Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Merritt Park, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Hot conditions expected today with heat indices near 100F in many areas. There remains a marginal severe thunderstorm threat late this afternoon into early this evening. Areas of wildfire smoke may also lead to hazy skies and reduced visibilities at times.

2) Unsettled conditions expected at times this weekend into early next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

3) High risk of rip currents at local ocean beaches today (see Marine discussion).

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A few different features to the forecast for today.

First, the heat for the week peaks this afternoon with the warmest spots approaching triple digits. Ridging in place stretching from the Upper Plains to the Northeast gets shunted locally by a shortwave trough passing to the north. This will push a surface cold front south through the area into the evening.
Before that though, a mild, muggy morning to start with temperatures in the 70s and 80s across the local Tri State.
Continued to side with slightly cooler guidance over the national blend given the persistent high bias seen with these events. Still, H850 temps progged 22-23C and strong surface heating ahead of any potential haze/smoke should allow most areas to climb into the 90s this afternoon, with the hottest urban spots of NE NJ and NYC near 100F. Factor in the modest surface moisture and heat indices should approach or exceed 100F in most areas. Heat Advisory remains in place for the entire local forecast area until 9pm this evening. While temperatures Thursday remain warm, 80s to lower 90s for most, dew pts fall off further behind a fropa this evening, and conditions won't feel quite as oppressive.

Second, the digging shortwave and approach of a cold front pose a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop later today.
SPC maintained a conditional marginal risk (1/5) for much of the area with the exception of S/SE CT. Strong heating early in the day, dew pts in the 60s, and respectable shear aloft could allow for storms to become severe should initiation occur. CAMs are mixed with coverage of any potential activity, and highest chances appear to be along the coast and offshore. Opted to keep PoPs at slight chance (<25%) for now, though any thunderstorm that does form will have the potential to become severe and produce damaging winds and perhaps even large hail. Timing should it occur looks to be late afternoon into early evening.

And third, Canadian wildfire smoke dispersing south and east from central Ontario may play a factor in the extent and intensity of the first two. HRRR based plume modeling highlights late afternoon and this evening when concentrations may be highest locally today, though there remains uncertainty in the sensible impact the smoke may have. Hazy skies appear likely, and it's possible visibilities could be reduced at times late today. Surface heating may also be muted depending on timing, and a more stable environment could help stave off convection.
Extended the areas of smoke in the forecast through Thursday with guidance indicating additional plumes settling over the region.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Conditions look to turn more unsettled into the weekend and early next week.

Heights fall further this weekend as another shortwave swings south from a meandering upper low over eastern Canada. Guidance continues to offer a variety of solutions for the upper pattern, but the most active periods look to be Saturday with a frontal wave moving through, and then again next Tuesday. A relatively moist air mass in place should allow for the potential for heavy downpours, but it remains too early to narrow down details on any severe threat.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR through this morning with high pressure shifting offshore. A cold front passes across the terminals late today.

Wildfire smoke from Canada could bring visibilities down to MVFR at times this afternoon into tonight. There is also a chance for MVFR visibilities from smoke on Thursday. Slantwise vsbys may be reduced as well.

An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs.

SW winds increase this morning, becoming 10-15 kt. Gusts 20-25 kt are expected late morning into the afternoon. There is a chance for gusts 25-30 kt at coastal terminals around 20z-00z.
Winds will also veer to the WNW-NW after 22z. Gusts quickly end after 00z with sustained speeds weakening through tonight. NW flow backs towards the west Thursday morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated shower/thunderstorm possible 19z-00z.

Amendments possible for visibilities due to uncertainty with timing/extent wildfire smoke this afternoon through Thursday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Thursday: MVFR vsby due to smoke possible. W-WSW winds G20kt in the afternoon.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm possible.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory remains in for the ocean waters east of Fire Island inlet until 2pm this afternoon. Seas here remain around or just above 5 ft, with gusts to 25 kt possible. Seas gradually lower through the day, and sub-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters through Saturday.

Rip Currents:

There is a high risk of dangerous rip currents today at all local ocean beaches. SW swells of 4-5 ft at 6 sec gradually subside through the day.

The risk lowers to moderate for Thursday as swells and winds continue to weaken relative to Wednesday.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

July 15: KEWR: 104/1995 KBDR: 97/1995 KNYC: 102/1995 KLGA: 103/1995 KJFK: 99/1983 KISP: 97/1995

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 15: KEWR: 82/1995 KBDR: 76/2013 KNYC: 84/1995 KLGA: 83/1995 KJFK: 79/1995 KISP: 77/1995

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>010.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for CTZ011-012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-078- 176>179.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ079>081.
High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350- 353.