Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seconsett Island, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:09AMSunset 8:07PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 7:48 AM EDT (11:48 UTC) Moonrise 9:23AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 716 Am Edt Wed May 27 2020
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Areas of fog this morning, then patchy fog this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri and Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun and Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Wed May 27 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Areas of dense fog should lift by mid to late morning. High pressure will be in control through Thursday. By Thursday night, high pressure begins to move further east, with an increasing chance for showers. A cold front will bring scattered showers and Thunderstorms Friday into Saturday as it crosses the region. High pressure will build into the northeast over the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seconsett Island, MA
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location: 41.54, -70.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 271051 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 651 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure offshore will provide summerlike warmth and mugginess away from the coast for the rest of the work week. A cold front sweeps through Southern New England Saturday, bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. High pressure will bring drier and cooler weather Sunday through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

645 AM UPDATE .

Circulation around the offshore high pressure brings a south to southwest flow off the 55 degree ocean water into Srn New England. This air has dew points in the upper 50s and around 60, so its travel over the ocean cooled it to near saturation. The result was low clouds and fog.

Stratus expanded to cover much of the area south of the Mass Pike, and also extended up the CT Valley to the VT/NH border. The low clouds created visibility at or below 1/2 mile in much of RI and SE Mass.

Now that the sun has come up, expectation is that the fog and stratus will thin out, turning the cloudy/foggy day into a sunny day. Along the South Coast and wherever the airflow is off the water expect daytime temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Farther inland, sunshine will heat the air into the 80s and possibly around 90.

No changes planned to the forecast, except for extending the Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM.

Previous discussion .

Highlights .

* Areas of dense fog this morning across Eastern MA, RI and south coast to dissipate shortly after sunrise. * Very warm and muggy day in store, cooler on the south coast

NT microphysics imagery shows the deck of marine stratus spreading north from the south coast up Narragansett Bay and the MA coastal plains. Boston live cam shows the fog bank hugging the Eastern MA coast but have yet to encroach into the city and metrowest. Some low stratus has even spread northwards up the CT River valley. Therefore, there is currently a SPS for patchy dense fog along parts of Northern CT into the MA coastal plains and along the Eastern MA coast. The fog should rapidly dissipate with sunrise from much of the interior away from the Cape and South Coast. For the Cape and the Islands, the low stratus may hang on till mid or late morning, especially for Nantucket. Otherwise, much of Southern New England will see mostly clear skies.

For Wednesday and Thursday, NAEFS shows temperatures and height fields between 500 and 850mb either at the 99th percentile or outside of model climatology! Model guidances are consistent in showing an anomalous 591 Dm upper level ridge just southeast of Southern New England, which means that the predominant flow will be southwest. Moreover, Bufkit soundings show most locations away from the immediate South Coast and the Cape mixing up to 850mb. With good mixing, derived surface highs by taking the Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate from 850mb. Models are consistent in showing a +15 to +16C 850mb air mass across the area. SPC sounding climatology for ALB and CHH shows that the 159 Dm height at 850mb is above 90th percentile. Applying DALR, this yields highs in the mid to upper 80s away from the immediate south coast and the Cape and Islands. This includes places like Boston on the Eastern MA coast, which should see highs in the mid to upper 80s thanks to the southwest winds keeping the sea breeze at bay. Locales north of the MA Pike have the best chance of reaching the 90s thanks to further heating from downslope effect.

It is not out of the question that even Boston may hit 90 degrees. The normal high for BOS is around 70 degrees, so we will be running 15 to 20 degrees above normal. On average, BOS records its first 90 degree day on Jun 8, so if we hit 90 in BOS, then it will be 2 weeks ahead of schedule. Dew point in the low 60s will make for a muggy day, although part of the 20-25 kt 850mb jet that overspreads much of the area beginning late afternoon should provide some relief. With mixing up to 850mb for most locations, expect SW winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph especially in Eastern MA and RI from the afternoon onwards. And for those seeking relief from the heat, the best bet will be along the immediate South Coast and Narragansett Bay thanks to onshore flow off waters that are still in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. Tonight .

* Drizzle possible towards daybreak on Thursday especially over southeast MA *

850mb jet continues through the overnight hours. With the continued southwest flow near the surface and warm, moist air with dew point in the low 60s being advected over relatively cold waters, expect a redevelopment of low stratus over the immediate south coast and then spreading north overnight. But the coverage of drizzle or even a spot shower will be greater on Wednesday night than on Tuesday night. This is because while the 925-850mb relative humidity is between 50 to 60 percent on Tuesday night, it increases to 80 percent by late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, especially towards daybreak. Despite PWATs of around 1 inch, deep moisture is lacking as 700-500mb RH is less than 20 percent. So main precipitation type will be drizzle or a stray shower amidst misty or foggy conditions, especially in southeast MA towards daybreak on Thursday.

Thursday .

* Another warm and very muggy day with some showers possible over Western MA/CT by late afternoon *

25-30 kt 850mb jet continues to be in control over much of Southern New England. Expect another warm and muggy day with 590 Dm upper ridge axis and surface high pressure in control. There will likely be more clouds than on Wednesday, however, as 700-500mb RH field will be on the rise to between 60 and 80 percent by Thursday afternoon thanks to the 500mb ridge axis moving east. A look at the 925-850mb RH shows near saturation with RH of between 80 and 90 percent over interior MA/CT. PWATs will also be on the increase, with values rising to between 1.5 to 2 inches. A look at the SPC sounding climatology for ALB and CHH shows PWATs to be above 90th percentile for this time of the year. Despite the favorable conditions for moisture, the large scale forcing for ascent is still well to our west. To our west, there will be two areas of closed off upper lows, one over Manitoba/Ontario and the other over Oklahoma/Arkansas. Eventually, the northern stream will dominate and swing an upper level trough over New England this weekend. So for Thursday, currently only expecting a few showers especially over the interior areas with the main story being the increased cloud cover and mugginess with dew points rising into the mid 60s. Between the cloud cover and a more moist air mass, daytime highs are expected to be lower than on Wednesday, although it may feel more uncomfortable.

Overall, with a predominant southwest flow, again expect most areas away from the immediate south coast to reach the 80s with afternoon 850mb temperatures of +12 to +14C. This will again include locales on the Eastern MA coast as a stout southwest flow will likely suppress sea breeze development. Locales around Narragansett Bay and the Cape should see highs in the 70s. If clouds don't erode those temperatures will be difficult to produce, but, with a predominant southwesterly flow we should be capable of mixing them out.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Big Picture .

Offshore high pressure maintains unseasonably high contour values over MA-RI-CT Thursday night and Friday. The surface layer shows a south-southwest flow at the same time. This suggests the deep-layer remains warmer than normal during Thursday night-Friday. Northern shortwave and low pressure from the Mid-South merge Friday, then move over New England Saturday. A broad trough then brings lower than normal heights by early next week. Temperatures will trend to seasonable or a little below at that time.

Mass fields are similar through Saturday, then diverge in their handling of the Northeast trough. Forecast confidence is moderate.

Daily Concerns .

Thursday night-Friday .

Airmass flowing into Srn New England will contain high PW values, roughly 1.5 to 2.0 inches. These values are about as high as we normally see in late May. Expect increased dew points/humidity during this time. Record values for the end of May have been in the upper 60s and low 70s, so expect dew points in the low to mid 60s. Ocean temperatures are generally in the 50s, and these high dew points are flowing over the colder water. This suggests the potential for dense fog along the coast Thursday night and Friday morning.

Cold front moves into Western NY/PA Friday, with right entrance region of the upper jet overhead. This suggests the best support for convection, showers and scattered tstms, will be west of Srn New England. LI values will be restrictive along the South and East coasts, possibly due to fog/low clouds. Meanwhile inland values dig below zero with values near -5 along the Berkshires . convection forming in NY could hold together long enough to move into Western/Central MA or adjacent CT Friday afternoon/evening.

Dew points suggest Thursday night min temps in the 60s. Forecast mixed layer values support max temps 80-85 in Nrn Mass, and 75-80 in Nrn CT/Nrn RI/Interior SE MA. Cooler temperatures near the South Coast.

Friday night-Saturday .

Cold front sweeps east Friday night and crosses MA-RI-CT Saturday. Expect showers and scattered thunder, with the best chance Friday night and early Saturday. Showers may linger in eastern MA through Saturday evening depending on the forward speed of the cold front. Meanwhile, drier air moves in from the west starting late in the day Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday .

Surface high pressure builds east and favors dry weather. However, cold advection moves in aloft late Sunday through Monday, and shows signs of destabilizing the airmass enough for diurnal clouds and showers on Monday. Mixed layer reaches to 800 mb Sunday and Monday, with temps near 0C supporting max sfc temps in the mid 60s to around 70.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today . High confidence away from the south coast, lower for Cape terminals. Most sites that aren't already VFR will improve to VFR conditions by 16z. Cape and the Island terminals, especially ACK will be the slowest to improve to VFR and could remain MVFR all morning. Southwest winds 5-10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon.

Tonight . High confidence on trends, lower on exact timing. VFR conditions for most areas away from the immediate south coast through Thursday 00z, with terminals along the south coast and Cape and the Islands deteriorating to IFR conditions with marine stratus redeveloping. Interior terminals see gradual lowering of cigs to MVFR/IFR with coastal terminals seeing IFR/LIFR conditions by 06z. Southwest winds 5-10 kt.

Thursday . Moderate confidence. MVFR conditions for most locations with VFR for eastern terminals. Southwest winds turning southerly at 5 to 10 kt except up to 15 kt at the coast.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Moderate on timing.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Moderate on timing.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA, patchy BR.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Conditions trending to VFR in the afternoon. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. 4 AM Update .

Today through Thursday . High confidence. S to SW winds will continue through tonight, but winds/seas should generally remain below SCA thresholds. Some choppy seas may develop this afternoon though with some lower 20 knot wind gusts near shore. Areas of dense fog will be possible during the morning hours.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MAZ020>024. RI . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for RIZ003>008. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Chai NEAR TERM . WTB/Chai SHORT TERM . Chai LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/Chai MARINE . WTB/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 3 mi63 min SSW 1 58°F 1024 hPa58°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 9 mi48 min 55°F 56°F1024.6 hPa (+0.7)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 13 mi28 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 54°F 55°F1024.4 hPa
44090 23 mi48 min 55°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 28 mi48 min SW 1.9 G 5.1 55°F 59°F1025.1 hPa (+1.0)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi48 min SSW 5.1 G 5.1 1025.5 hPa (+0.8)
CHTM3 31 mi60 min SSW 7 G 8 56°F 65°F1023.9 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 36 mi48 min 59°F 60°F1024.7 hPa (+0.8)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 37 mi48 min SW 7 G 8 57°F 1024.4 hPa (+0.8)
FRXM3 37 mi48 min 58°F 58°F
PRUR1 42 mi126 min 64°F 64°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 43 mi48 min S 4.1 G 5.1 56°F 52°F1024.5 hPa (+0.9)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 44 mi63 min SW 2.9 57°F 1024 hPa57°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 45 mi48 min SW 2.9 G 7 57°F 1025 hPa (+1.0)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 46 mi48 min 56°F 60°F1024.3 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 48 mi48 min SSW 5.1 G 7 57°F 60°F1024.6 hPa (+1.0)
PVDR1 49 mi48 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 59°F 1024.4 hPa (+0.9)59°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA8 mi63 minWSW 70.25 miFog57°F57°F100%1024.4 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA11 mi55 minSSW 60.25 miFog57°F57°F100%1024.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA16 mi52 minSSW 81.00 miFog/Mist60°F57°F93%1023.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NE5E6CalmSE8SE9S10S10S10S10S8S8SW7SW7SW11W8SW7SW6W7W8W7SW4SW7SW7
1 day agoNE8E8E8E7SE7SE10SE6E4E4S4E3SE5SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Succonnesset Point, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Succonnesset Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:50 AM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:04 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:34 PM EDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:17 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.41.722.11.91.510.60.200.10.50.81.21.61.81.81.61.20.80.50.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:22 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:09 AM EDT     -3.72 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:04 AM EDT     0.17 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:14 PM EDT     3.33 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:13 PM EDT     -0.13 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:40 PM EDT     -3.43 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     0.14 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.61.6-2-3.2-3.7-3.5-2.5-0.62.12.83.13.33.22.71.3-2.3-3.3-3.4-2.8-1.51.52.22.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.