Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay View, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A light snow continues across northern portions of the area late this afternoon as a cold front is pushing south across the region.
Temperatures at mid afternoon are near or just above freezing and road temperatures tend to be a couple degrees warmer. This will have a limiting effect on accumulations with generally a half inch or less in Northeast Ohio with locally up to an inch and a half for favored upslope areas in NW Pennsylvania. Much of this is expected on grassy or untreated elevated surfaces that may be cooler or anywhere that snow may still be falling just past sunset. Water vapor imagery shows dry air aloft already spreading west to east across the area as shortwave energy passes and the snow is really expected to wane between 6-9 PM.

Flow behind the cold front will veer to north northeast and clouds will linger downwind of Lake Huron across north central Ohio, gradually shifting west with time. High pressure builds overhead Monday with partly cloudy skies and some periods of sun. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s Monday except low to mid 20s in NW Pennsylvania where thermal profiles are running a few degrees cooler. Skies start off mostly clear Monday evening and the light winds will allow temperatures to quickly fall with lows ranging from the single digits in PA to low teens in Ohio.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As the weekend trough pulls away, a series of shortwave troughs will move through the northwest flow aloft towards the Great Lakes Region. The first low pressure system will reach the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. A 50+ knot low level jet will overspread the area on Tuesday morning with warm advection increasing. Although it may take some time for the low levels to saturate, some light snow is expected to develop across northeastern portions of the area. Minor accumulation of a dusting to an inch are possible with temperatures trending warmer. Southwesterly winds will also be breezy as we attempt to mix into the stronger flow aloft.
Inversion heights will likely be 2000 feet or higher and expect to see wind gusts of 30-40 mph as the warm front lifts north during the late morning and early afternoon.

Chances of precipitation decrease Tuesday evening with dry air aloft and weak ridging at the surface before a stronger clipper system approaches the area Wednesday morning. While some spread exists between solutions, a 988 mb surface low is forecast to cross southern Lake Michigan early Wednesday. The surface pressure gradient tightens and a near 60 knot low level jet moves overhead, but mixing depths are expected to be very shallow at 1000 feet or less with 850mb temperatures around 0 C in the warm sector. Windy conditions still expected but wind gusts may take until the cold front arrives from the northwest late in the afternoon to really increase. The GFS shows a compact trough from the surface to 700mb swinging southeast across the area and wind gusts of 40 mph or higher could accompany this secondary push of cold air. We will tend to be on the warm side of this clipper initially with precipitation arriving as rain or quickly transitioning to rain in the pre- dawn hours of Wednesday. Rain will be the primary precipitation type into early afternoon before starting to mix with or transition back over to snow on Wednesday afternoon.

The upper level trough axis is east of the area by Thursday morning but some differences exist in mid-range models on how quickly the trough pulls away. This may result in a loss of deep moisture on Wednesday night but in general expect to see lake effect snow showers develop in a northwest flow regime. It is too far far out to have a handle on accumulations but light to moderate lake effect snows are possible as 850mb temperatures fall to -10 to -12C.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The long term forecast begins with a broad longwave trough in place across the eastern United States. Another piece of energy dives south from the arctic, likely bringing the coldest air of the season. Temperatures at 850mb look to fall to around -18C west of the Great Lakes and possibly maintaining temperatures near that cold across Lake Erie. While differences in model spread exist, all long range models have a very cold airmass overhead next weekend with good potential for lake effect snows in the northwesterly flow.
How quickly the trough pulls away will impact how much snow is possible in the primary and secondary snowbelt next weekend and could see some lighter snow amounts area wide with the cold front. There is high confidence in below normal temperatures through next weekend and may remain below 30 degrees through the entire long term forecast. By Sunday, some areas may not even reach 20 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/
A band of light snow is impacting Northwest Ohio and points east-northeast near Lake Erie and into Northwest PA as of 18z.
Due to small flake size, this otherwise very light snow is effectively reducing vsby to IFR, with low MVFR to IFR ceilings also observed under the snow. Conditions are in a higher MVFR to VFR range farther southeast at MFD, CAK, and YNG where it is not yet snowing, and quickly improve to MVFR and eventually VFR behind the back edge of the snow in MI. Expect a period of lower vsby (likely IFR) and ceilings (IFR to low MVFR) to sweep east- southeast across CLE, CAK, and YNG over the next few hours.
Meanwhile, expect TOL and FDY to begin improving over the next few hours, with improvement continuing to the southeast after 0z as the snow dissipates/exits. Am expecting limited lake effect snow to flow south-southwest off of Lake Erie through early Monday, probably just some flurries but could locally maintain some MVFR ceilings. All will continue improving to VFR on Monday as lingering lake effect clouds dissipate as high pressure briefly builds in.

Light winds this afternoon will increase out of the north at 7-13 knots this evening, with some 20kt gusts near the lake.
Winds gradually shift more east-northeast at 5-10kt overnight tonight into Monday.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected again with snow on Tuesday which will gradually transition to rain by Wednesday morning. Rain will transition back over to snow Wednesday evening through Thursday. Gusty winds are likely Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE
Light northwest winds this afternoon will quickly shift northerly and increase to 15-25 knots this evening, then gradually shift more east-northeasterly through tonight and into Monday. Winds will remain elevated at 15-20kt through tonight before decreasing more on Monday, falling below 15kt across the entire lake by late morning.
Waves will increase to 2-5 feet this evening and persist through early Monday before subsiding to 1-3 feet by late Monday morning.
Small Craft Advisories remain as posted east of the Islands for this evening and tonight, expiring at 7 AM Monday east of Geneva-on-the- Lake and at 10 AM to the west. Sustained winds may briefly reach 20kt in the western basin this evening, though the duration of any advisory-level conditions is expected to be too brief to expand the advisory west of the Islands. Winds will continue gradually veering to an east and then southeast direction at <15kt through Monday.

Rough marine conditions are expected late Monday night through Wednesday night. An initial weaker low pressure will track through the northern Great Lakes on Tuesday, lifting a warm front across Lake Erie. Winds will shift south-southeast to south-southwest and increase to 15-25kt late Monday night into early Tuesday as the warm front crosses the lake. South-southwest winds will peak at 25-35kt during the day Tuesday, with 30-60% confidence in marginally reaching gale-force winds across the central and eastern portions of the lake. There is some question on how well the very strong winds aloft will mix down in a warm advection (upglide) regime on Tuesday, which leads to the medium confidence in reaching a gale. Winds remain south-southwest and lull slightly (to 20-30kt) Tuesday evening/night. Stronger low pressure tracks through the central Great Lakes late Tuesday night through Wednesday, pushing a cold front across the lake Wednesday afternoon. Southwest winds increase to 30-40kt ahead of the front late Tuesday night into Wednesday, before shifting northwest at 25-35kt late Wednesday and gradually subsiding Wednesday night as low pressure exits. Confidence in gales on Wednesday is higher given the involvement of a cold front, stronger winds aloft, and generally stronger low pressure...at 20- 40% in the western basin and 50-80%+ across the central and eastern basin. A Low Water Advisory will be needed Tuesday into Wednesday for the western basin as we get closer. Gale Watches will be issued within the next couple of forecast cycles for at least the central and eastern basins...given somewhat lower confidence in reaching gales on Tuesday and a brief lull Tuesday evening held off on starting gale headlines for now, though they are coming.

After a brief period of quieter conditions Thursday into early Friday, another period of stronger west-northwest winds is likely Friday or Saturday behind a strong cold front which will usher in Arctic air for the weekend
More headlines will be needed

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ144>147.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ148-149.