Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
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Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:49PM Monday January 25, 2021 7:03 PM EST (00:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:47PMMoonset 5:33AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ233 Vineyard Sound- 416 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this evening. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of snow.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri and Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat and Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 416 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure over new england provides light winds and dry weather tonight into Monday morning. Weak low pressure then tracks south of new england Tue afternoon and night, vsby lowering as snow overspreads the waters. As the low moves out to sea Wed, light nne winds expected across the ma and ri waters. Thursday, powerful low pressure develops off the nc coast, however this storm will track due east, harmlessly out to sea. Although, nnw winds will increase across new england. Friday, an arctic front blast through across ma and ri waters with nnw gales likely along with moderate to heavy freezing spray possible. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.53, -70.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 252332 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 632 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry and quiet weather tonight as high pressure remains in control. A warm front lifts in and brings minor snow accumulation Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will result in slick travel for parts of the region. Unsettled for midweek with considerable cloudiness and periods of ocean effect precipitation as a powerful low near the mid- Atlantic waters passes well to our south. Period of much below normal temperatures and low wind chills for late in the week, only gradually modifying into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/.

7 pm Update .

Forecast is on track with no changes necessary this evening. Temperatures were adjusted slightly to bring in line with observations, and timing of incoming cloud cover was slower a bit.

Temperatures this evening are currently in the upper 20s and will bottom out in the teens overnight.

Previous Discussion .

Highlights

* Dry and quiet weather with increasing cloud cover.

Ridge axis builds into the eastern Great Lakes tonight, but will flatten out a bit as a trough lifts into Lower Michigan/Ohio Valley. A surface high will build into the region.

Anticipate mid to high clouds to move in as low pressure deepens over the Ohio Valley and warmer air advects in from south. Have nudged down lows to the 15th percentile of guidance as there should be good radiational cooling, but only crux will be how quickly the clouds blanket the region. Lows range from teens across the interior to the 20s along the coastal plain. There will be a few locations across the higher elevation where readings are in the single digits above zero.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Highlights

* Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern slopes of the Berkshires and north central CT for light accumulating snowfall late on Tuesday into Wednesday. Snowfall totals of 2-4 inches where the advisory is in effect. Light snow elsewhere with amounts in the 1-3 inch range.

* Light snow lingers on Wednesday, but coastal areas will see some rain mixing in.

Ridge axis builds offshore on Tuesday while a trough lifts into the eastern Great Lakes. The trough moves into southern New England by late Tuesday night and offshore early on Wednesday. A surface low will lift across the eastern Great Lakes and warmer air overspreads the region. Will see a secondary low develop near the DE/NJ/VA area late on Tuesday and move northeast well to the southeast of southern New England on Wednesday. An inverted trough associated with this low will be present on Wednesday lingering light precip.

Dry to start across southern New England on Tuesday and it will likely take a bit for precipitation to begin with a dry airmass in place - dewpoints start out in the teens to single digits on Tuesday. This will gradually moisten as winds shift from the north to the east advecting in marine air. Have tapered back precipitation chances, but don't think things will really get going until the afternoon when the boundary layer is able to moisten up per NAM/GFS BUFKIT soundings. This period of drier air eroding is the best opportunity for any wintry mix, but think this should be short lived and should be isolated to the south coast per model soundings.

Did trend the precipitation amounts upward as the 12Z suite of guidance continues to the upward trend. This does tick up snowfall amounts to around 3 inches into central MA. If the upward trend continues will likely need to expand the Winter Weather Advisory further east in future updates. As of right now expect 1-3 inches of snow accumulation outside of the current advisory with amounts closest to 3 inches central and portions of western MA. Lesser amounts are anticipated elsewhere. Should see the heaviest snowfall late on Tuesday into Tuesday night before things wind down overnight into early Wednesday. Issued the Winter Weather Advisory where am most confident in totals falling in the 2-4 inch territory. Luckily for this event it still does not appear that the snow growth region coincides with the best omega.

Inverted trough in place associated with the departing secondary low on Wednesday. This will linger light snow showers across much of southern New England on Wednesday, but expect coastal areas to see some rain mixing in. Could potentially see a few spots get an additional half inch of light snow across the interior. Temperatures in the upper 20s to 30s on Tuesday and 30s to low 40s on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Wednesday Night:

Persistent snow showers are likely across southern New England overnight Wednesday as an inverted trough trails across the area. Snow will be focused across southern New England, but may switch to rain across Cape Cod and the islands.

Lows Wednesday night will range from the mid 20s in the west to mid 30s across far eastern Massachusetts.

Thursday:

Snow chances diminish by daybreak Thursday as a high pressure system establishes itself over southern New England. A potent coastal low will track south of the region. Precipitation chances across southern New England are low considering high model consensus that the low will be centered off of the mid-atlantic. While this system will be a miss in terms of precipitation, winds will build from the NNE as the low moves off the coast into the Atlantic. Winds are likely to gust to 30 kts. The NNE wind will be accompanied by a region of enhanced moisture that may generate some ocean effect snow across Cape Cod, the islands, and the South Shore of Massachusetts. There remains a lower probability that these snow showers will expand to the I-95 corridor or even further. High temperatures Thursday will range from the mid to upper 30s.

Thursday Night into Friday Night:

An area of colder than average air is pulled southward from Hudson Bay as the mid-Atlantic low pushes eastward. This pattern change will result in an extended period of much colder temperatures, as we trend well below average. Lows Thursday night will dip into the single digits and low teens. Gusty northwest winds, 15-20kts, will drop windchills below zero across most localities overnight Thursday. Worcester and points west may experience wind chills as low as -10F, but it is anticipated that values will remain above advisory criteria. Temperatures will struggle to climb into the mid to upper teens on Friday across the west, while eastern locations will climb into the low 20s. Increasing winds Friday, between 20- 30kts, will keep daytime apparent temperatures in the single digits.

While winds begin to subside overnight Friday, cold temperatures remain in place. Widespread single digits are expected, except along the coast where temperatures remain in the teens.

Saturday through Sunday:

With high pressure in place, the cold airmass will begin to loosen its grip on the region on Saturday, but temperatures will still remain about 10 degrees below average. Highs are expected to top out in the mid 20s. Saturday night will see temperatures drop again into the high single digits and low teens, however the subsiding wind will keep apparent temperatures 5-15 degrees above zero.

On Sunday, temperatures rebound significantly, as still below average but more seasonable highs are expected, with upper 20s west and mid 30s south and east.

The very cold air mass gradually modifies into the weekend, with high pressure remaining in control. This should support mainly dry weather into Sunday, though temperatures will still trend below- average for late January.

Sunday Night through Monday:

High uncertainty remains about the timing of a potential coastal low Sunday night into Monday. Several models show consensus about the presence of the coastal low, but differ significantly with timing and evolution. The GFS shows that the system will begin push into the region on Sunday, while the European model suggests a much slower progression, with the bulk of precipitation approaching late Monday. As a result, temperatures, and QPF are hard to nail down late in the forecast and will be highly dependent on storm progression. More attention will be paid to this potential system as we approach the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

00Z Update .

Tonight . High confidence

VFR with light northwest to north winds. Mid to high clouds continuing to increase.

Tuesday . High confidence in trends moderate in timing

VFR for at least the first half of the day. Should gradually see MVFR and possibly IFR conditions spreading in late in the afternoon as snow spreads in from W to E. Light north winds shifting to the E.

Tuesday night . Moderate confidence

MVFR to IFR with localized LIFR. Snow across southern New England, may have some visibility reductions especially during the evening where could be falling moderately into MVFR visibility at times. Expect the intensity to come down after midnight.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN, chance RA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHSN.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Have continues Small Craft Advisories across the eastern waters into this evening and late tonight. Will continue to see northwest to north winds diminishing as high pressure builds in. Should see waves fall below 5 ft late tonight.

Rain and snow spreads in Tuesday and Tuesday night and could bring some visibility reductions. Winds shift from the N to the E on Tuesday. Should see some 15-20 kt gusts across the southern waters late on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Wave heights 2-4 ft.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of snow showers.

Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance of snow showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ002. MA . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ002-008-009. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231- 251. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ254.

SYNOPSIS . BL/BW/KS NEAR TERM . BL/BW/KS SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . BW/KS AVIATION . BL/BW/KS MARINE . BL/BW/KS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 4 mi138 min W 1 41°F 1016 hPa15°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi63 min 35°F 37°F1016.8 hPa (+0.8)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 15 mi43 min W 1.9 G 3.9 38°F
44090 24 mi67 min 40°F3 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 27 mi63 min N 12 G 13 1017.8 hPa (+0.8)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 29 mi63 min WNW 1 G 2.9 30°F 34°F1016.9 hPa (+1.2)
CHTM3 34 mi63 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 31°F 34°F1016.3 hPa (+1.0)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 35 mi63 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 35°F 1017.4 hPa (+1.0)
FRXM3 35 mi63 min 34°F 9°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 35 mi63 min 33°F 42°F1017.6 hPa (+1.0)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 41 mi63 min NW 6 G 8.9 35°F 40°F1017 hPa (+0.7)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 42 mi78 min NNW 5.1 33°F 1017 hPa6°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 43 mi63 min NNW 4.1 G 8.9 33°F 1017.8 hPa (+0.8)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 44 mi63 min W 7 G 8.9 34°F 38°F1016.7 hPa (+0.8)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 46 mi63 min NW 5.1 G 7 33°F 40°F1017.2 hPa (+0.8)
PVDR1 48 mi63 min NW 5.1 G 5.1 33°F 1017.6 hPa (+1.0)5°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi67 min 47°F2 ft
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 49 mi63 min N 4.1 G 6 34°F 40°F1017.5 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA9 mi70 minNW 410.00 miFair24°F6°F46%1016.7 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA9 mi2.1 hrsNW 410.00 miFair32°F1°F27%1016.3 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi67 minNW 410.00 miFair34°F9°F35%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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--NW5--NW7NW7NW7NW10NW10NW10NW6NW12NW9NW6NW4N3Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Falmouth Heights, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Falmouth Heights
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:06 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:33 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:17 AM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:51 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:58 PM EST     1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.20.30.50.711.21.31.31.10.90.70.40.20.10.20.40.60.91.11.21.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:56 AM EST     0.07 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:33 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:37 AM EST     3.09 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:00 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:24 AM EST     -3.25 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:24 PM EST     0.12 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:06 PM EST     3.33 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:38 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:53 PM EST     -3.10 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.1-1.40.41.82.533.12.50.3-2.5-3.2-3.1-2.6-1.9-11.42.43.13.33.12.2-1.5-2.8-3.1

Weather Map
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.