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LEZ144 Expires:202312072115;;058372 Fzus51 Kcle 071449 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 949 am est Thu dec 7 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez143>146-072115- reno beach to the islands oh-the islands to vermilion oh- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- 949 am est Thu dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of sprinkles late this morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 43 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 080556 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1256 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure over the upper Midwest moves over the northern Great Lakes by tonight. A stronger area of low pressure moves into the central Great Lakes Saturday afternoon with its cold front moving eastward across the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure moves eastward across the region on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High level cloud cover will move west to east across the region this morning with an axis of ridging at the middle levels of the atmosphere. As this ridge shifts east of the region it will allow some low level moisture to increase on a LLJ. This increased moisture and sunshine should allow for the development of some cumulus which may become broken to overcast across NW OH by the afternoon. This increased cloud cover likely keeps the low level jet from mixing efficiently to the surface.
So this should keep wind gusts under control with speeds remaining under 30 mph.

Temperatures through sunrise wont fall all that much with only a 2-4 degree drop from current levels. Highs today should be into the 50's areawide. Increasing cloud cover and a southerly breeze overnight will keep lows in the 40's tonight.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Rain chances increase throughout the day Saturday as isentropic ascent deepens ahead of a cold front approaching from the west as deepening low pressure lifts into the northern Great Lakes.
Widespread rain will develop in at least the eastern three quarters of the CWA by Saturday evening which will continue into Sunday as low pressure develops over the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and moves northeast along the cold front. LLJ will likely be most robust across eastern zones late Saturday into early Sunday where PoPs and QPF are highest; periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are likely during this time. Not too concerned about flooding since it will be a longer duration event and FFG guidance is relatively high, but may need to keep an eye on the most responsive creeks and rivers across the CWA.

Cold air advection on the backside of the cold front will result in a transition to a rain/snow mix Sunday afternoon and all snow by Sunday night as 850mb temps drop to as low as -7 to -10C. Still some uncertainty in the lake-induced instability, but a few inches of snow accumulation are possible overnight Sunday, primarily across the snowbelt region and especially in interior NW PA.

Temps will be well above normal Saturday with maximum temps in the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s expected in the warm sector. Saturday night's lows will fall into the mid to upper 30s. Expect much cooler temps on Sunday thanks to the cold front; highs will remain in the low to mid 40s. Sunday night's lows will be in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Any lingering lake effect precip should taper off throughout the day Monday as high pressure ushers drier air in from the west. The forecast is dry starting Monday evening and this trend should continue through at least Tuesday evening. A few snow showers are possible as an upper trough and weak cold front clip the northeastern portion of the CWA, but the best forcing and resulting precip chances may remain to the east of the local area. High pressure and dry weather should return by Thursday morning.

Don't expect temperatures to fluctuate too much next week with highs generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. High level cloud cover moves west to east through mi/late morning.
We then wait to see the coverage of some low level VFR cumulus during the afternoon hours across NW OH. Still a bit of uncertainty on how fast these move eastward through the afternoon. Current thinking is that this cloud cover over NW OH may drop to 3500-5000 feet.

South to southwest winds increase through the morning with 10 to 15 knots common. The strongest winds will be located across NW OH where a low level jet will be located. This low level jet moves across NW OH through mid morning with some low level wind shear likely until surface winds increase with deeper mixing.

Outlook...Non-VFR in isolated/scattered showers Saturday. Non- VFR continues Saturday night into Sunday in widespread rain. As the system exits to the east, lake effect snow may produce non- VFR conditions across NE OH into NW PA Sunday night and Monday.

MARINE
Southwest winds to around 20 knots and waves of 2 to 5 feet will continue in the eastern basin of Lake Erie through early evening and a Small Craft Advisory remains in place from Willowick OH to Ripley NY. Starting to see a slight decline in wind speeds as of this writing (~3 PM EST), so may be able to cancel early if this trend continues. South to southwest winds relax to 10 to 15 knots tonight which should persist through Friday night with the exception of a brief period of enhanced wind speeds in the open waters Friday afternoon. Southerly winds increase to 15 to 20 knots in response to an approaching cold front Saturday, which may result in the next opportunity for a Small Craft Advisory if winds trend higher with the enhancement of downsloping. Winds may diminish as the cold front crosses the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, but Small Craft Advisories will be needed as winds shift to the northwest and increase to around 20 knots by Sunday evening. Headlines will likely continue through Monday, especially in the eastern basin where flow will be onshore.

CLIMATE
It is expected to get very warm on Saturday, December 9th, with temperatures approaching record high levels. Here are the records for Saturday:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie

12-09 60(1952) 60(1952) 62(1952) 62(1952) 64(1952) 65(1885)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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