Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fishkill, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Tranquil weather with dry conditions, slightly below normal temperatures and comfortable humidity continues through Sunday.

2) Unsettled weather with periods of showers and possible thunderstorms late Monday into a portion of Thursday due to a slow moving frontal system.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
High pressure remains in control for the remainder of the weekend. Dry conditions will continue with slightly below normal temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. Highs reach the low 80s with a few spots in NE reaching the mid 80s on Sunday. Lows tonight and Sunday night will be in the upper 50s inland and Long Island Pine Barrens, and low to mid 60s closer to the coast.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Mean troughing will persist over the NE through next week.
Shortwave energy moving around the periphery of western US ridging and will likely aid in the amplification of the trough Tuesday, with potential closed low development over the NE midweek.

High pressure moves offshore on Monday with weak surface troughing setting up in the vicinity. Some shortwave energy will likely move across the area Monday afternoon and evening.
This will support the potential of showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, mainly NW of the NYC metro. Moisture levels at this time are not impressive and shear is weak, so no concerns for any severe weather or flooding with this activity at this time.

A slow moving frontal system approaches Monday night into Tuesday. Low pressure is progged to develop along this front, but there are still significant differences among the modeling with the timing and location of its development. The low may develop late Tuesday over upstate NY or could develop over the Mid Atlantic. These differences play a large roll in the outcome of sensible weather through the middle of the week. The further NW track would favor sending a line of showers and thunderstorms across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Low pressure development over the Mid Atlantic may keep the area more stable, but still bring potential for locally heavy rain.
The solutions that develop the low over the Mid Atlantic track it ENE along the coast Tuesday night through Wednesday with potential of a cooler/more stable environment and a steadier rainfall.

The bottom line here is there are still a large amount of uncertainty in the evolution of the system, which may yield different outcomes. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely Tuesday into Tuesday night and the potential is there for locally heavy downpours and localized flash flooding. WPC has continued to place the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday. Any severe threat will be predicated on extent of heating/instability on Tuesday, which remains on uncertain. Unsettled conditions continue on Wednesday, but placement/track of the surface low/upper low will play a huge role in the sensible weather outcome. The main message here is the chances for showers a few thunderstorms continue through the day.

The proximity of the upper low and trough axis supports continued chances of showers and possibly a afternoon/evening thunderstorm Thursday. The trough may linger over New England to end the week with the latest model consensus probabilities for precip are low and largely confined to the interior.

Astronomical tides will also rise through the week with the approach of a full moon on Wednesday.

Near to slightly below normal for much of the week.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Gradually weakening high pressure will remain over the area into Sunday.

VFR.

ESE/SE winds around 10 kt diminish this evening and may even take on a more southerly component before becoming light and variable or light E/NE. For Sunday, winds will once again veer to the ESE/SE at 10 kt or less.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds may become more southerly than what is reflected in TAFs, otherwise unscheduled AMD are not expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: MVFR possible in the afternoon and evening. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm from the NYC metros north/west.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower conditions possible. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening. S winds G15-20kt.

Wednesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. E winds 15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions will remain below SCA levels with high pressure over the region. E-SE flow could gust up to 20 kt at times this afternoon and then Monday afternoon. Ocean seas will remain around 3 ft. SCA conditions are likely to return to the ocean waters and possibly to all waters Tue-Wed, but will be dependent on timing of a frontal system and possible low development.
Lingering elevated seas could continue on the ocean into Thursday.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Monday at ocean beaches with a a 3-4 ft E-SE wind wave/swell.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.