Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brinckerhoff, NY
December 1, 2023 8:32 PM EST (01:32 UTC)
Sunrise 7:01AM Sunset 4:28PM Moonrise 9:15PM Moonset 12:05PM
ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 613 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain, mainly this evening. Patchy fog late this evening and early morning. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain, mainly this evening. Patchy fog late this evening and early morning. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 613 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. A weak wave of low pressure will impact the region through tonight. Another low moving toward the great lakes on Sunday will weaken, with a secondary low forming south of long island on Sunday. The low pressure lifts northeast of the area Sunday night. A trough of low pressure lingers on Monday with high pressure returning for Tuesday. Another low develops off the middle atlantic coast on Wednesday.
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. A weak wave of low pressure will impact the region through tonight. Another low moving toward the great lakes on Sunday will weaken, with a secondary low forming south of long island on Sunday. The low pressure lifts northeast of the area Sunday night. A trough of low pressure lingers on Monday with high pressure returning for Tuesday. Another low develops off the middle atlantic coast on Wednesday.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 012329 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 629 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
SYNOPSIS
A weak wave of low pressure will impact the region through tonight.
Another low moving toward the Great Lakes on Sunday will weaken, with a secondary low forming south of Long Island on Sunday. The low pressure lifts northeast of the area Sunday night. A trough of low pressure lingers on Monday with high pressure returning for Tuesday. Another wave of low pressure develops off the Middle Atlantic coast Wednesday, followed by high pressure for Thursday. The next frontal system may approach next Friday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Steady rain will continue across the region this evening associated with isentropic lift and mid-level shortwave energy.
The rain is progressive and appears an hour or two quicker than most of the guidance and regional radar mosaic shows this well.
Have sped up the timing a bit with this update, but think there may be some light rain filling in on the backside briefly before fully tapering off. Will show drying and lower PoPs occurring 9-10 pm from NYC metro on west to 11pm-1am out east.
Low level moisture lingers late tonight into early Saturday morning with potential of some drizzle or patchy fog.
Otherwise, it will remain mostly cloudy to overcast through day break. Lows will generally be in the 40s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low level moisture becomes even more shallow on Saturday along with weaker lift due to a mid-level ridge nosing in. Because of this, a dry forecast is expected much of Saturday, with possible breaks in clouds in the afternoon, or just mid/high level clouds. Temperatures will still be above normal in the mid 50s.
Rain is expected for Saturday night after midnight into Sunday night as primary low pressure weakens to the west and a new center forms just south of Long Island Sunday. Rain will likely be widespread as there are strong signals for warm air advection allowing for more lift. Some 12Z models also have strong FGEN occurring later on Sunday because of the strong temperature gradient caused by cooler temperatures to our north. Models have ample moisture available, as well, with PWATs ranging between 1-1.4". The 90th percentile for PWATs is around 0.95" with the max moving average at 1.4". Despite this, not enough rain is expected to fall to lead to flooding concerns.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
There has not been too much change with the forecast reasoning in the extended. The global ensemble guidance is in good agreement on the pattern over the northeast being dominated by mean upper troughing through much of the upcoming week. The NBM was used for this forecast update.
The highlights for the long term are:
*Low pressure will continue moving northeast through New England Sunday night with rain ending from south to north through the night.
*Mainly dry conditions are then forecast Monday through the end of the week.
*Temperatures will start out above normal Monday before trending to seasonable or slightly below for the rest of the week.
Rain associated with low pressure will continue Sunday evening, but diminishes from south to north through the night. Dry conditions are expected to return by the morning rush hour on Monday. Skies will likely remain mostly cloudy through Monday with a lingering trough of low pressure of the area and broad cyclonic flow aloft. Highs on Monday range from the upper 40s inland to the lower 50s near the coast. Monday will also be breezy with potential of 20-25 mph gusts, especially closer to the coast.
High pressure briefly returns for Tuesday. The flow aloft within the upper trough begins to amplify Tuesday night as energy is progged to dive southeastward towards the coast. A large majority of the global models and ensembles keep low pressure development well south and east off the Middle Atlantic coast late Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, there are some ensembles members that have an inverted trough near the area or the low close enough to support a slight chance (20 percent) PoP. Based on the currently modeled pattern, the upper trough amplification occurs too far offshore for any impacts to the region. Temperatures Tuesday will be in the middle and upper 40s and then only upper 30s to low 40s on Wednesday.
The mean upper trough should push offshore later Wednesday into Thursday. The deterministic runs diverge for the end of the week, but ensemble means indicate a near zonal flow aloft with some potential of a frontal system to approach on Friday. The forecast remains dry with surface high pressure largely in control. Highs ins the upper 30s to lower 40s Thursday trend closer to normal on Friday.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Offshore high pressure gives way to a wave of low pressure moving near the local area tonight into early Saturday.
Rain tapers off overnight into early Saturday morning. Fog is expected to develop overnight into Saturday morning, and then fog is expected to dissipate.
MVFR lowering to IFR overnight, lasting into Sat mrng. Some localized sub-IFR is forecast outside of NYC terminals.
Improvement back to MVFR and eventually VFR expected during the day Saturday. CIGs back down to MVFR and lower aft 00Z Sun.
Winds generally a 5-10 kt S-SW flow but with some variable directions at times, especially overnight into early Saturday morning as well as late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of MVFR and IFR could be 1-3 hours off. Some fluctuation between VFR, MVFR and IFR is possible tonight into Saturday.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday night: Rain likely with MVFR to IFR likely.
Sunday: Rain expected. MVFR to IFR likely. W winds G15-20kt late at night.
Monday: Mainly VFR. W winds G20-25kt, becoming more NW at night.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. N winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Conditions remain sub-SCA through Sunday with the exception of the eastern ocean reaching about 5 feet for around 6 hours late Saturday into early Sunday. Based on collaboration with BOX, no SCA has been issued at this time. However. if the forecast holds one may issue one with the next main forecast package.
SCA wind gusts are likely on the ocean Sunday night and then all waters on Monday. Ocean seas will also build to 5-6 ft during this time frame, likely not subsiding below 5 ft until early Tuesday morning. Lingering SCA wind gusts are possible on the ocean Monday night as well. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected Tuesday through Wednesday with potential of SCA gusts Wednesday night.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns are expected through Saturday.
0.5-1" is expected Saturday night into Sunday night. There are no hydrologic concerns given this is a relatively long duration event.
No hydrologic impacts are expected next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 629 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
SYNOPSIS
A weak wave of low pressure will impact the region through tonight.
Another low moving toward the Great Lakes on Sunday will weaken, with a secondary low forming south of Long Island on Sunday. The low pressure lifts northeast of the area Sunday night. A trough of low pressure lingers on Monday with high pressure returning for Tuesday. Another wave of low pressure develops off the Middle Atlantic coast Wednesday, followed by high pressure for Thursday. The next frontal system may approach next Friday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Steady rain will continue across the region this evening associated with isentropic lift and mid-level shortwave energy.
The rain is progressive and appears an hour or two quicker than most of the guidance and regional radar mosaic shows this well.
Have sped up the timing a bit with this update, but think there may be some light rain filling in on the backside briefly before fully tapering off. Will show drying and lower PoPs occurring 9-10 pm from NYC metro on west to 11pm-1am out east.
Low level moisture lingers late tonight into early Saturday morning with potential of some drizzle or patchy fog.
Otherwise, it will remain mostly cloudy to overcast through day break. Lows will generally be in the 40s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low level moisture becomes even more shallow on Saturday along with weaker lift due to a mid-level ridge nosing in. Because of this, a dry forecast is expected much of Saturday, with possible breaks in clouds in the afternoon, or just mid/high level clouds. Temperatures will still be above normal in the mid 50s.
Rain is expected for Saturday night after midnight into Sunday night as primary low pressure weakens to the west and a new center forms just south of Long Island Sunday. Rain will likely be widespread as there are strong signals for warm air advection allowing for more lift. Some 12Z models also have strong FGEN occurring later on Sunday because of the strong temperature gradient caused by cooler temperatures to our north. Models have ample moisture available, as well, with PWATs ranging between 1-1.4". The 90th percentile for PWATs is around 0.95" with the max moving average at 1.4". Despite this, not enough rain is expected to fall to lead to flooding concerns.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
There has not been too much change with the forecast reasoning in the extended. The global ensemble guidance is in good agreement on the pattern over the northeast being dominated by mean upper troughing through much of the upcoming week. The NBM was used for this forecast update.
The highlights for the long term are:
*Low pressure will continue moving northeast through New England Sunday night with rain ending from south to north through the night.
*Mainly dry conditions are then forecast Monday through the end of the week.
*Temperatures will start out above normal Monday before trending to seasonable or slightly below for the rest of the week.
Rain associated with low pressure will continue Sunday evening, but diminishes from south to north through the night. Dry conditions are expected to return by the morning rush hour on Monday. Skies will likely remain mostly cloudy through Monday with a lingering trough of low pressure of the area and broad cyclonic flow aloft. Highs on Monday range from the upper 40s inland to the lower 50s near the coast. Monday will also be breezy with potential of 20-25 mph gusts, especially closer to the coast.
High pressure briefly returns for Tuesday. The flow aloft within the upper trough begins to amplify Tuesday night as energy is progged to dive southeastward towards the coast. A large majority of the global models and ensembles keep low pressure development well south and east off the Middle Atlantic coast late Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, there are some ensembles members that have an inverted trough near the area or the low close enough to support a slight chance (20 percent) PoP. Based on the currently modeled pattern, the upper trough amplification occurs too far offshore for any impacts to the region. Temperatures Tuesday will be in the middle and upper 40s and then only upper 30s to low 40s on Wednesday.
The mean upper trough should push offshore later Wednesday into Thursday. The deterministic runs diverge for the end of the week, but ensemble means indicate a near zonal flow aloft with some potential of a frontal system to approach on Friday. The forecast remains dry with surface high pressure largely in control. Highs ins the upper 30s to lower 40s Thursday trend closer to normal on Friday.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Offshore high pressure gives way to a wave of low pressure moving near the local area tonight into early Saturday.
Rain tapers off overnight into early Saturday morning. Fog is expected to develop overnight into Saturday morning, and then fog is expected to dissipate.
MVFR lowering to IFR overnight, lasting into Sat mrng. Some localized sub-IFR is forecast outside of NYC terminals.
Improvement back to MVFR and eventually VFR expected during the day Saturday. CIGs back down to MVFR and lower aft 00Z Sun.
Winds generally a 5-10 kt S-SW flow but with some variable directions at times, especially overnight into early Saturday morning as well as late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of MVFR and IFR could be 1-3 hours off. Some fluctuation between VFR, MVFR and IFR is possible tonight into Saturday.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday night: Rain likely with MVFR to IFR likely.
Sunday: Rain expected. MVFR to IFR likely. W winds G15-20kt late at night.
Monday: Mainly VFR. W winds G20-25kt, becoming more NW at night.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. N winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Conditions remain sub-SCA through Sunday with the exception of the eastern ocean reaching about 5 feet for around 6 hours late Saturday into early Sunday. Based on collaboration with BOX, no SCA has been issued at this time. However. if the forecast holds one may issue one with the next main forecast package.
SCA wind gusts are likely on the ocean Sunday night and then all waters on Monday. Ocean seas will also build to 5-6 ft during this time frame, likely not subsiding below 5 ft until early Tuesday morning. Lingering SCA wind gusts are possible on the ocean Monday night as well. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected Tuesday through Wednesday with potential of SCA gusts Wednesday night.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns are expected through Saturday.
0.5-1" is expected Saturday night into Sunday night. There are no hydrologic concerns given this is a relatively long duration event.
No hydrologic impacts are expected next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NPXN6 | 20 mi | 62 min | SSE 1.9 | 41°F | 30.09 | 40°F | ||
| ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY | 32 mi | 62 min | SE 1 | 42°F | 30.04 | 39°F | ||
| TKPN6 | 32 mi | 44 min | S 8G | 42°F | 39°F | 30.06 | 38°F | |
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 46 mi | 44 min | SW 8G | 46°F | 50°F | 30.04 | ||
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 47 mi | 32 min | SSW 9.7 | 46°F | 30.09 | 43°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPOU HUDSON VALLEY RGNL,NY | 6 sm | 39 min | calm | 4 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 43°F | 39°F | 87% | 30.06 |
| KSWF NEW YORK STEWART INTL,NY | 12 sm | 47 min | calm | 5 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 41°F | 39°F | 93% | 30.06 |
| KMGJ ORANGE COUNTY,NY | 20 sm | 38 min | calm | 4 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 39°F | 37°F | 93% | 30.04 |
Wind History from POU
(wind in knots)New Hamburg
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:48 AM EST 2.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 08:54 AM EST 0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:06 AM EST Moonset
Fri -- 02:48 PM EST 3.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:26 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 08:14 PM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 09:49 PM EST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:48 AM EST 2.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 08:54 AM EST 0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:06 AM EST Moonset
Fri -- 02:48 PM EST 3.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:26 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 08:14 PM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 09:49 PM EST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 2.1 |
| 2 am |
| 2.5 |
| 3 am |
| 2.5 |
| 4 am |
| 2.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 3 |
| 3 pm |
| 3 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:15 AM EST 0.59 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:00 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:37 AM EST -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 10:10 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:04 AM EST Moonset
Fri -- 12:29 PM EST 0.84 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:35 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:27 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 07:14 PM EST -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:15 PM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 11:11 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:15 AM EST 0.59 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:00 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:37 AM EST -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 10:10 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:04 AM EST Moonset
Fri -- 12:29 PM EST 0.84 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:35 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:27 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 07:14 PM EST -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:15 PM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 11:11 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0 |
| 4 am |
| -0.5 |
| 5 am |
| -0.8 |
| 6 am |
| -1.1 |
| 7 am |
| -1.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.9 |
| 9 am |
| -0.5 |
| 10 am |
| -0.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.1 |
Upton, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE