Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Merritt Park, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 7:51PM Monday August 19, 2019 12:37 PM EDT (16:37 UTC) Moonrise 10:06PMMoonset 9:49AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1226 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
This afternoon..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1226 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will approach the waters today and then weaken as it slowly moves across long island this evening. The weakening front will move farther south of long island late tonight into Tuesday. A wave of low pressure develops late Tuesday and approaches Tuesday night. A cold front approaches Wednesday and pushes through the waters by Thursday. High pressure builds in thereafter through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Merritt Park, NY
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location: 41.52, -73.8     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191541
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1141 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the region today and then weaken as
it slowly moves across long island this evening. The weakening
front will move farther south of long island late tonight into
Tuesday. A wave of low pressure develops late Tuesday and
approaches Tuesday night. A cold front approaches Wednesday and
pushes through the region by Thursday. High pressure builds in
through the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Forecast overall remains on track. Just minor updates to
temperatures and dewpoints with this morning forecast.

Otherwise, heat advisory remains in effect for much of the
region with heat indices expected to reach 95 to 100 degrees in
these areas. The exception is eastern suffolk county on long
island where heat indices will generally be in the lower 90s.

Main 500mb shortwave energy stays well north of the region
through tonight. Going into today, area on southern edge of
shortwave extending from central to southeast canada. Net mid
level flow across local area is quasi zonal.

Coherency in model guidance depicting an axis of positive
vorticity advection at 500mb moving in 18-00z across cwa. This
is associated with a shortwave axis. This will provide enhanced
lift.

Negative vorticity advection behind it will quell convection mid to
late this evening and into overnight. Slight rises in height
fields are evident in the model fields at 500mb for tonight.

At the surface, a cold front approaches the region today and
moves in late this afternoon into early this evening. Front
slowly moves slowly eastward, lingering into the evening and
weakening across long island, eventually moving south of long
island overnight. The NAM depicts a little more accurately with
precip with 00z runs compared to ECMWF and canadian models. 00z
gfs has too much precipitation for overnight.

With high heat and humidity in place for today, heat advisory
remains as is with exception of eastern long island. Heat
indices of 95-100 can be expected where advisory remains in
effect and it remains in effect until 8pm this evening. This
will also allow for high instability and with enhanced lift in
the afternoon would expect scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Gusty winds and heavy rain can be expected with these with some
relatively higher shear aloft late in the day. Showers and
thunderstorms continue into start of evening and then diminish
with loss of synoptic forcing and instability late tonight.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at ocean beaches
today.

Short term Tuesday
Mainly dry conditions expected with the front well south of long
island with exception being any convergence along developing sea
breeze circulations in the afternoon. More northerly surface
wind flow will allow for lower dewpoints. 850mb temperatures are
a few degrees cooler behind the cold front. This translates to
surface temperatures being a few degrees cooler than the
previous day. Overall, a little less hot and humid with heat
indices reaching a MAX in the lower 90s.

There will be an increase in pops for showers and thunderstorms
late in the day as a wave of low pressure approaches.

There will be another moderate risk of rip currents at ocean
beaches for Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Unsettled weather along with heat and humidity will continue on
Wednesday as the region remains on the western side of a bermuda
high. A vigorous upper trough will approach out of the great lakes
region into Thursday. Smaller scale features within the upper trough
still remain uncertain which will affect the timing and progression
of an approaching cold front. The front will be the focus for any
convection Wednesday night into Thursday. However, a weak pre
frontal trough could be enough to spark some showers and storms
during the day on Wednesday. Therefore, maintaining a chance pops
through through the afternoon.

With the approach of the cold front Wednesday night and Thursday,
there is a better chance of convection. There is a possibility for
severe weather, but uncertainty remains due to the eastward
progression of the cold front. If the front is slower to approach,
and later at night, the environment may not be as favorable. It
still looks like the front won't fully clear the area until sometime
on Thursday so decided to keep chance pops through much of the day.

Following the front, a cooler and more comfortable airmass
overspreads the region. Generally, a dry weekend is forecast with
high pressure building to the north.

Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday and Thursday before
falling a few degree below normal Friday and through the
weekend.

Aviation 16z Monday through Friday
A cold front approaches today and moves through tonight.

MainlyVFR today. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon, with the most likely timing between 20-24z for the
nyc terminals. Will cover this threat with tempo groups. Any
thunderstorms may lower flight categories to MVFR or even ifr for
brief period.

Winds mostly SW to S under 12 kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 23 mi68 min S 6 78°F 1015 hPa71°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 35 mi68 min Calm 80°F 1014 hPa71°F
TKPN6 35 mi56 min S 5.1 G 6 80°F 79°F1014.4 hPa71°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 41 mi56 min S 8 G 9.9 81°F 77°F1014.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi50 min NW 5.1 G 6 82°F 74°F1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY9 mi45 minSW 610.00 miFair84°F70°F63%1013.9 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY16 mi53 minW 820.00 miClear82°F73°F74%1015.6 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT20 mi45 minVar 410.00 miFair84°F69°F61%1015.4 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY24 mi44 minSSW 610.00 miFair82°F72°F72%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4W8S6S7S7SE7SE4E7S5E3SW3CalmCalm--SE5----CalmCalmCalmCalmS3--SW6
1 day ago6SW5SW8S6S7S6S5SE6N14
G24
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SE3CalmN3CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmS3----CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmSW65--SW6--S4SE4--SE3E3--SE3--SE4SE3--SE3E4Calm--S4SW5W6

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:16 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:59 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:45 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:12 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.52.93.13.12.72.11.40.80.40.20.51.32.12.62.92.92.82.31.71.10.70.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:57 AM EDT     0.81 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:37 AM EDT     -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.80.70.4-0-0.6-1-1.2-1.2-1-0.6-0.20.40.70.70.50.2-0.4-0.8-1.1-1.2-1-0.7-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.