Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Colchester, CT
May 11, 2024 5:54 PM EDT (21:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:31 AM Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 7:59 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.
Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 321 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal system approaches from the west tonight and then passes south and east of the area on Sunday. High pressure returns Sunday night. A warm front passes north of the area Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure may impact the area for the middle of the week
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 111932 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 332 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
A frontal system approaches from the west tonight and then passes south and east of the area on Sunday. High pressure returns Sunday night. A warm front passes north of the area Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure may impact the area for the middle of the week, with another frontal system possible by next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
A large upper level trough remains over Eastern North America.
Within this trough, a middle level ridge will push east of the area tonight, followed by a shortwave trough. At the surface, high pressure continues to ridge down from northern New England.
The approaching shortwave will bring an increase in cloud cover this evening into tonight. An associated frontal system will slowly approach with lift increasing west of the NYC metro between around 03 and 06z. Showers will accompany the increased lift, especially across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley, slowly making their way towards the NYC metro around day break.
Mainly light showers are expected with a small chance for a brief occurrence of moderate intensity.
A chilly night is in store despite the increasing cloud cover.
Lows look to fall into the middle and upper 40s for most spots and around 50 degrees in the NYC metro. These low temperatures range from 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The aforementioned shortwave becomes a broad closed low overhead early Sunday morning. There will be two separate areas of middle level energy within the low, one to our northeast and then another to our south and west. The models are also in good agreement with the cutoff low quickly shifting to our east around midday. The remaining energy to our south and west will shift to a less favorable position for supporting the shower activity. The upper trough and cutoff low will then slowly shift to a position near or just off the New England coast Sunday evening.
Showers, mainly on the light side, will continue from around the NYC metro/Hudson River corridor in the morning. The showers will try to shift eastward in the morning, but will likely encounter subsidence behind the lead energy and slowly dissipate as they move over southern CT and western/central Long Island.
The showers will continue to dissipate early in the afternoon with dry conditions likely returning around 19z. Total rainfall amounts range from one to two tenths west of the NYC metro, a few hundredths to a tenth in the NYC metro, and possibly a trace to see a few hundredths east of the Hudson and NYC metro.
Locations on the east end and southeast CT may remain completely dry. Lingering middle level moisture likely leads to mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the daytime hours.
The other story for Sunday will be unseasonably cool temperatures with highs only reaching the middle and upper 50s.
These highs are 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Heights will rise Sunday night as the upper trough continues departing to the east. Surface high pressure will be in place leading to dry conditions. Clouds should slowly diminish through the night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies by early Monday morning. Another chilly night is expected with lows in the 40s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dry wx is expected on Mon with high pres along the coast. Sly flow develops during the day with a warm front to the N and sea breeze impacts. This will modify temps for most of the area E of the Hudson River. With the boundary to the N and some energy embedded in the flow aloft, a few shwrs are possible Mon ngt and Tue. Greater instability could yield some tstms N and W of NYC Tue aftn and eve, then low pres approaches from the SW and rain, with a few embedded tstms, overspreads the area Tue ngt into Wed. Despite the cool ocean, the warm airmass yields highs in the 60s and 70s on Tue per the NBM. Mixing down the GFS from h85 would produce mid 70s without adding in the seasonal solar adjustment which would bring the numbers to around 80. Stuck with the NBM for now, but some higher readings possible in NJ and up the wrn portion of the Hudson Valley. Clouds and residual rain keep temps lower on Wed, then pcpn chances subside Wed ngt into Thu. Temps rebound on Thu with more sunshine despite nely flow. Another frontal sys is possible late Fri into Sat. The timing and track are a little uncertain, with the ECMWF slower than the GFS. As a result, the blended approach using the NBM was used.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Weak high pressure building in from New England this afternoon will give way to an approaching weak frontal system tonight into early Sunday.
BKN VFR cigs inland should expand toward the NYC metros and KISP late today into this evening. VFR expected much of tonight, then light showers with MVFR cond should arrive at KSWF after 08Z, to KHPN and the NYC metro 09Z-10Z, and KBDR/KISP by 12Z. Can't rule out brief IFR cigs at KSWF during mid to late morning. KGON should remain VFR.
SE-S flow either side of 10 kt (with the higher speeds closer to the coast) should diminish to under 10 kt tonight, and may go light/vrb at outlying terminals. SE flow under 10 kt expected daytime Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers.
S winds 15kt coastal terminals.
Tuesday night: MVFR likely in showers and possible tstms.
S winds 10-15kt coastal terminals.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower still likely in showers and t-storms.
SE winds 10-15G20kt, becoming NE.
Wednesday night: VFR. N winds 10-15G20kt.
Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Seas east of Moriches Inlet are likely to end up around 4 ft this evening and may occasionally reach 5 ft. Not anticipating the need for an SCA. Conditions will remain below SCA levels through Tuesday night with a weak pressure gradient over the waters. There could be period of marginal 5 ft seas on the ocean Mon and Tue. A SCA will be needed on the ocean Wed with low pressure, and possible elsewhere. SCA cond may linger through Thu, subsiding by Fri.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Only localized minor coastal flooding is expected for the most vulnerable locations along the south shore back bays of Nassau County with high tide tonight. A coastal flood statement remain in effect. Otherwise, no additional coastal flooding is anticipated as astronomical tide levels continue subsiding into early next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 332 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
A frontal system approaches from the west tonight and then passes south and east of the area on Sunday. High pressure returns Sunday night. A warm front passes north of the area Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure may impact the area for the middle of the week, with another frontal system possible by next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
A large upper level trough remains over Eastern North America.
Within this trough, a middle level ridge will push east of the area tonight, followed by a shortwave trough. At the surface, high pressure continues to ridge down from northern New England.
The approaching shortwave will bring an increase in cloud cover this evening into tonight. An associated frontal system will slowly approach with lift increasing west of the NYC metro between around 03 and 06z. Showers will accompany the increased lift, especially across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley, slowly making their way towards the NYC metro around day break.
Mainly light showers are expected with a small chance for a brief occurrence of moderate intensity.
A chilly night is in store despite the increasing cloud cover.
Lows look to fall into the middle and upper 40s for most spots and around 50 degrees in the NYC metro. These low temperatures range from 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The aforementioned shortwave becomes a broad closed low overhead early Sunday morning. There will be two separate areas of middle level energy within the low, one to our northeast and then another to our south and west. The models are also in good agreement with the cutoff low quickly shifting to our east around midday. The remaining energy to our south and west will shift to a less favorable position for supporting the shower activity. The upper trough and cutoff low will then slowly shift to a position near or just off the New England coast Sunday evening.
Showers, mainly on the light side, will continue from around the NYC metro/Hudson River corridor in the morning. The showers will try to shift eastward in the morning, but will likely encounter subsidence behind the lead energy and slowly dissipate as they move over southern CT and western/central Long Island.
The showers will continue to dissipate early in the afternoon with dry conditions likely returning around 19z. Total rainfall amounts range from one to two tenths west of the NYC metro, a few hundredths to a tenth in the NYC metro, and possibly a trace to see a few hundredths east of the Hudson and NYC metro.
Locations on the east end and southeast CT may remain completely dry. Lingering middle level moisture likely leads to mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the daytime hours.
The other story for Sunday will be unseasonably cool temperatures with highs only reaching the middle and upper 50s.
These highs are 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Heights will rise Sunday night as the upper trough continues departing to the east. Surface high pressure will be in place leading to dry conditions. Clouds should slowly diminish through the night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies by early Monday morning. Another chilly night is expected with lows in the 40s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dry wx is expected on Mon with high pres along the coast. Sly flow develops during the day with a warm front to the N and sea breeze impacts. This will modify temps for most of the area E of the Hudson River. With the boundary to the N and some energy embedded in the flow aloft, a few shwrs are possible Mon ngt and Tue. Greater instability could yield some tstms N and W of NYC Tue aftn and eve, then low pres approaches from the SW and rain, with a few embedded tstms, overspreads the area Tue ngt into Wed. Despite the cool ocean, the warm airmass yields highs in the 60s and 70s on Tue per the NBM. Mixing down the GFS from h85 would produce mid 70s without adding in the seasonal solar adjustment which would bring the numbers to around 80. Stuck with the NBM for now, but some higher readings possible in NJ and up the wrn portion of the Hudson Valley. Clouds and residual rain keep temps lower on Wed, then pcpn chances subside Wed ngt into Thu. Temps rebound on Thu with more sunshine despite nely flow. Another frontal sys is possible late Fri into Sat. The timing and track are a little uncertain, with the ECMWF slower than the GFS. As a result, the blended approach using the NBM was used.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Weak high pressure building in from New England this afternoon will give way to an approaching weak frontal system tonight into early Sunday.
BKN VFR cigs inland should expand toward the NYC metros and KISP late today into this evening. VFR expected much of tonight, then light showers with MVFR cond should arrive at KSWF after 08Z, to KHPN and the NYC metro 09Z-10Z, and KBDR/KISP by 12Z. Can't rule out brief IFR cigs at KSWF during mid to late morning. KGON should remain VFR.
SE-S flow either side of 10 kt (with the higher speeds closer to the coast) should diminish to under 10 kt tonight, and may go light/vrb at outlying terminals. SE flow under 10 kt expected daytime Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers.
S winds 15kt coastal terminals.
Tuesday night: MVFR likely in showers and possible tstms.
S winds 10-15kt coastal terminals.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower still likely in showers and t-storms.
SE winds 10-15G20kt, becoming NE.
Wednesday night: VFR. N winds 10-15G20kt.
Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Seas east of Moriches Inlet are likely to end up around 4 ft this evening and may occasionally reach 5 ft. Not anticipating the need for an SCA. Conditions will remain below SCA levels through Tuesday night with a weak pressure gradient over the waters. There could be period of marginal 5 ft seas on the ocean Mon and Tue. A SCA will be needed on the ocean Wed with low pressure, and possible elsewhere. SCA cond may linger through Thu, subsiding by Fri.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Only localized minor coastal flooding is expected for the most vulnerable locations along the south shore back bays of Nassau County with high tide tonight. A coastal flood statement remain in effect. Otherwise, no additional coastal flooding is anticipated as astronomical tide levels continue subsiding into early next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NLHC3 | 16 mi | 55 min | 52°F | 62°F | 29.84 | |||
| LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather | 19 mi | 80 min | SSE 8.9G | 50°F | ||||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 34 mi | 55 min | SSE 6G | 56°F | 56°F | 29.84 | ||
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 37 mi | 55 min | 50°F | 50°F | 29.80 | |||
| PDVR1 | 49 mi | 55 min | ENE 8.9G | 55°F | 29.83 | 39°F | ||
| QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI | 49 mi | 55 min | ENE 9.9G | 54°F | 29.85 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSNC CHESTER,CT | 13 sm | 19 min | SSE 06 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 55°F | 41°F | 58% | 29.85 | |
| KIJD WINDHAM,CT | 18 sm | 62 min | E 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 57°F | 37°F | 47% | 29.83 | |
| KGON GROTONNEW LONDON,CT | 19 sm | 58 min | SSE 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 54°F | 43°F | 67% | 29.84 | |
| KHFD HARTFORDBRAINARD,CT | 23 sm | 61 min | SSE 08 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 61°F | 43°F | 51% | 29.80 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Tylerville, Connecticut River, Connecticut, Tide feet
The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:13 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:24 AM EDT -3.50 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:33 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:47 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:34 AM EDT 2.73 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:54 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:47 PM EDT -2.73 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:53 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT 2.66 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:13 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:24 AM EDT -3.50 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:33 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:47 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:34 AM EDT 2.73 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:54 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:47 PM EDT -2.73 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:53 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT 2.66 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| -1.2 |
| 4 am |
| -2.6 |
| 5 am |
| -3.4 |
| 6 am |
| -3.3 |
| 7 am |
| -2.5 |
| 8 am |
| -1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.8 |
| 11 am |
| 2.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 5 pm |
| -2.5 |
| 6 pm |
| -2.7 |
| 7 pm |
| -2.2 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.4 |
Boston, MA,
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