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LEZ144 The Islands To Vermilion Oh-vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 329 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Today..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers early, then isolated showers late this morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of rain showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 41 degrees, off cleveland 44 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 090952 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 452 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will move from the Upper Great Lakes to Quebec through the day with its cold front moving west to east across the region through Sunday morning. A trough lingers through Sunday before high pressure moves eastward over the region for the start of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Isolated to scattered showers have moved across the western CWA and clipped the Cleveland Area as of 0830Z. These appear to have developed with the best moisture advection and an assist from the left entrance region of a LLJ to generate lift over the CWA. The further east these showers get through mid morning the better chance that they decrease in coverage as the lower level dry air evaporates them. However we did end up going with fairly high chances of showers that move from west to east through mid to late morning. Rainfall amounts will be on the light side but should be enough to wet the ground at many locations.

We then await the arrival of a cold front late this afternoon into the evening as low pressure races to Quebec. Models are now not nearly as aggressive with a ripple of low pressure moving along the cold front later tonight into Sunday. This should mean a more progressive cold front with the main impact of showers occurring from southwest to northeast between 7 pm and 2 am.
Still an impressive mid level jet moving overhead which may assist with the development of some thunder. Best chances of seeing thunder looks to be near and south of a line from Marion to Akron to Erie. Since the front is more progressive it appears rainfall amounts will ranger from a quarter to three quarters of an inch.

Winds will need to be monitored today as a southerly LLJ attempts to mix to the surface between the morning showers and the approaching cold front. If we do not see any breaks in the cloud cover it will be difficult to get wind gusts above 30-35 mph.

Temperatures are not currently dropping much with the cloud cover and winds 10 mph or more at most locations. However there could be some evaporative cooling with the showers, especially across the east. Lows through sunrise likely range from the mid 40's across inland NW PA to the mid 50's across NW OH and where the downsloping southerly winds persist. So with a likely warm start to the day it wont take much to see temperatures approach 60 degrees across most of OH, mid/upper 50's across NW PA. Cold front moves across the region tonight with cooler temperatures across the western CWA. Lows should range from the mid/upper 30's across NW OH to the mid 40's near the OH/PA border.

An upper level trough will still be approaching the region so some lift remains for Sunday. Current thoughts are that we see some isolated/scattered rain/snow showers across the region during the afternoon. Dont think we see any significant snow accumulations. However the higher terrain could see some light amounts on the grass or mulched areas. Highs should be in lower/mid 40's during the morning across the east then a slow drop through the day. Elsewhere highs should be within a couple degrees of 40. A colder westerly wind arrives by Sunday morning and persists through the afternoon. This will keep wind chills in the 30's through the day.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A trough aloft should advance from the western Great Lakes to the Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley Sunday night and be accompanied by surface troughing. Moist isentropic ascent ahead of the trough axis aloft should contribute to scattered snow shower development across our CWA. In addition, abundant/deep low-level moisture on the synoptic-scale, low-level CAA, and lake surface to 850 mb temp differences growing to near 16C over ~6C Lake Erie should allow WNW'erly to NW'erly mean low-level flow to generate bands of lake- effect snow (LES) over/downwind of the lake, in/near the snowbelt of NE OH and NW PA. Hi-res model forecast soundings suggest low-level convergence along the major axes of the precip bands may cause strong/maximized ascent at a cloud temp of ~-5C as the upper-reaches of lake-effect clouds extend into the DGZ. This set-up would favor periods of heavy graupel. Of note, a lingering surface-based melting layer may allow rain to mix with snow Sunday evening, but low-level CAA will likely allow precip type to transition to just snow across our entire region by midnight Monday morning and contribute to lows reaching the upper 20's to lower 30's around daybreak. Fresh snow accumulations are expected to reach 1-3" in the heaviest, most- persistent LES and less than 1" elsewhere.

A ridge aloft builds from the north-central U.S. on Monday into Monday evening and eventually crests E'ward over our CWA overnight Monday night. Simultaneously, the accompanying surface ridge builds into our region as the parent surface high pressure center moves from the Lower/Mid MS Valley toward the central Appalachians. This pattern will favor fair weather across most of our CWA. However, lake-induced thermodynamics are expected to remain favorable to LES to persist over and downwind of Lake Erie, in/near the snowbelt, as mean low-level flow backs from NW'erly to WNW'erly during the day on Monday. During Monday night, lingering LES should shift offshore as mean low-level flow backs further to SW'erly. Simultaneously, LES should weaken gradually as low-level warm/dry air advection and a lowering subsidence inversion cause lake-induced instability to wane. Additional fresh snow accumulations should reach another 1-3" in the heaviest, most-persistent LES, which is forecast to be focused across interior central and eastern Erie County, PA, where a relatively-prolonged upstream moisture connection to Lake Huron and colder environment in the higher terrain should allow snow to accumulate at greater rates and more easily through the event.
Daytime highs are forecast to reach the lower to mid 30's on Monday and be followed by overnight lows mainly in the mid to upper 20's around daybreak Tuesday.

Cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft, embedded shortwave troughs, and associated surface troughing are expected to impact our region on Tuesday through Tuesday night as high pressure at the surface and aloft exits E'ward. Another cold front should sweep E'ward across our region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Limited low-level moisture should permit a dry cold front passage. Behind the cold front, light LES showers are possible Tuesday night in/near the snowbelt of NE OH and NW PA as low-level CAA allows lake surface to 850 mb temp differences to rebound to near 13C over Lake Erie, yet low-level moisture remains meager. Any fresh snowfall should be less than 1".
Daytime highs should reach the upper 30's to mid 40's on Tuesday and be followed by overnight lows reaching mainly the mid to upper 20's around daybreak Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Aloft, cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow on Wednesday should be followed by a ridge building from the central Great Plains and vicinity Wednesday night through Friday. At the surface, a stabilizing ridge should influence our region as the core of this ridge moves from near the Upper MS Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic region. Primarily fair weather is forecast, but very light LES showers may linger generally southeast and east of Lake Erie on Wednesday before ending by nightfall Wednesday evening due, in part, to a lowering subsidence inversion accompanying the ridge. Daytime highs in the mid 30's to lower 40's on Wednesday should moderate to the 40's to perhaps lower 50's on Friday as net low-level WAA accompanies the ridge. Overnight lows should reach mainly the mid to upper 20's Wednesday night and the upper 20's to lower 30's Thursday night.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
Isolated to scattered showers will move west to east across the region through the morning. The coverage of them should decrease as they move toward the OH/PA border as low level dry air reduces the coverage. As these showers occur ceilings that are currently low end VFR should lower to MVFR levels. As a cold front approaches there may be a brief period where ceilings lift back to low end VFR. This is the time period where the strongest wind gusts could occur. Gusts around 30 knots may occur near and west of a line from KLPR to K4I3.

Best chances of rain begin after sunset then move west to east with the cold front through the overnight. Expect to see MVFR/IFR conditions with the showers. We have introduced a mention of thunder near and south of a line from KMNN to KAKR to KERI.
Ceilings remain at MVFR levels in the wake of the cold front with westerly winds of 8-15 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR continues Sunday scattered rain/snow showers.
Lake effect snow will produce non-VFR conditions across NE OH into NW PA Sunday night into Monday.

MARINE
Southerly winds around 10 to 20 knots today shift to westerly tonight as a ridge exits eastward from Lake Erie and is followed by an eastward cold front passage. Waves of 4 feet or less are expected in U.S. waters through the daylight hours of today and will trend highest in the open waters due to greater fetch. Waves are expected to build to as large as 3 to 5 feet following the front's passage tonight and a Small Craft Advisory will probably be needed. Behind the front, a trough lingers over Lake Erie through Sunday night and will be accompanied by westerly winds around 15 to 25 knots veering to northwesterly. A ridge will build from the Mid MS Valley on Monday and then crest generally eastward across Lake Erie Monday night. This will cause northwesterly winds around 15 to 25 knots to back to southwesterly. Waves as large as 4 to 8 feet are expected on Sunday through Monday night, especially east of The Islands.

Another cold front should sweep eastward across Lake Erie on Tuesday through Tuesday night and cause southwesterly winds around 15 to 25 knots to veer toward northwesterly. Waves as large as 4 to 8 feet should persist. Behind the front, a stronger ridge should affect Lake Erie on Wednesday through Thursday as the core of the ridge moves from the north-central U.S. toward the Mid OH Valley. This should cause westerly to northwesterly winds around 10 to 20 knots to back gradually toward southwesterly. Waves as large as 3 to 5 feet are forecast, especially east of The Islands.

CLIMATE
It is expected to get very warm on Saturday, December 9th, with temperatures approaching record high levels. Here are the records for Saturday:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie

12-09 60(1952) 60(1952) 62(1952) 62(1952) 64(1952) 65(1885)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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