Tuesday, July16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waterbury, CT

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Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:26PM Tuesday July 16, 2019 11:17 PM EDT (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 8:28PMMoonset 5:07AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1051 Pm Edt Tue Jul 16 2019
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1051 Pm Edt Tue Jul 16 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves through overnight. Low pressure then develops to the southwest into Wednesday. The low is expected to move over the area Wednesday night, as a cold front approaches from the north in advance of building high pressure over new england. The cold front moves through Thursday, followed by building high pressure that will remain centered over the southeast into the weekend. Another weak cold front moves slowly through the area Saturday night. The front stalls to our south Sunday with a wave of low pressure developing along it.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waterbury, CT
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location: 41.54, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 170054
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
854 pm edt Tue jul 16 2019

Synopsis
A warm front moves through tonight. Low pressure then develops
to the southwest into Wednesday. The low is expected to move
over the area Wednesday night, as a cold front approaches from
the north in advance of building high pressure over new england.

The cold front moves through Thursday, followed by building high
pressure that will remain centered over the southeast into the
weekend. Another weak cold front moves slowly through the area
Saturday night. The front stalls to our south Sunday with a wave
of low pressure developing along it possibly impacting the
region early next work week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Pops increased for orange county mainly for showers and
thunderstorms. One complex of showers and thunderstorms is
moving northeast of orange county, leaving just some showers
across orange county through mid evening.

A warm front will move through tonight, and with cloud cover
as well as continued SW flow allowing for warm air advection,
muggy conditions will return. Forecast temperatures only fall
to the low to mid 70s, and dew points return into the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

Otherwise, not expecting much shower and thunderstorm activity
for the remainder of tonight as instability decreases with
decreasing temperatures in agreement with mesoscale models
showing a decrease in reflectivity after 00z. Temperatures are
relatively warmer along the coast and with warm air advection
and more moist low level environment, instability is more across
the coast for overnight. Therefore did not go totally dry and
kept the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the
region for late tonight into early Wednesday.

A weak convectively induced vorticity maximum upstream is
expected to pass through tonight, which combined with the warm
front may lead to isolated thunderstorms overnight. Timing and
placement of any showers and thunderstorms will be difficult to
pinpoint, but with increased moisture a brief heavy downpour may
be possible as well.

So with this forcing and the warm front boundary that will be
moving through, so there are enough factors there to keep a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
Heights will fall on Wednesday as an upper trough to the north
phases with a short wave trough containing the remnants of
tropical cyclone barry. Despite an associated increase in cloud
cover, strengthening west-southwest flow will lead to continued
warm advection, with temperatures rising into the 80s to lower
90s. Expect uncomfortable conditions, with a few locales in
northeastern nj and nyc achieving heat indices in the afternoon
around 95 degrees as dew points remain in the low to mid 70s.

The quick increase in temperatures will also allow any remaining
cinh to erode by afternoon, and between a thermal trough
developing across the interior and sea breezes near the coast,
there may be enough forcing for ascent for thunderstorms to
develop at any time.

Most shower and thunderstorm activity will develop by late
afternoon into the evening as the trough nears and a surface low
deepens across the coast. The remnants of barry will bring a
significant increase in deep layer moisture, with forecast pwat
values well in excess of 2.00-2.25". Although weak mid level
lapse rates may limit updraft strength, low level lapse rates
are expected to steepen, with dcape values in the 500-1000 j kg
range, a subtle increase in low level flow, and evaporative
cooling likely supporting downdrafts in storms that do develop.

Additional storms will likely be triggered along the subsequent
outflow boundaries. Expect heavy downpours and potentially
strong to severe wind gusts in any storms that develop.

Storms then develop into a complex or complexes overnight as
flow aloft becomes parallel to the developing surface low.

Training of storms and convective nature may lead to an enhanced
threat for localized flooding as well. Refer to the hydrology
section for more information.

Muggy conditions will continue Wednesday night as lows only fall
into the 70s, and dew points remain in the 70s as well.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Wednesday.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Weak low pressure associated with the remnants of barry shifts
through the area on Thursday. Model average suggests that the the
center of this passes over or just to our south. This in turn brings
the wind forecast trend more towards an east to east-northeast
direction. Even if this doesn't pan out, plenty of cloud cover
should prevent temperatures from rising as high as previously
forecast. Won't go with a mav met blend just yet for high temps, but
will trend towards that direction.

Regarding rainfall potential, the general trend will be for chances
lowering as the day progresses with the low drifting east. Pwats in
this airmass will be high at the start of the day - perhaps near 2.5
inches. This, combined with a light steering flow presents at least
a low chance of flash flooding with heavy rainfall. Rain chances
continue to diminish through Thursday night with the low moving
farther out to sea. Dry weather is expected by sunrise.

Heights aloft build on Friday along with surface ridging. Models
show some subsidence with some capping along with relatively low
moisture. Will go with a dry forecast. The subsidence will also have
impacts on high temperatures. Looks like mixing would be limited to
900mb. Highs therefore reaching the mid 90s for the urban corridor
of NE nj, lower 90s for the city and lower hudson valley, and 85-90
for most of LI and ct. All models show a band of 6-12c 850mb
dewpoints shifting through during the late morning to mid-afternoon
hours. This would promote lowering surface dewpoints with mixing of
the boundary layer, however the surface flow will be sw, offsetting
this. Still think surface dewpoints could mix out a little. This
leads to maximum heat indices averaging in the upper 90s to around
100 for all but ct and most of li.

Mixing to 850 mb is more probable on Saturday, and temps at this
level are expected to average around 23c. 850mb dewpoints will be
higher this time, around 14-17c, making it more difficult for
surface dewpoints to lower, but this could be offset by more of a
wsw surface flow. Expecting highs around 100 for NE nj, and some
locations within the city, and 90s elsewhere. Heat index values will
likely reach at least advisory levels everywhere, and a good portion
of the forecast area could potentially reach warning levels. Dry
weather should continue with relatively low rh through the
atmospheric column.

A weak cold front is progged to move through late Saturday
night, but this will do little to send any relief from the heat.

850mb temps progged at 21-22c with a westerly flow could have
temperatures getting to near 100 once again for some areas on
Sunday, but for now will go with highs mostly in the mid to
upper 90s. Some areas could reach heat warning levels once
again, and most areas would probably reach advisory criteria.

A wave of low pressure moves in on Monday, with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms along with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tuesday looks dry for now with highs a few degrees cooler than on
Monday.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr through Wednesday afternoon.

Light southwest winds tonight, increasing Wednesday morning to
10 to 15 kt. Southerly coastal sea breezes likely Wednesday
afternoon.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms moving into orange county
should dissipate before reaching the nyc nj metro terminals,
showers and thunderstorms are possible well north and west of
nyc tomorrow afternoon. Showers and possible thunderstorms
likely for nyc nj metro after 22-00z as weak low pressure and
the moisture remnants of barry approach from the west.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi53 min SW 6 G 8 79°F 72°F1015.6 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT8 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair76°F66°F74%1017.6 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT9 mi24 minS 610.00 miFair78°F66°F67%1015.5 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi24 minSSW 410.00 miFair78°F71°F79%1016.1 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT23 mi24 minS 510.00 miFair79°F66°F67%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from OXC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4SW5S7S755SW7SW8S8S5SW6S534Calm
1 day agoNW8NW4N5N5NW6N8N4CalmCalmNW4NW4NW7NW8W9NW7W6N66W5N8N8NE5NE4Calm
2 days agoSE3S3CalmCalmSW3CalmSW3W3Calm44W6NW9NW8
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NW9NW9NW5NW4N5N7NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Shelton
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Tue -- 12:54 AM EDT     5.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:25 PM EDT     4.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:39 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:37 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.25.75.44.63.72.51.40.4-0.1-012.544.94.94.53.72.81.810.40.41.32.7

Tide / Current Tables for New Haven (city dock), Connecticut
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New Haven (city dock)
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Tue -- 05:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:51 AM EDT     6.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:39 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 05:52 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.65.74.32.71.10.1-0.20.51.73.24.65.765.54.53.11.80.70.40.92.13.65.16.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.