Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waterbury, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) A strong frontal system brings periods of rain and the potential for thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into tonight. Urban and poor drainage flooding is possible. Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph are also expected.

2) A drier and colder airmass settles into the area for Tuesday through Thursday.

3) A frontal boundary will move across the region this weekend bring another chance of precipitation.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A strong frontal system impacts the region this afternoon into tonight with strong, gusty southerly winds, moderate to locally heavy rainfall, and the potential for gusty thunderstorms, especially across inland areas.

A deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes will track into eastern Canada tonight. A warm front associated with this system continues to slowly lift north across parts of the region this afternoon, which will then be followed by a strong cold front tonight. With much of the area now in the warm sector, a strong and gusty southerly flow has developed and showers are expecting to become more scattered as the afternoon moves on. A low level jet of 50-60 kt moves into the region, and these higher winds may mix to the surface, with the potential of gusts near or just over 40 kt. As a result, A wind advisory is now in effect for the entire region through 4am Tuesday. The low level jet increases further early this evening and into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, with wind of 70-90 kt at 3K ft possible. A surface based inversion slowly weakens this evening and these higher winds may mix to the surface with any stronger convection that develops ahead of the cold front.
The Storm Prediction Center keeps the area remains in a general thunderstorm risk, with the slight risk of severe thunderstorms just to the west, through western New Jersey, and a marginal risk across eastern New Jersey into Nassau county, and the Lower Hudson Valley. Any strong storms could produce severe wind gusts to around 50kt this evening in the marginal risk area, and maintained the gusty enhanced wording inland areas. While storms will be moving rather quickly moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible in a short time, and minor urban and poor drainage flooding may result, and the entire area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Rainfall will generally be 3/4 to 1 1/2 inches, with higher amounts of 2 to locally 2.5 inches across southern CT. Given this higher rainfall potential across southern Connecticut have maintained the Flood Watch with a localized flash flood threat. Fast responding smaller rivers and stream may approach or exceed bankfull, however the larger and more widespread riverine flood threat is not expected. The front is expected to move east of the region by 4-5am.

KEY MESSAGE 2
High pressure gradually builds into the region on Tuesday, settling over the region Wednesday, then departs Thursday. The high will bring in a colder and drier airmass behind the frontal system of Monday. Temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday night will run about 10 degrees below normal for mid-March. Gusty conditions likely continue on Tuesday, and will produce wind chill values in the 30s for much of the day. Warmer temperatures return for the end of the week.

Key Message 3...
Another frontal system is expected to approach Friday into move across there region this weekend. Right now, there remains some timing issues with exactly when the front moves across the area. Expect at least some chance POPs this weekend, with rain across the southern half of the CWA and some light snow or a rain/snow across the northern half as the front moves through.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
***High Impact Aviation Weather Event through Midnight Tonight***

A strong frontal system impacts the terminals through this evening, before moving through city terminals towards midnight. The front should clear eastern terminals towards 06-07z.

Conditions are mainly VLIFR and LIFR for the coastal / eastern terminals, and IFR and MVFR most elsewhere. Some VFR conditions have occurred at some NJ terminals, but should be limited to just a few hours late this afternoon. Sub VFR conditions continue through the evening, with pockets of VLIFR and LIFR at the immediate coast at times for KJFK, KISP, KBDR, and KGON with 1/4SM visibilities at times.

Showers will gradually increase in coverage into this evening with locally heavy downpours at times. The probability of a thunderstorm increases this evening and is included in TEMPO groups for all terminals through about 4-5Z.

SE-S winds gradually increase for the remainder of this afternoon.
The flow will veer more to the S into the afternoon with winds increasing further with gusts 25-35 kt. The strongest winds will likely end up at coastal terminals. Gusts 35-40 kt expected to develop toward 21Z, especially close to the coast. A few higher gusts are possible just prior to the frontal passage. Winds will then become W with the cold frontal passage from about 04Z to 08Z.
Winds immediately behind the cold front will also feature G30-40 kt, before gradually falling off within a couple of hours.

LLWS with winds at 2kft 50-60 kt through this afternoon. The strongest LLWS appears likely this evening when winds at 2kft may be 60-70 kt, especially at coastal and eastern most terminals.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for flight category changes mainly with respect to visibilities, and for showers and possible thunderstorms through this evening.


OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday: VFR. W gusts 25-30 kt.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Friday-Friday night: VFR during the day, with possible sub VFR in SHRA at night.

Saturday: Sub VFR possible Sat AM, otherwise mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A strong frontal system will bring an increasing, and gusty, southerly flow to the forecast waters through tonight. While Small craft conditions continue on the waters into early this afternoon, southerly gusts are expected to increase and reach gale force later this afternoon. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all the waters today into tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely ahead of a strong cold front late this afternoon into this evening. The thunderstorms could bring higher wind gust to the water surface with the potential of local gusts to 50 kt.

Westerly winds behind the cold front passage will begin to diminish especially by late tonight, with gusts on the non-ocean waters potentially lowering to SCA levels. Ocean gusts, especially on the eastern waters fall below gale force by Tuesday morning. Small craft conditions likely linger on all waters through Tuesday with 25 kt gusts, but could potentially continue into Wednesday on the ocean waters with lingering 5ft seas. Sub-SCA conditions then expected thereafter.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for CTZ005>012.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>075-078>081- 176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340- 345-350-353-355.
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.