Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Teaticket, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 5:18PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 1:51 AM EST (06:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:13AMMoonset 1:37PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ233 Vineyard Sound- 116 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am est this morning through Wednesday morning...
Rest of tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night through Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri through Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres over nrn new england brings dry weather and light winds tonight. A low pres will bring rain and gusty winds on Tue. High pres then builds into the area, bringing gusty W to nw winds the rest of this week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Teaticket, MA
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location: 41.55, -70.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 180544 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1244 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over the Great Lakes Tuesday and its attending warm front will spread rain across southern New England. The exception will be for a few hours of a wintry mix in the afternoon across the high terrain of western and central Massachusetts. The attending cold front sweeps across the region Tuesday night ushering in drier and colder weather Wednesday with the core of the cold air settling over the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Moderating temperatures over the weekend along with dry weather as high pressure sets up over the Mid Atlantic region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/.

1240 AM Update .

High pressure centered across northern New England will continue to result in light winds/seasonably chilly temperatures very early this morning. Mid and high level cloudiness will continue to increase through daybreak with warm advection aloft, but it will remain dry. The increase in clouds will slow down the radiational cooling process with most locations remaining in the 20s through daybreak. It will be a few degrees milder in some of the urban centers and portions of the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/.

No major changes to the forecast for Tuesday. Still expecting a primary low pressure to pass by well to our north. 17/12Z guidance still showed a weak secondary low pressure trying to get organized towards the south coast of New England Tuesday evening. It looks like a case of too little, too late, if you are a snow-lover. Expecting warmer air to overspread our region during Tuesday, eventually changing all precipitation over to rain.

Some of the higher resolution guidance, particularly the 3 km NAM, holds onto some low level cold air a little longer across the higher terrain of central and western MA. Thus, there is a risk for some light icing. The timing of this would be between the morning and evening commutes. This would minimize the impact of any light icing.

The short duration of snowfall should limit snow accumulations, too. Not expecting much more than 1-2" inches across the higher terrain.

Winds at 925 mb and 950 mb show a low-level southeast jet near NYC at 7 AM, then moving along the South Coast and increasing to 40-50 kt by late in the day. Expect increasing southeast winds during the day. Although not all of that wind aloft will reach the surface, it is reasonable to expect gusts 25-30 kt along the coast.

Precipitation diminishes Tuesday evening, with dry weather expected after midnight across most of the region.

Above normal temperatures through this period.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/.

Highlights .

* Dry weather likely through the weekend

* Colder trend with coldest air arriving Thu night into early Fri

* Temperatures likely rebound back into 40s over the weekend

Details .

Wednesday/Thursday/Friday .

Post frontal airmass overspreads the region Wed with dry weather and strengthening low level cold air advection with 925 mb temps lowering from -2C at 12z Wed to -8C by 00z Thu. Given delay of cold air highs Wed near normal with highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s, mid 30s high terrain. Given the cold air advection and steepening low level lapse rates expecting blustery NW winds with gusts up to 35 mph per model soundings. Thus it will feel colder than the actual air temps. Even colder Thursday with 925 mb temps continuing to lower to about -12C to -13C, only supporting highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s, mid 20s high terrain. Cold wind chills as well given brisk west wind gusting up to 25 mph per model soundings.

Core of the cold air arrives Thu night into Fri morning as 925 mb temps lower to -15C to -16C. This will yield low temps late Thu night/early Fri morning in the single digits (possible below zero northwest MA per some guidance sources) and teens. Not record breaking but about 10 degs colder than normal and given our recent stretch of mild weather it will feel quite cold. Not much of temp rebound Fri with highs once again only in the upper 20s and lower 30s. As winds shift to the NNE Thu night into Fri morning could see some ocean effect snow showers across the outer Cape and Nantucket given trajectory of cold air (NNE flow) and relatively mild ocean temps in the low 40s supporting steep low level lapse rates. In addition developing low pressure off the southeast U.S. coast during this time may enhance the NNE flow into the Cape and Nantucket. Something to watch as late week approaches.

The Weekend .

Rising heights will support moderating temperatures with highs likely rebounding back into 40s along with dry weather and possibly lingering into Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06z update .

Today . Moderate to high confidence. VFR through 12z with MVFR conditions overspreading the region from west to east later this morning into mid afternoon. Further lowering to IFR levels should occur by late afternoon/early evening in many locations. Rain overspreads most locations from 15z to 19z. The exception is mainly the east slopes of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills, where ptype begins as a period of snow/ice with a minor accumulation possible. Ptype should change to rain in all these locations by early evening. Winds shift to SE this morning at 10 to 15 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots along the coast and in the high terrain.

Tonight . Moderate to high confidence. Low end MVFR-IFR conditions with localized LIFR conditions into the first half of the evening in showers, low clouds and fog. There will also be LLWS in association with a modest southerly LLJ. Improvement occurs by late this evening and especially after midnight from west to east as drier air works into the region.

Wednesday . High confidence. VFR. NW wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Tonight .

Canadian high pressure moves over the Maritimes by morning. Expect dry weather and good visibility. Light wind shifting from the northeast and east. Seas less than 5 feet.

Tuesday .

Increasing southeast wind through the day, with gusts 25 to 30 kt. Seas building to 5 to 9 feet on the exposed waters, highest east of Massachusetts. Rain developing, with visibility lowering to 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday night .

Some gusts to gale force across the eastern outer coastal waters during the evening. Winds diminish after midnight. Rough seas continue across the outer coastal waters.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ232>235-237-255. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ236. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ256.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/Nocera NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . Belk LONG TERM . Nocera AVIATION . Frank/Nocera MARINE . Belk/Nocera


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 3 mi67 min Calm 32°F 1031 hPa24°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi52 min 35°F 39°F1031.3 hPa (+1.6)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 16 mi52 min 12 G 14 1031.5 hPa (+1.7)
44090 24 mi22 min 40°F3 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 27 mi52 min ENE 17 G 18 1031.4 hPa (+1.8)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 31 mi52 min 37°F 38°F1031.2 hPa (+1.3)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 33 mi52 min 1031.8 hPa (+1.9)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 34 mi52 min 33°F 1031.7 hPa (+1.9)
FRXM3 34 mi58 min 33°F 21°F
PRUR1 39 mi52 min 35°F 22°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 40 mi52 min 34°F 35°F1031.2 hPa (+1.7)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 41 mi67 min ENE 6 31°F 1031 hPa21°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 41 mi52 min 33°F 1032 hPa (+1.6)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 44 mi58 min 35°F 39°F1031.6 hPa
PVDR1 46 mi52 min 31°F 1032 hPa (+1.7)17°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 47 mi52 min 1031.9 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA8 mi67 minENE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy30°F19°F64%1031.2 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA10 mi59 minNE 710.00 miFair31°F23°F72%1030.9 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi56 minNNE 310.00 miFair29°F21°F72%1030.9 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA23 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair24°F19°F81%1031.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7NW7NW10NW10N9
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E6NE7NE7NE4NE3NE3NE6--NE6NE6NE6NE6
1 day agoSW12
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W12W8W6W6W6W5W5CalmW3Calm
2 days agoNW10NW10NW10NW10NW10NW6NW4NW4W5W10--W9--SW12SW11SW9SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Falmouth Heights, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Falmouth Heights
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:17 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:33 AM EST     1.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:10 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:21 PM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.40.60.91.21.41.41.310.80.40.20.10.10.30.50.81.11.21.21.10.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EST     3.76 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:04 AM EST     -0.18 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:57 AM EST     -4.21 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:17 AM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:38 PM EST     3.96 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:54 PM EST     -0.19 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:34 PM EST     -3.92 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:48 PM EST     0.13 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.63.83.52.80.8-2.9-3.9-4.2-3.9-3.1-1.52.43.43.93.93.62.8-0.9-3.1-3.8-3.9-3.4-2.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.