Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seconsett Island, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:13PM Monday December 16, 2019 4:51 AM EST (09:51 UTC) Moonrise 10:04PMMoonset 11:46AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 343 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm est this afternoon...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow and sleet. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu and Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri and Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 343 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will cross the waters today. Low pressure develops across the tennessee valley this afternoon, and will track across the mid atlc states before moving off the coast overnight, passing across the southern waters Tue into Tue night. The low and arctic front will push across, heading offshore Wed evening. Winds shift to nw and increase to gale force Wed night and continue through Thu. Winds gradually diminish Thu night into early Fri, but higher gusts will linger. The high will slowly cross the waters late Fri into next weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seconsett Island, MA
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location: 41.54, -70.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 160925 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 425 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS.

A weak ridge of high pressure brings dry weather into this evening. Low pressure passing south of our region will bring snow and ice to the region overnight into Tuesday evening. A major Arctic blast moves in Wednesday night, accompanied by strong wind gusts, possible snow squalls, and very low wind chills. Dry and cold weather Thursday into Saturday. Low chances for snow showers Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

425 AM Update .

A brief ridge of high pressure builds over the region today. The result will be quiet weather with much less wind than yesterday. We will see an increase in mid/high level cloudiness especially south of the MA Turnpike in advance of low pressure. Highs will be in the 30s, but with much less wind compared to yesterday certainly not a bad day.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/.

Highlights .

* Accumulating snow/ice significantly impacts the Tue AM commute near and especially south of the MA Turnpike

* 2-5" of snow seem reasonable with the higher most likely near the MA Turnpike. Light icing possible south of Pike.

* Ptype likely changes to rain southeast of the Bos-Pvd corridor Tue afternoon, but should change back to light ice/snow Tue night

Details .

Tonight Through Tuesday night .

Dry weather should generally prevail through the evening, but clouds will be lowering and thickening ahead of low pressure approaching from the southwest. We have high confidence that snow/ice will impact the Tuesday AM commute near and especially south of the MA Turnpike. Across northern MA, it is more uncertain, but they may escape with just light snow overspreading the region between 5 and 8 am.

Low pressure approaching from the southwest will increase the forcing for ascent. Snow should overspread most of the region from south to north between 1 and 7 am Tue. Across northern MA, they might be able to escape with just some light snow/flurries during most of the Tue am commute before intensity increases. Areas near and south of the MA Turnpike will likely see a significant impact to the AM commute. A modest southerly LLJ develops and results in a band of strong frontogenesis with good snowgrowth. Moderate to perhaps briefly heavy snow may be falling at 1"+ per hour toward daybreak. However, warming mid levels should result in the duration of that short-lived across much of CT/RI and SE MA. Nonetheless, may see a quick burst of 2 to 4 inches of snow and then a change to sleet/freezing rain as warmer air aloft moves into the region. Mainly light icing is possible generally south of the MA Turnpike on top of the snow. We may have to watch for a narrow swath of one tenth to two tenths of inch in a narrow corridor of CT into northwest RI, if the warmer guidance aloft verifies but probably does not result in any significant issues. Ptype should change to rain for a time during the afternoon southeast of a Boston to Providence corridor.

Still uncertainty regarding axis of heaviest QPF along with specific snow/ice amounts. Overall, we are thinking that this is a 2 to 5" snow event with the higher amounts more likely near the MA Pike. This is where we are more confident in the heavier QPF along with thermal profiles remaining cold enough to support snow for an extended period of time. Areas near the NH border, there is more uncertainty in whether the heavier QPF makes it that far north.

We do expect steadier snow to overspread northern MA Tuesday morning. However, they may not get the burst of strong forcing that area further south can expect. The frontogenesis does weaken a bit as it moves north. This is a result of strong northern stream energy that cuts off the better forcing/lift as the surface low is forced east. We still think that light to moderate snow will impact this region through Tuesday afternoon as a result of modest lift/saturation. In fact, light snow may linger well into Tuesday evening, as a weak inverted trough may keep things going. In fact, while areas southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor probably change to rain for a time colder air will work back in behind the low Tue night. This should allow ptype change back to ice and light snow, so something will have to keep an eye on with later forecasts.

So in a nutshell, our best estimate is for 2 to 5 inches of snow with the higher amounts in the vicinity of the MA Turnpike. The biggest concern is the Tuesday AM commute, near and especially south of the MA Turnpike where snow may be falling moderate to heavy before changing to ice and rain along the immediate coast. Further north, the snow arrives later and probably with less intensity. However, it will continue through the afternoon and probably into the evening. With that said, Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for the entire region, except for the Cape/Islands.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Highlights .

* Scattered snow showers late Wed afternoon into early Wed night with some snow squalls possible.

* Major Arctic blast comes in Wed night, accompanied by strong gusty winds and Wind Chill Indices from -10 to -20 degrees in central and western sections. Details .

Tuesday night . Lingering light snow and rain comes to an end from west to east by around midnight, except on outer Cape Cod, where a mix of rain and snow could linger overnight. Lows in the 20s, except 30 to 35 Cape Cod and the Islands.

Wednesday . Skies will be partly cloudy with some widely scattered snow showers across the higher terrain and possibly across Cape Cod and the Islands. A major Arctic cold front will approach western areas late in the afternoon.

Wednesday night . A major Arctic cold front will blast across the region before midnight. it may be accompanied by a band of snow squalls. BUFKIT soundings and modeled winds aloft show a 3 to 6 hour window of very strong wind gusts . perhaps 40 to 50+ mph . after the front passes. Gales likely over the coastal waters. 850 mb temperatures will dive to about -23C across the region. Surface temperatures will plummet to 0 to 10 above, except 10 to 15 in RI and southeast MA. Wind Chill Indices will drop to 0 to -8 in eastern MA, RI, and northern CT . and to -10 to -20 in central and western MA, where Wind Chill Advisories may be needed.

Thursday through Friday .

Expecting dry conditions with the frigid air mass in place and high pressure advancing eastward from the Ohio Valley. Highs Thursday will remain in the teens in western areas and only reach the lower to mid 20s in northern CT, RI, and southeast MA. It will still be windy, especially over the coastal waters. Wind Chill Indices will range from 5 below zero to 10 above zero all day. Bundle up!

It should be noted that the ECMWF is more pronounced with the upper low than other models and correspondingly spins up a surface low over the waters well east of southern New England. ECMWF ensembles are farther east than the operational run. Will need to keep an eye on this in case the trend is for any snow showers to back into eastern MA as a result of that potential system.

Another super cold night is expected Thursday night. Lows again in the single digits and teens, except could get a degree or two below zero in Franklin County, MA and could be in the lower 20s over the Islands. At least winds will be significantly diminished Thursday night.

Some moderation in temperatures is expected Friday, with highs in the 20s, with lower 30s Cape Cod and the Islands.

Saturday and Sunday . The high pressure area moves offshore Saturday. Significant model disagreement on whether weak low pressure develops over the region by Sunday. For now, have increasing cloudiness Saturday night and Sunday with a chance of snow showers . possibly rain showers near the coast . by Sunday. This is low confidence at this point. Still cold, with highs in the 30s both days and lows mainly in the 20s.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/ .

0025z TAF Update:

Through 00z Monday . High confidence.

Tonight . High confidence.

VFR conditions. W/WNW winds still gusty around 30-35 kt early, though steady decrease in wind gusts to 20-22 kts overnight as pressure gradient slackens.

Monday . High confidence. VFR with lightening/easing winds as ridge builds in. Expecting a gradual lowering/thickening of cloudiness late day.

Monday Night . Moderate confidence.

VFR to deteriorate to MVFR-IFR after 05z with snow and wintry mix. Snow may fall at moderate-intensity or even briefly heavy for a time by daybreak N of ORH-BAF-BED. Should see transition from snow to wintry mix (or snow to rain towards the coast) though only moderate confidence on timing p-type changeovers. Winds become NE 6-10 kts.

Tuesday . Moderate confidence.

Mainly IFR to MVFR. Snow to wintry mix in the interior with cold rain towards SE Mass, Providence into Cape Cod will eventually transition back to light snow by Tuesday evening. Best chance of slickened runways N/W of I-95 where wintry weather is the most prolonged. N/NE winds become N-NW 5-10 kts.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/ .

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/ .

Gale warnings continue on most waters with rough seas. Decreasing trends to winds and seas over the next 24 hrs, with existing gale warnings eventually to be replaced with SCAs. E/NE winds then increase Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front approaches the southern coast.

Tonight: W/NW winds at gales thru 3 or 4 AM across the outermost waters, then decreasing 20 to 30 kts. Seas decreasing from 8-12 ft to 6-10 ft, highest offshore. Good visibility.

Monday: W/NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts (highest offshore/eastern) decrease to 5-10 kts. Seas 6-8 ft, decrease below 5 ft by midday to 2-4 ft levels by early Monday evening. Good visibility.

Monday Night: Light winds early become E/NE around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts southern waters. Seas around 2-4 ft. Wintry mix toward the southern waters after midnight.

Tuesday: Probable period of SCAs. E/ENE winds 10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts eastern offshore waters. Seas build to 5-8 ft on southern/southeastern waters. Wintry mix to rain with visibility 1-3 miles.

Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/ .

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ002>004. MA . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ007-013>021. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ002>006-008>012-026. RI . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for RIZ002>007. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for RIZ001. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231- 232-251. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ233>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ250- 254>256.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/GAF NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . GAF AVIATION . Loconto/GAF MARINE . Frank/Loconto/GAF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 3 mi67 min W 6 1021 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 9 mi52 min 33°F 42°F1022 hPa (+3.0)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 13 mi32 min 18 G 21 42°F1021.8 hPa
44090 23 mi52 min 45°F3 ft
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 28 mi52 min W 8 G 13 33°F 43°F1022.2 hPa (+3.4)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi52 min WNW 20 G 22 33°F 1022.3 hPa (+2.4)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 36 mi58 min 33°F 42°F1022.3 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 37 mi52 min W 13 G 16 33°F 1022 hPa (+2.9)
FRXM3 37 mi58 min 33°F 17°F
PRUR1 42 mi52 min 32°F 15°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 43 mi58 min W 9.9 G 12 32°F 39°F1022 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 44 mi67 min WNW 7 31°F 1022 hPa16°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 45 mi52 min WNW 6 G 12 32°F 1022.7 hPa (+2.5)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 46 mi52 min W 11 G 13 31°F 41°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 48 mi58 min WNW 6 G 11 32°F 43°F1022.4 hPa
PVDR1 49 mi52 min W 6 G 12 32°F 1022.3 hPa (+2.8)14°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA8 mi67 minWNW 11 G 1810.00 miFair30°F12°F47%1021.3 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA11 mi59 minWNW 910.00 miFair32°F16°F52%1022 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA16 mi1.9 hrsW 610.00 miFair32°F10°F41%1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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1 day ago--SE21
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SE16SE16--SE16SW22
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2 days agoCalmCalmSE6S7S9SE11SE9SE13S7SE6SE6SE6SE6SE7SE9SE13
G21
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G22
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G21
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G31

Tide / Current Tables for Succonnesset Point, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Succonnesset Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:44 AM EST     1.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:29 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:45 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:53 PM EST     2.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:12 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:06 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.61.91.91.71.30.90.40.10.10.40.91.31.82.12.221.610.50.1-0.1-00.3

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:22 AM EST     -0.14 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:50 AM EST     -3.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     0.18 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:38 AM EST     3.22 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:46 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:09 PM EST     -3.96 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:13 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:12 PM EST     0.19 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:15 PM EST     3.61 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.11.8-2.2-3.4-3.7-3.2-2.11.12.32.83.23.22.81.7-2.2-3.4-3.9-3.7-2.8-12.12.93.43.6

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.