Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brinckerhoff, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:18PM Monday October 14, 2019 9:02 PM EDT (01:02 UTC) Moonrise 7:05PMMoonset 7:35AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 649 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw around 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 649 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A dry cold frontal passage this evening will be followed by building high pressure through Tuesday. A frontal system will approach on Wednesday, with a rapidly intensifying coastal low tracking just southeast of the area Wednesday night, and into the canadian maritimes Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure builds in for next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brinckerhoff, NY
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location: 41.55, -73.89     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 150014
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
814 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
A dry cold frontal passage this evening will be followed by
building high pressure through Tuesday. A frontal system will
approach on Wednesday, with a rapidly intensifying coastal low
tracking just southeast of the area Wednesday night, and into
the canadian maritimes Thursday into Thursday night. High
pressure builds in for next weekend. Another frontal system
approaches for early next week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Shortwave energy rounding the base of an upper low over eastern
canada will send a cold front through the area dry this evening.

High pressure over the ohio valley then builds east through the
night.

Expect few clouds with SW winds veering around to the NW at
less than 10 mph. Stratus that developed across extreme SE ct
has moved ne, and is expected to remain east once the front
comes through late this evening.

Overnight lows will be right around normal, generally in the
40s, except around 50 for the nyc metro.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Shortwave ridging between one departing upper low over eastern
canada and an amplifying trough over the upper midwest into the
great lakes, will result in dry, seasonably cool conditions. Any
clouds will be on the increase late Tuesday night as a frontal
system approaches from the west.

A light northerly flow in the morning will become onshore in
the afternoon as surface high pressure works offshore.

Highs on Tuesday will top out in the lower 60s. Lows Tuesday
night will likely vary considerably due to good radiational
cooling, from the lower 50s in metro ny, to the mid 30s to
lower 40s elsewhere. With a light onshore flow and increasing
low-level moisture, fog may be a possibility as well as frost.

Guidance still showing dew point depressions significant enough
to leave mention of fog out at this time.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Main story during this period will be a strong frontal
system developing coastal low affecting the region late Wednesday
into Thursday.

Main features will be a strongly amplifying northern stream
shortwave digging through the us canada border of the rockies this
afternoon. This feature will develop a closed upper low that slides
into the upper great lakes Tue tue night, then phases with the
southern stream Wednesday morning. The phasing and deepening closed
low will approach the region Wednesday, and then pivoting through
the area Wed night into Thu morning and up the new england coast
into the canadian maritimes Thu afternoon thru Thu night. At the
surface, low pressure associated with the northern stream closed low
will track east through the great lakes Tue into wed, with its
associated strong cold front pushing towards the region late
Wednesday. At the same time, phasing jet energy will begin to
intensify a southern wave of low pressure tracking NE ahead of the
front off the mid-atlantic coast; tracking just SE of LI Wed night.

This will become the primary intense low pressure by Thursday
morning as it tracks up the new england coast.

There is good general model agreement in the above scenario, but
still some spread on intensity of the developing coastal low as it
tracks SE of LI and into new england, and to a lesser extent spread
in how close or over the area the low tracks. The sensitivity of
this appear to be with evolution of a central pac closed low, and
downstream amplification of west coast ridging and northern stream
shortwave, and then the eventual phasing with southern stream. The
main implication for our area would be modest, in terms of
amount axis of rain and strength of winds ahead and behind system.

This should come into better focus over the next 24-48 hrs.

Strong deep layer forcing with this system and a deep subtropical
pac and gulf moisture connection (+1 1 2-2 std pwats) point towards
a heavy rain event late Wed through Wed night. Strong forcing,
closed low vort energy moving through aloft, and weak surface
instability point to potential for some deeper convection and
embedded thunder. This brings likelihood for 1 to 2 inches of
rain, with locally 2-4" inches of rain possible. Rain should
quickly taper off late Wed night as trough axis pivots east.

Deep cyclonic flow on Thursday will result in considerable cloud
cover with scattered showers sprinkles, particularly interior.

Can't even rule out a wet snow flake or two across the far nw
hills in any heavier showers as cold pool moves through aloft
and coolest airmass of the season works in.

In terms of winds, ahead of the low a period of E SE winds 20 to 25
mph gusts 30-35 mph (peak winds 25-30 gusts to 40 mph possible
across eastern li) likely along the coastal plain wed
afternoon evening. Then in the wake of low pressure W NW winds of 20
to 30 mph and gusts to 40 to 45 mph likely late Wed night into
Thursday. There is potential for wind advisory 30-35 mph and gusts
to 50 mph if stronger low development verifies. Windy
conditions will continue into Thursday night, although gust
potential likely decreases with decreased instability.

Cyclonic flow will be slow to relent through the day Friday. Nw
winds will be weakening, but still a a breezy day. Another below
seasonable day with sct-bkn afternoon strato-cu.

Then a gradual moderation to seasonable and then above seasonable
temps and fair weather this weekend as upper ridging build in and
high pressure builds to the south of the region.

Next chance of rain looks to be some time early next week, as
another deep trough develops over the central us, with an
increasingly moist and active flow deep SW flow developing into the
eastern us. Indication are a slow moving frontal system or systems
approaching for Monday Tuesday.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr as a dry cold front will passes through this evening,
followed by high pressure. High confidence in winds shifting w
to wnw initially with fropa, then veering nnw overnight. Coastal
sea breezes expected in the afternoon. Except for near term
winds this eve at kbdr, speeds should be all under 10 kt.

Outlook for 00z Wednesday through Saturday
Tuesday night Vfr.

Wednesday Rain developing. Conds quickly lowering to ifr
late afternoon evening, lingering past midnight at kgon.

Se winds g25kt. Llws also possible along the coast late
afternoon evening, mainly at kisp kgon.

Thursday Vfr. NW winds g25-35kt.

Friday Vfr. NW winds g20-25kt mainly am.

Saturday Vfr.

Marine
The pressure gradient remains relatively weak during the short
term through Tuesday night. Conditions are expected to remain
below SCA across all local waters.

Se winds increase across the waters on Wed ahead of an
approaching cold front and developing low pressure. Sca
conditions expected on all waters by early Wed afternoon into
wed evening. A brief period of SE gales likely on the ocean
waters east of moriches inlet as the low approaches, and
possible for the rest of the ocean waters and the eastern
sound bays.

Winds expected to shift to the NW Wed evening, with w-nw gales
likely on the ocean waters late Wed night, and on all waters for
Thursday. Gale conditions should fall to SCA Thu eve night,
with SCA wind gusts likely subsiding Friday morning into
afternoon. Ocean seas will rapidly build Wed aft eve, but should
fall below SCA Fri afternoon as winds weaken as they will be
wind wave dominant.

Hydrology
A significant rainfall of 1-2 inches is likely Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, with localized swaths of 2-4
inches possible. The bulk of the rainfall is expected in a 6-9
hr period late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

Urban, poor drainage, and low lying flooding is expected. There
is a low probability of flash flooding along a few of the fast
responding small rivers and streams in NE nj and the lower
hudson valley if the higher rainfall amounts are realized.

Additionally, localized flash flooding will also be an issue
for coastal roads if heaviest rain coincides with the Wed night
high tides.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures of generally 2 to 2 1 2 ft above astronomical
are needed for minor flooding during the times of high tide late
wed eve into Wed night. There is quite a bit of spread in the
ensemble guidance, partly due to some differences in the
potential strength of low pressure wind fields, and equally so
due to timing of a wind shift from e-se winds to NW as low
pressure moves by. At this point, model consensus would
indicate potential for widespread minor coastal flooding, with a
low probability for localized moderate impacts where wave
action combines with elevated water levels.

If the heaviest rain coincides with the Wed night high tide,
more widespread flooding could be experienced than would
normally be expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off the
air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Nv dw
near term... Nv dw
short term... Dw
long term... Nv
aviation... Goodman
marine... Nv dw
hydrology... Nv dw
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 20 mi92 min WSW 6 68°F 1013 hPa44°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 32 mi92 min Calm 60°F 1014 hPa47°F
TKPN6 32 mi62 min N 7 G 13 60°F 61°F1015.5 hPa (+3.9)45°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi42 min SSW 7.8 G 12 63°F 1 ft58°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi68 min SW 8 G 12 63°F 63°F1013.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi47 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 32°F53°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi69 minW 910.00 miFair62°F39°F44%1013.8 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY11 mi2.3 hrsW 810.00 miClear63°F42°F49%1013.9 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY20 mi68 minWNW 410.00 miFair60°F39°F48%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW9SW10SW7--SW9SW10SW7W4W10W7W9NW5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN5NE6N7N9N5NE4CalmCalmNW3SE3CalmNE4N3
2 days agoNE7N6N3NE4CalmCalmNE3N4N3NE3N4N5N56CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
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Mon -- 01:05 AM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:45 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:17 PM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.23.12.61.91.10.60.20.10.61.62.53.13.33.32.92.21.50.90.50.20.41.22.1

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:16 AM EDT     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:58 AM EDT     0.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:42 PM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:19 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:19 PM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.3-0.2-0.7-1.1-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.50.10.810.80.5-0-0.6-1-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.20.40.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.