Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakewood, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 040528 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 128 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will pass through the eastern Great Lakes region tonight. High pressure will rebuild over the region on Saturday and persist through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Added slight chance PoPs for another hour or two, mainly to account for lingering showers in Wood and Hancock counties.

Original Discussion . A weak mid-level impulse is moving from north to south over the eastern Great Lakes region this afternoon and will push a very weak cold front through the area overnight. This front is expected to generate no precipitation as the low-levels remain fairly dry and the front is too weak to break the cap, as noted by the lack of cumulus clouds over the forecast area. Therefore, will maintain a dry forecast for this afternoon through tonight. Some better cloud development is possible overnight and could keep low temperatures a bit warmer than last night in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

High pressure builds back into the region as the upper ridge resurges back into the area for the Independence Day holiday. Temperatures will be very slightly cooler on Saturday, but perhaps only by a degree or two. Diurnal cumulus is expected to develop during the afternoon, but with north to northeast flow, a significant lake shadow is expected, so the near-lake counties may remain mostly clear on Saturday. Lows on Saturday night will remain fairly warm with the lower bound depending on how well the area mixes during the day on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. The short term begins Sunday with an upper ridge continuing to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Quiet weather is expected throughout the short term period with above average temperatures expected. Highs on Sunday will range from the lower 90s to perhaps mid 90s with heat indices expected to mostly mirror air temperatures as dew points will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Slightly warmer and more humid weather is expected on Monday with more widespread mid 90s possible.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The long term begins Tuesday and signals the end of mostly quiet weather as we look to return to our typical diurnally-driven afternoon thunderstorm pattern. Upper ridging will begin to break down on Tuesday, giving way to more zonal flow and increased moisture advection across the region. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon, with activity diminishing by the evening hours. Higher humidity will accompany this moisture advection, leading to heat indices in the upper 90s in some places, especially across NW OH. Increased moisture returns remain in place on Wednesday with a subtle shortwave trough expected to move east across the area. This upper level forcing will support a higher chance for scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures on Wednesday appear to be similar to Tuesday.

By Thursday, the heat and humidity begin to creep up ever so slightly that heat headlines may become a consideration in future updates. Heat indices will flirt around 100 degrees for a couple of hours in the afternoon on Thursday. Models are also starting to come into agreement that a surface low will develop in the vicinity of the Carolinas on Wednesday and Thursday, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Friday, however it is unclear of the evolution of this system and how it would affect the weather our area. Recent model runs have also shown a weak surface trough/cold front moving east across the area on Friday. Have stayed with slight-chance PoPs on Thursday, increasing to chance by Friday as upper support becomes apparent.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/. VFR conditions are expected during the TAF period as an upper level ridge brings hot and dry conditions across the area. Hi- Res model guidance is hinting at ceilings lowering to MVFR conditions between 7Z and 9Z at YNG with possible visibility reduction from localized fog. However, confidence is very low in this occurring so opted to keep it out of TAF. Winds will be light and variable to start the period and increase to 5 to 10 knots out of the northeast as temperatures increase in the afternoon. They are expected to calm again towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible within isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday and scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

MARINE. Quiet conditions are expected across Lake Erie through the weekend and into early next week as upper level ridging and surface high pressure persist over the Great Lakes region. Winds will mostly be 10 knots or less over the lake though gusts of 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon hours cannot be ruled out. Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity on Tuesday will be confined over land. No headlines are expected through the period.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Saunders/Sefcovic SHORT TERM . Kahn LONG TERM . Kahn AVIATION . Campbell MARINE . Kahn

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	7 mi	44 min	SSW 1.9 G 2.9	73°F	71°F		1015.6 hPa	68°F
45164	16 mi	32 min			75°F	1 ft
LORO1	23 mi	62 min	SW 2.9 G 2.9	78°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	31 mi	44 min	WSW 1.9 G 2.9	74°F	76°F		1015.2 hPa	72°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	41 mi	47 min	Calm	70°F			1015 hPa	69°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	42 mi	32 min	WSW 2.9 G 2.9	76°F			1014.6 hPa (+0.7)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	48 mi	62 min	W 5.1 G 6	94°F

Wind History for Cleveland, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH	4 mi	39 min	WSW 4	10.00 mi	Fair	76°F	70°F	82%	1014.7 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH	8 mi	41 min	WSW 3	10.00 mi	Fair	71°F	66°F	87%	1015.6 hPa
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH	16 mi	57 min	N 0	5.00 mi	Fog/Mist	68°F	66°F	96%	1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKL

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (2,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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