Wednesday, February19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Woods Hole, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 5:22PM Wednesday February 19, 2020 9:10 AM EST (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 5:10AMMoonset 2:29PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 716 Am Est Wed Feb 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat through Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Est Wed Feb 19 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front crosses the waters early this morning, followed by northwest wind gusts of 30 to 35 later this morning and afternoon. Large high pres over the central states will then slowly builds E and pass S of our waters this weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woods Hole, MA
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location: 41.53, -70.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 191137 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 637 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry weather returns today, but it will become windy. Winds diminish this evening, but much colder weather works into the region tonight and Thursday.Below-normal temperatures continue into Friday, before temperatures return to above normal levels for the weekend. Our weather pattern through the weekend will be dry, with the next chance for precipitation being Monday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 637 AM Update:

* Mostly sunny but windy today

Infrared satellite indicated back edge of overcast cloud shield trailing from the North Shore of MA southwestward through the Hartford metro area this morning. Overcast lies SE of this line, with rapid clearing taking place NW of this line.

Temperatures were running a few degrees too cold in the cloudy areas this morning, and have modified these by blending in the warmer GFS LAMP guidance through late this morning. Overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged - skies are expected to clear across the remainder of CT into RI and eastern MA by mid to late morning, and we are still anticipating a sunny but pretty blustery day thereafter. Northwest wind gusts developing to the 30-40 mph range - gusts may get close to Advisory levels but appears too marginal to hoist any Advisories. Dewpoints should also start to fall as sun comes out and helps to mix the atmosphere. Highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s should occur around midday tyda before cold advection really gets going and results in temperatures starting to gradually fall into the afternoon.

Prior discussion from 335 AM follows .

A cold front crossed the region early this morning. A few lingering spot showers across the Cape/Islands should come to an end by daybreak. Otherwise, cold air advection aloft today will be offset as skies becoming mostly sunny. Temperatures much of the day should be in the 35 to 40 degree range across the interior and between 40 and 45 along the coastal plain. It will feel colder though as it becomes windy later this morning and afternoon with steepening lapse rates and a modest pressure gradient. Northwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph developing later this morning and continue into the afternoon. It is possible a few locations briefly touch wind advisory criteria, but felt that risk was too isolated to warrant any wind headlines.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. Tonight .

Gusty northwest winds will diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating and as large high pressure begins to build in from the west. Dry weather persists, with just a low risk for a brief flurry/snow shower in our western zones after midnight with some remnant lake moisture. Otherwise, it will turn cold tonight compared to what we have experienced most of this winter. Low temps by daybreak should mainly be in the teens to near 20.

Thursday .

A mixture of clouds and sun are anticipated on Thursday, but it will be cold. High temperatures will range from the middle to upper 20s in the high terrain, to the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. High pressure will continue to build in from the west, resulting in much less wind than today. Still may see some northwest wind gusts around 20 mph.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Highlights .

* Dry conditions with below-avg temps continuing into Thurs nite and Fri. Slow moderation to temps begin later Fri/Fri nite.

* Above-avg temps resume for the weekend, with plenty of sun and dry conditions.

* Unsettled weather returns Mon-Tues, with precipitation chances on the increase. Details still uncertain, though looks mainly wet vs wintry at this point in time.

Details .

Thursday Night through Friday Night:

A continued colder and dry pattern for this period, with the core of the coldest air progged to settle over Southern New England Thurs night into the first part of Fri. 925-850 mb thermal trough becomes established across New England early Fri; though the thermal trough axis is pretty transient/progressive, with slow moderation later Fri.

850 mb temps dip to around -16 to -18C, with 925 mb temps -14 to - 16C. Good radiational cooling is likely Thursday night, and MOS typically performs better than a model-blended approach in those situations; do have some reservations about weighing MOS too heavily though as the recent MAV guidance seems too cold given a lack of snowpack. Opted for lows in the single digits to the low teens in the interior/mid teens near the coasts; a few spots in northern MA such as Orange could however drop to near zero.

Northwest winds will slacken a bit with speeds mainly 5 mph or less under sfc ridging Thurs night/early Fri. That should keep wind chills from dipping too low. Model guidance does show some ocean- effect SHSN early Fri, but this may be more confined to the offshore waters with guidance trending wind directions from a 310-340 direction versus 360-030.

A chilly start, though flow will become more WNW-W late and low- level thermal profiles warming a bit. Full sun supports highs in the 20s to near freezing, about 5-10 degrees below average compared to late-Feb normals. Winds continue to become SW into Fri night with lows upper teens to mid/upper 20s.

The Weekend:

Shaping up to be a nice weekend with large high pres initially over the Southern Appalachians in TN/western NC shifting into the coastal waters off NC thru Sunday. This will afford continued dry weather, plenty of sun and milder southwest breezes, as 925 mb temps steadily warm to around -2 to -4C. Will show highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s Sat, and well into the 40s to near 50 on Sunday.

Monday into Tuesday:

After a prolonged stretch of dry weather, early next week starts to turn more unsettled. This unsettled pattern stems from ejection of a deamplifying mid-level low from the Desert Southwest. Guidance shows significant variation in low track and evolution - in general, the international guidance show better agreement than compared to the drier GFS. Will continue to maintain chance PoPs in this period; at the moment thinking mainly a rain event but potential for an initial/brief wintry mix pending sfc temps mainly NW/northern MA. This is still 6-7 days away and will continue to follow guidance trends in the coming days in this period before specific details can be narrowed down.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today . High confidence.

VFR. Only operationally significant factor for today is NW wind gusts, which project to develop/increase by late morning into the afternoon. Gusts 25 to 35 knots.

Tonight . High confidence. VFR with NW wind gusts diminishing this evening.

Thursday . High confidence. VFR with NW wind gusts between 15 and 20 knots.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night through Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.

MARINE. Today . High confidence. Strong cold advection aloft will steepen lapse rates over the ocean. NW wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots later this morning and afternoon. Opted for Gale headlines across our eastern waters with strong small craft headlines elsewhere. Seas over the open waters will be on the order of 4 to 8 feet.

Tonight . High confidence. The pressure gradient begins to weaken as large high pressure slowly builds in from the west. However, strong cold advection will still yield NW wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots and SCA headlines will be needed for the open waters. Some light freezing spray should develop too.

Thursday . High confidence. Some lingering SCA wind gusts/seas across the eastern waters in the morning should diminish by afternoon as high pressure slowly builds in from the west.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ232>234. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231-251-254. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ235-237. Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ255-256.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/Loconto NEAR TERM . Frank/Loconto SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . Frank/Loconto MARINE . Frank/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 0 mi53 min 40°F 39°F1018.9 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi86 min W 2.9 40°F 1018 hPa33°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 21 mi71 min WNW 12 G 13 1019.5 hPa (+3.1)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 21 mi71 min 14 G 16 39°F 32°F
44090 28 mi41 min 40°F2 ft
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 29 mi53 min 40°F 1019.1 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 29 mi59 min 39°F 39°F1019.3 hPa
FRXM3 29 mi59 min 40°F 28°F
PRUR1 34 mi53 min 41°F 27°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi53 min 40°F 39°F1018.5 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 35 mi53 min 40°F 35°F1019.5 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi86 min NW 5.1 39°F 1019 hPa28°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi53 min 41°F 1020.1 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 38 mi53 min 39°F 39°F1019.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 39 mi59 min 40°F 39°F1019.8 hPa
PVDR1 42 mi53 min 41°F 1019.5 hPa25°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 43 mi59 min 40°F 38°F1019.3 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 46 mi41 min 44°F6 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA9 mi78 minNW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F28°F65%1018.5 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi86 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast37°F30°F75%1017.9 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA19 mi78 minW 710.00 miOvercast38°F28°F70%1018.5 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA23 mi75 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast41°F28°F62%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMVY

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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SW8SW5SW6W4W5W3W4W4W3CalmCalmCalmNW3W3CalmW4NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Massachusetts
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Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:06 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:54 AM EST     1.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:02 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:59 PM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.61.31.821.81.71.61.30.80.40.1-0.10.10.511.31.10.80.80.70.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Quicks Hole (middle), Massachusetts Current
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Quicks Hole (middle)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:39 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:56 AM EST     2.34 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:18 AM EST     -0.04 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:39 AM EST     -2.08 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:30 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:09 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:29 PM EST     2.54 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:04 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:14 PM EST     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-0.80.91.72.22.32.11.2-1.4-2-2.1-1.8-1.5-1.2-0.41.52.12.52.520.6-1.5-1.9-1.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.