Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Colchester, CT

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
For the pre-dawn hours, any light precip over the eastern zones will be shifting east out of the area by daybreak. Precip type varies across the forecast area with mainly rain for coastal areas, but a mix of sleet and snow elsewhere as an elevated warm nose shifts through.

Weak ridging occurs over the region through the near term period as we'll be between low pressure shifting east through New England and another storm system off to the west. The ridge should be strong enough to hold off any precip attempting to reach us by the end of tonight. Breezy to start the day, then the winds diminish this afternoon into tonight. Temperatures will be above normal today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
A warm front approaches from the SW through the day Monday in association with a broad area of low pressure stretching from the upper MS Valley to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. A weak area of low pressure center develops along this warm front and passes through the forecast area this evening. Moisture out ahead of the warm front heads our way with rain chances starting late in the morning, but not becoming likely in most spots until Monday afternoon. The rain continues into Monday evening with the weak low center passing through. The rain should be primarily on the light to moderate side with a total of quarter to half inch of accumulation. Temperatures remain above normal on Monday in spite of the rain and clouds with highs ranging from the mid 40s inland to around 50 for coastal areas. Rainfall lingering during the evening hours to the north and east of the city ends by midnight with the weak low shifting ENE. The warm front however remains over part of the forecast area, but will be in a weakened state - still can't rule out a slight chance of light rain or drizzle overnight. Winds will be light with low dewpoint depressions, so patchy/areas of fog is anticipated.

The warm front or trough remains over or nearby through the day Tuesday. Low level moisture remains locked in below 5-6kft with dry conditions aloft. Weak lower level omega may be enough to produce light rain or drizzle in spots at any time during the day, but most of the day should be rain-free. Cloudy, with highs 50-55 in most areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Strengthening upper level trough, baroclinic zone, and surface low pressure approaching with its associated cold front are the weather features for the local region Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

This is setting up a widespread moderate to locally heavy rain event, especially for eastern sections of the region. This is where models have their combination of generally where the low level jet will be and highest precipitable waters. Upper level has a focus of the forecast region being in the right rear quadrant for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Coastal areas could even have an embedded thunderstorm for Wednesday. This could result in some strong winds being brought down to the surface, perhaps some wind gusts briefly of near 40 to 50 mph. The eastern areas seen having a higher chance of getting the heavy rain and gusty winds appears to be Southern CT and Long Island. However, subsequent model runs will have to be monitored for any shifts westward with low pressure, low level jet and heavy rain axis.

Strong cold air advection follows Wednesday night as the low travels northeast and deepens more rapidly. Would expect ongoing rain to become more showers and intermittent in period. However, with wet bulb cooling as drier air tries to work into the region, along with strong cold air advection, precipitation ends as snow showers Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

Temperatures generally above normal Tuesday night and Wednesday and then near normal Wednesday night. Below normal temperatures for Thursday through Friday night before airmass moderates going into next weekend.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A low passes to the north through the TAF period, eventually getting into the Canadian Maritimes.

Mainly VFR for the TAF period. A few light snow showers are possible for CT terminals for the next few hours with accompanying MVFR conditions. All other TAF sites appear too dry for precip to occur.

Winds have begun to pick up above 10 kts from the SW with gusts becoming more consistent at some TAF sites. Wind gusts between 18-25 kt expected through much of today from a SW direction. Sustained winds forecast to be 10-15 kts with a more westerly direction.
Westerly winds quickly ramp down below 10 kts and lose their gusts this evening. Many TAF sites become light with wind speeds and variable wind direction late tonight into early Monday morning.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible to adjust end time of gusts.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: MVFR to IFR, at times, in rain, particularly in the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower during the day. Increasing chance of rain late Tue into Tue night. IFR or lower possible at night.

Wednesday: MVFR to IFR. Possible sub-IFR at times. Rain day into early evening with rain and snow showers for the rest of the night.
Rain may become heavy at times. SW gusts 15-20 kt during day. W-NW gusts 15-20 kt at night. Potentially higher gusts possible Wednesday into Wednesday night up to near 35 to 40 kt. Possible LLWS.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible early with chance of snow showers early in the day east of NYC terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR with gusty W to NW winds 20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA continues on the non-ocean waters through noon today. On the ocean, extended the advisory through midnight tonight, except east of Moriches Inlet where it was extended through midnight with lingering elevated seas. There could be some gale force gusts on the ocean this morning, but advisory conditions should prevail. Sub- advisory conditions for Monday, and this could be the case through Tuesday. Waves may however reach 5 ft on the ocean Monday night into early Tuesday with the help of a weak low pressure center shifting through.

Tuesday night, SCA conditions forecast on ocean, developing mainly late. Otherwise, sub-SCA for the rest of the waters Tuesday night.
Gales possible on eastern non-ocean waters and ocean waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. Otherwise, SCA conditions forecast for all waters Wednesday through Thursday. SCA conditions remain likely on the ocean for Thursday night but for non-ocean waters, sub- SCA conditions are forecast.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic issues expected through Tuesday. Heavy rain possible at times Tuesday night through Wednesday with the potential for flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas. Would expect mostly minor flooding but there is a marginal to slight chance for flash flooding, which would be more localized. Extra uncertainty here on rainfall amounts and where heavy rain axis sets up. Model potential for PWATs of near 1.3 to 1.5 inches Wednesday, which would be above the 90th percentile and around to above the max for OKX sounding climatology for December 11th.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ353-355.