Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakewood, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 091807 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 107 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will strengthen as it tracks northeast through the Central Great Lakes today, pulling a cold front east across the area early Tuesday. A stronger cold front will sweep east across the area on Wednesday. High pressure will build east across the region on Thursday, reaching the East Coast on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Rain continues to be overspread across the entire forecast area and will continue through the day today. Coverage of precipitation will decrease from west to east, starting this evening. A decline in precipitation is already noticeable in radar observations over parts of western and northern Indiana. Trends in temperature forecasts through Tuesday are a tad lower, resulting in slightly quicker changeover to rain/snow and snow tonight into tomorrow and less of an issue with accumulating snow and warm surface temperatures on Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall through Tuesday night is only expected to around 1 to 2 inches in parts of the lake effect snow belt, with higher amounts towards northeast Erie County in Pennsylvania.

Original discussion . Temperatures are starting off mild today in the warm sector ahead of low pressure tracking out of the Plains. A blossoming area of precipitation can be seen upstream across Indiana and this will overspread the area today with strong moisture advection ahead of the low tracking into the Central Great Lakes. Rain is expected for all areas today with widespread precipitation of 0.30 -0.70 inch of rain. Higher rainfall amounts are expected across the southeastern counties as drier is wrapped into the system across NW Ohio and Lake Erie this afternoon and showers continue into this evening to the south and east. Have also included an isolated thunderstorm mention for the southeastern tier of counties as elevated instability peaks this evening with favorable upper level forcing ahead of the upper trough curling northeast into the Central Great Lakes. With a strong low level jet and strengthening gradient, wind gusts of 20-25 mph are possible but precipitation and a limited mixing depth will prevent these from getting any stronger.

The surface low will continue to deepen as it tracks northeast into Quebec tonight pulling a cold front east across the area late tonight into Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will occur early with falling temperatures through the day. The 00Z cycle seems a bit faster with the cold advection and trended highs on Tuesday down a couple degrees. A few flurries or light snow showers are possible on Tuesday, but better chances of snow showers will be focused downwind of Lake Erie heading into Tuesday evening with moisture from upstream Lake Michigan and Lake Erie providing a brief window of enhancement.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. A cold front will pass east of the area on Tuesday night and a surge of cold air will enter the eastern Great Lakes region. Trends for this period have been a touch warmer from previous model runs with 850 mb temperatures now in the -11 to -14 C range. Westerly flow with a decent fetch over the lake will allow for some lake effect snow to develop over portions of NE Ohio and NW PA. The depth of the boundary layer on Tuesday night into Wednesday isn't very impressive and the moisture and convection won't fully tap into the DGZ so will have just light snowfall accumulations for now. Mean flow backs around to the southwest and lake effect will be more favored for western NY, rather than the PA or OH Snow Belts and have PoPs lowering during the morning and early afternoon hours on Wednesday. A reinforcing arctic front will move through the area on Wednesday afternoon and reinvigorate the atmosphere, while veering flow to the west. While dry air will be quick to enter on Wednesday night behind this front, there remains a period where the thermodynamics are favorable for some heavier bursts of snow. Therefore, have likely PoPs with about an inch of snow over the northern portions of the Snow Belt. As previously said, dry air enters quickly on Wednesday night as high pressure builds in from the west. This will shut down any lake effect processes and will opt for a dry forecast for Thursday. Did not alter temperatures all that much from the previous forecast and will maintain temperatures into the teens on Wednesday night with dry arctic air and clearing skies. Warm air will begin advecting back into the region on Thursday night along with some cloud cover and have lows recovering into the 20s by then.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As high pressure exits the area to the northeast, a surge of gulf moisture and warm air advection will arrive from the south on Friday. Model solutions still remain varied on timing and location of the system, with the GFS hedging slightly warmer and faster than the Euro and Canadian and slightly more west. We remain confident that some type of precipitation will be possible across the area Friday night into Saturday, especially in the eastern half. Have adjusted high and low temperatures slightly on the warmer side, although a wide array of uncertainty in temperatures remain, especially on Friday and Saturday. Highs through the weekend will be in the mid to upper 40s with lows in the low to mid 30s. This slight increase in temperatures combined with warm air aloft, will result in less chances of any mixed precipitation, and higher chances of a cold rain. Behind this system, the GFS and EURO are hinting at some colder air, associated with a weak wave, moving across the region on Sunday, which could lead to some snow showers.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/. Rain currently at all TAF sites will continue through later this afternoon before decreasing in coverage from west to east this evening and tonight as the cold front moves across the area. All TAF sites will have a long period of MVFR conditions with a few hours of IFR conditions. Visibilities will mainly be MVFR with brief periods of VFR in light rain and brief periods of IFR and moderate to heavy rain. Worst conditions will mainly be caused by lowered cloud deck ceilings. Sustained south winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots will persist through the afternoon and evening hours today.

As mentioned before, the cold front makes it way east across the area tonight, with a slow improvement in conditions behind it though probably won't see sustained VFR conditions until right around or after 18Z Tuesday. Gusty winds behind the cold front will veer to out of the west, with the similar wind speeds as today.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible at KERI Tuesday night with scattered lake effect snow showers. Non-VFR returns at times with a cold front on Wednesday, lingering into Thursday at KERI. Non-VFR possible on Friday night with rain/snow and Saturday with all rain.

MARINE. Low pressure over the central United States will continue northeast towards the Great Lakes region today. Southerly flow over the region will continue ahead of the front with winds of 10 to 20 knots over the lake. As the low departs to the northeast into Canada, southwest flow will become dominate over the lake with a cold front and the strong pressure gradient will allow for winds of 15 to 25 knots over the basin. Waves will also be on the increase over the nearshore waters to 3 to 8 ft by Tuesday morning. This has prompted a new Small Craft Advisory to be issued for all of the Lake Erie nearshore zones. Winds and waves will diminish on Tuesday evening for the western half of the lake and have the advisory ending there first. While winds will diminish to below SCA criteria westerly flow will allow for high waves to persist over the eastern basin. A reinforcing cold front enters the eastern portion of the lake on Wednesday afternoon will be the trigger to finally change the wind direction and ultimately subside the higher waves over the basin. With that, have the small craft advisory for Cleveland and east through Wednesday night. High pressure builds in over the region on Thursday and will allow for more benign marine weather conditions. This area of high pressure will remain in place through Friday, although as the high continues east of the region, flow will become more southerly and offshore.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ146>149. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ142>145.

SYNOPSIS . KEC NEAR TERM . KEC/Saunders SHORT TERM . Sefcovic LONG TERM . Kahn AVIATION . Saunders MARINE . Sefcovic

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	7 mi	48 min	S 6 G 15	51°F	42°F		1000.1 hPa	46°F
LORO1	23 mi	48 min	S 19 G 23	51°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	31 mi	48 min	S 18 G 23	51°F	38°F		999.9 hPa	51°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	41 mi	93 min	SSW 5.1	52°F			1000 hPa	48°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	42 mi	78 min	SSW 12 G 18	52°F			998.6 hPa (-4.8)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	48 mi	108 min	S 9.9 G 17	51°F

Wind History for Cleveland, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH	4 mi	25 min	S 16	10.00 mi	Light Rain	52°F	46°F	83%	999.6 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH	8 mi	27 min	S 13	10.00 mi	Light Rain	51°F	48°F	89%	1000.8 hPa
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH	16 mi	33 min	SSW 13 G 19	10.00 mi	Light Rain	50°F	46°F	88%	1000 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKL

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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