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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakewood, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 230015 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 715 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes Saturday and Sunday. Low pressure will move northeast through the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday with mixed wintry precipitation.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Lake effect snow showers continue to develop off of Lake Erie with a general westerly flow feeding across Lake/Geauga/Ashtabula counties late this afternoon and this evening. Snowfall reports across these areas have ranged from 1-3 inches and another 1-2 inches is possible this evening before the flow becomes more northwesterly and bands begin to shift inland and decrease in intensity. This may result in snow expanding back to the west and have raised pops a little across much of North Central and Northeast Ohio. Eventually we will see drier air start to work in from the west with dewpoints in the single digits across lower Michigan. Before that occurs, we do maintain a northwest flow with moisture extending up into the shallow dendritic growth zone and think a light powdery snow will continue for favored upslope areas much of the night. We will be keeping an eye on trends across NW Pennsylvania where northwesterly flow is expected to become increasingly efficient overnight and an Advisory may be needed.

Previous discussion . Lake effect snow continues across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon as another trough axis swings east across Lake Erie. Snow intensity has increased slightly over the past couple of hours, especially in Lake, Geauga and Ashtabula Counties, prompting two lake effect special weather statements highlighting the gusty winds and reduced visibilities. Satellite and radar trends suggest some of this snow is being enhanced by an upstream connection from Lake Michigan and perhaps even as far north as Lake Superior. Increased snow totals over the Lake/Geauga/Ashtabula areas by about an inch or two through the next 6 hours. Hires guidance from the HRRR suggests that low-level moisture will be sufficient to sustain moderate lake effect snow through at least 7 PM this evening. Will have to monitor trends to see if a short-fused advisory is warranted for Lake/Geauga/Ashtabula.

Otherwise, as the trough swings east across the lake, flow aloft becomes more northwest to north, with lake effect snow primarily transitioning to Northwest Pennsylvania. In particular, will have to keep an eye on southern Erie County to see if an upstream connection to Lake Huron occurs. Did not have enough confidence to go with an advisory at this point for southern Erie, but if the upstream connection develops, an advisory will likely be needed overnight through tomorrow morning.

High pressure builds in later on Saturday, with height rises and drier air signaling an end to any residual lake effect snow across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Areas west of I-77 may have a decent shot at seeing sunshine during the day as high temperatures reach the upper 20s to lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Generally quiet early Sunday as high pressure just to the east moves farther east and cloudiness increases as warm advection overspreads the region. There is a slight chance of light snow or perhaps mixed wintry precipitation late in the day south of US Route 30. On Sunday night moisture will continue to increase and there is a slight chance again of light snow possibly mixed with freezing rain generally south of US Route 30. Northeast Ohio and nw PA should remain dry. On Monday mixed wintry precipitation with just snow on the northeast edge will spread into the area but timing differences appear as the GFS is more progressive(faster)than the ECMWF short wave over the Mississippi Valley. The NBM pops have been used which could be too low if the recent run of the GFS is correct. On Monday night the low pressure area will be moving across the Ohio Valley just south of the region and allow enough warm air aloft for mixed wintry precipitation to prevail across the region. The GFS is faster with the movement of the system and thus colder on the backside of the system but will lean toward the slower Euro which is more consistent with the NBM data.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The upper low will exit the region Tuesday evening with light mixed wintry precipitation ending as snow showers Tuesday afternoon.

The southern stream jet persists across the country through the remainder of the period with generally zonal flow with somewhat of a repeat of the pattern with a system passing by to the south of the region. The pattern is slightly colder and drier with little precipitation expected in the form of snow showers.

High temperatures will be below normal from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Lows will be in the teens to lower 20s.

AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/. Lake effect snow showers will continue across portions of the Ohio and Pennyslvania snowbelt overnight and will be most likely to impact YNG this evening and ERI after 06Z although could briefly clip CLE. Visibilities could drop to a mile or less in the heavier snow showers but that will be short lived at any terminal. Otherwise ceilings will range from MVFR to VFR overnight and expecting to start to see some clearing developing across NW Ohio between 04-06Z with an eastward expansion into Saturday. Winds will become more northwesterly with time and some gusts to 20 knots may continue overnight at terminals near Lake Erie.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible once again with snow Sunday night through Tuesday, some mixed precipitation is possible Monday.

MARINE. Northwest flow prevails across the region with a weak surface trough persisting across the lake. Cold advection is allowing northwest winds generally of 15-22 knots with higher gusts to mix to the surface and this will likely continue into Saturday afternoon. High pressure over the Iowa will gradually build east over the lake by Saturday evening and allow winds to slacken. The high pressure area will remain just northeast of the region into Sunday night as low pressure develops over the Ozarks. The low pressure area will move northeast into the lower Ohio Valley Monday afternoon and upper Ohio Valley by Tuesday morning. Northeast winds will increase early Monday and a small craft advisory is likely that will persist through Tuesday. The surface low will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Wednesday morning as high pressure persists north of the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ145-146.

SYNOPSIS . Kahn NEAR TERM . KEC/Kahn SHORT TERM . LaPlante LONG TERM . LaPlante AVIATION . KEC MARINE . LaPlante

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	7 mi	54 min	NW 17 G 24	26°F	37°F		1018.5 hPa	14°F
LORO1	23 mi	54 min	NW 24 G 29	25°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	31 mi	54 min	WNW 23 G 27	25°F	34°F		1017.2 hPa	16°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	42 mi	34 min	W 11 G 17	24°F			1017.6 hPa
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	48 mi	54 min	NW 24 G 27

Wind History for Cleveland, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH	4 mi	31 min	WNW 18 G 24	9.00 mi	Light Snow and Breezy	27°F	15°F	61%	1019.2 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH	8 mi	33 min	WNW 12 G 19	9.00 mi	Light Snow	25°F	13°F	60%	1020.9 hPa
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH	16 mi	39 min	WNW 13 G 21	15.00 mi	Overcast	23°F	14°F	68%	1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKL

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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