Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Balmville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday August 13, 2020 4:33 AM EDT (08:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:38AMMoonset 3:43PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 402 Am Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Today..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms, mainly this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 402 Am Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A slow moving cold front will pass south of the waters this morning, then push slightly farther south Friday and Saturday as high pressure tries to build from the north. The high may move east on Sunday, allowing a warm front to approach, followed by a cold front on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Balmville, NY
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location: 41.54, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 130745 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 345 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A slowly moving cold front will remain just offshore today and push slightly farther south Friday and Saturday as high pressure tries to build in from the north. The high moves east Sunday as a warm front approaches. A cold front passes through the region Monday, followed by another weak cold front Tuesday. High pressure returns Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Cold front will be just offshore with a slightly cooler and drier airmass than yesterday. Instability won't be as high this time around, however still high enough CAPE to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lift will come from sea breezes, any outflow boundaries, and a shortwave in the afternoon. PWATs will be near 2 inches, the flow aloft is weak, so any showers that develop will move slowly - posing an isolated flash flood threat. Best overall chances of rainfall will be over LI, NYC, coastal NE NJ, and S Westchester and S CT. High temperatures will be at or slightly above normal.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Any shower activity should dissipate by around sunset with diminishing instability. A wave of low pressure then moves along the stalled frontal boundary to our south. This could bring an increase of moisture and lift, but thinking that any showers in association with this feature will remain offshore tonight.

For Friday, the wave of low pressure to the south moves a little bit closer to us. Low chances of showers and storms from this, mainly over southern sections of the forecast area. Convergent flow over western sections could also trigger some showers and storms. The steering flow for any storm cells should be a little stronger this time, and overall moisture content of the airmass will be lower this time around, so no concerns of flash flooding at this point. High temperatures will once again be around normal or slightly above it.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The upper flow across the Continental United States is less amplified than previous forecasts resulting in a briefly stalled frontal boundary south of the region Friday night as a ridge builds to the north across the northeast and eastern Canada. This high and upper ridge slides east Sunday as the synoptic flow does begin to amplify with a high amplitude ridge across the western states and extending into the Canadian Pacific while a large trough digs into the northern plains and upper midwest. The surface front passes north as a warm front Sunday, and with the digging trough into the beginning of next week a couple of cold frontal passages are expected Monday and Tuesday. With the upper trough remaining Wednesday unsettled weather will be possible, at this time with mainly afternoon convection.

Near seasonal normal temperatures are expected through the extended forecast period.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A weak cold front will pass to the south overnight and then dissipate by this afternoon. Light N to NE flow in the wake of the frontal passage will become SE to S by late morning or early afternoon.

Sct afternoon tstms expected, more so in/around the NYC metros and KISP. These could produce brief heavy rain and IFR vsby.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Late tonight. VFR. Friday. Chance of showers/tstms with MVFR or lower conditions, mainly NYC metros/KSWF. Saturday. VFR. Sunday and Monday. Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower in any showers/tstms.

MARINE. Quiet conds to start, then as E flow increases Fri into Sat, could see SCA conds develop on the ocean water and last for quite some time as we remain in a tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and a series of weak lows passing to the south. E winds Sat into Sat night should reach 20-25 sustained with gusts close to 30 kt.

Ocean seas during this time should reach 3-5 ft late Fri night, and peak at 5-7 ft Sat eve, then remain elevated into Sunday night on all the ocean waters, and out east in to daytime Mon.

It is possible that these conds could last longer than forecast as models trend toward stronger and more persistent E-NE flow.

HYDROLOGY. A low and localized flash flood threat exists this afternoon and evening from isolated to scattered slow-moving convection.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Friday into early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JC/MET NEAR TERM . JC SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . MET AVIATION . Goodman MARINE . Goodman/MET HYDROLOGY . JC/MET


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 20 mi64 min NE 1.9 68°F 1020 hPa64°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 33 mi64 min Calm 67°F 1019 hPa63°F
TKPN6 33 mi46 min Calm G 0 67°F 81°F1019.4 hPa63°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 46 mi49 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 77°F 74°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi49 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 76°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi46 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 80°F1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newburgh / Stewart, NY7 mi49 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F60°F73%1019.3 hPa
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY9 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair67°F64°F91%1018.2 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY15 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair65°F64°F97%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSWF

Wind History from SWF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6W5CalmCalmCalm555555N8N5CalmW4444E74E6E6E6Calm
1 day ago5CalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW8SW12SW6SW12SW12SW8
G15
SW12SW12SW12S844CalmCalmCalmCalmNW7Calm
2 days agoCalmW5W5W7W3W4CalmSW8W7W7W10W12W8W6W7E12E65555555

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:30 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:43 AM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:20 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.10.90.91.31.82.12.32.32.21.91.41.10.90.80.81.322.52.82.82.82.52.1

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:16 AM EDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     0.44 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:27 PM EDT     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:08 PM EDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.10.40.40.30.1-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.4-00.50.70.60.40.1-0.3-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.