 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:17 PM PST     6.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:39 PM PST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:45 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Trinidad Harbor, California, Tide feet

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