Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brinckerhoff, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:27PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 11:06 AM EST (16:06 UTC) Moonrise 5:15PMMoonset 7:24AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 944 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm est this evening through late tonight...
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W early this afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow late this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ300 944 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak wave of low pressure passes offshore this morning. Arctic high pressure then builds across the waters late today into Thursday. The high shifts offshore Thursday night with low pressure approaching from the south Friday. This low passes through on Saturday with high pressure returning on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brinckerhoff, NY
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location: 41.55, -73.89     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 111548 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1048 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak wave of low pressure passes offshore this morning. Arctic high pressure then builds across the region late today into Thursday. The high shifts offshore Thursday night. A low pressure system approaches from the south Friday. Rainfall becomes likely late Friday and overnight with an all day rain event expected through Saturday. The low exits to the northeast late Saturday into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Snow bands have pushed east of New York City, Nassau county, and southwestern Connecticut, with accumulating snow still possible for points east of these locations. Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory as been cancelled for these areas, while they remain in effect for Suffolk county and central and southeastern Connecticut. An additional half inch to an inch may be possible for those areas still under the advisory. The HRRR seems to have a good handle on the snow, and timing of the bands indicate they push offshore by noon or sooner.

Clouds will gradually clear into the afternoon, but some locations especially near the coast may remain mostly cloudy. Highs will generally be in the middle and upper 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. A strong arctic high pressure builds into the region tonight and will settle over the northeast on Thursday. Most models have the high around 1040 mb as it settles overhead on Thursday. Upper trough axis swings across New England tonight with heights gradually rising on Thursday. NW winds will increase and gust 20-25 mph Wednesday night with clearing skies. Dry and cold conditions Wednesday through Thursday. Lows will fall into the teens inland and lower and middle 20s near the coast tonight. Wind chills will be in the teens. For Thursday, highs will be in the lower and middle 30s. Winds will be light with the high pressure overhead.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Surface high continues to shift offshore Thursday night allowing for southerly winds to advect in moisture and comparatively warmer conditions headed into the latter part of the week. Overhead cloudiness returns to the Lower Hudson Valley and temperatures rise into the mid 40s for the day Friday.. There is a slight chance of warm frontal showers in the late morning with rain chances increasing into the late afternoon and overnight hours. These showers are associated with a deepening low pressure system off the Carolina coast. Southwest to northeast upper level flow over the eastern seaboard will spur this low north off the coast of Long Island through the overnight hours Friday into Saturday. Model soundings show the sub-tropical airmass has precipitable water values between 1.00-1.20 inches which will provide ample moisture for the expected rainfall. Timing has the majority of the rain falling for the NYC metro and surrounding areas in the overnight hours then lingering through the day Saturday. Rainfall totals around 1 to 2 could cause some instances of nuisance flooding in pour drainage areas.

Upper level trough axis pivots across New York state Sunday as a drier and more stable airmass moves into the region. Clouds clear out and temperatures are again the in mid 40s. Though overnight with the northwest winds, lows will fall near freezing around the city with areas north expected to be in the upper 20s prior to sunrise. High pressure builds Monday with more clear skies. This is short lived as an upper level jet stream of 150 kts over New England quickly transits the ridge axis eastward. The next low pressure system of note enters the Ohio River valley Tuesday morning. Global models show the possibility of mixed precip ahead of the system, but regardless could likely see another all day rain event for Tuesday.

AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure builds toward the region this afternoon and tonight.

VFR with clearing skies expected this afternoon.

Winds will be from the N/NW around 5-10 kt before backing to the W and increasing in speed late this afternoon. A few gusts to 20-25 kt are possible late this afternoon, primarily at the city terminals. Winds then diminish as they veer to the NW once again tonight.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Winds will back toward the west, and increase late this afternoon.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Winds will back toward the west, and increase late this afternoon.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Winds will back toward the west, and increase late this afternoon.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Winds will back toward the west, and increase late this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: Winds will back toward the west.

KISP TAF Comments: MVFR improves to VFR by 17-18Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Thursday. VFR Friday and Friday night. VFR on Friday, then MVFR possible in developing rain Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain. LLWS possible. Sunday. Becoming VFR.

MARINE. A weak wave of low pressure passes offshore this morning. Winds on the waters for much of today will be below SCA levels. NW winds start increasing late in the afternoon and will increase above SCA levels tonight as arctic high pressure builds to the west. Ocean seas will remain elevated through tonight as well. Wind gusts on the ocean could come close to gale force tonight, but should fall short. Have extended the SCA on the ocean through tonight and issued a new SCA for the non-ocean waters tonight. The waters east of Moriches Inlet could see seas remain elevated into the morning, so the SCA has been extended until 15z for now. Winds weaken considerably on Thursday as high pressure settles over the waters.

Low pressure approaches Friday and impacts the waters Friday night into Saturday. Marine zones could be nearing SCA conditions Saturday morning through the afternoon as south winds increase to 20-25 mph. A coastal low enters the ocean waters from the south and seas increase 9-11 feet by the afternoon. Elevated waves remain through Sunday then relax by early next week.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic issues are expected with mainly snow this Wednesday morning.

A long duration rainfall event is possible beginning Friday night through late Saturday night. Total rainfall amounts range between 1- 2 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a chance of coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning. This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south shore back bays of Long Island, where even moderate coastal flooding is a possibility at least along the Nassau County bays. Minor flooding will also be possible along NY Harbor and parts of Western Long Island Sound. Confidence is not high at this point as the event is still a few days away, and shifts in storm's track and/or timing would change the flooding potential.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for CTZ007-008-011-012. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ078>081. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/16/DS NEAR TERM . JP/DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . DJ/16 AVIATION . BC/PW MARINE . DJ/16/DS HYDROLOGY . DJ/16/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 20 mi157 min E 1 29°F 1026 hPa27°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 32 mi157 min Calm 29°F 1025 hPa26°F
TKPN6 32 mi67 min Calm G 1 34°F 35°F1027 hPa (+2.0)22°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi97 min NNE 5.8 G 9.7 31°F 1 ft29°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi67 min NE 4.1 G 5.1
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi67 min NNE 3.9 G 7.8 32°F 32°F31°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi74 minWSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy29°F26°F89%1026 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY11 mi82 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy28°F26°F93%1026.1 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY20 mi73 minN 010.00 miOvercast30°F26°F85%1026 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4SW3SW5S4SW6N5SW3SE3CalmNW7NW6CalmN3NE4NE5N5NE9N4W3CalmCalmSW3SW3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmS3S5S3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmN4CalmE3CalmSE3CalmCalm
2 days agoSW3SW76S6
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S4SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:39 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:24 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:16 AM EST     3.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:26 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:49 PM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.21.50.80.30-00.51.52.433.33.22.92.21.40.70.2-0.1-00.61.52.22.6

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:09 AM EST     -1.22 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:23 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:43 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:03 AM EST     1.07 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:06 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:48 PM EST     -1.39 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:34 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:29 PM EST     0.77 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.2-1.1-0.8-0.40.20.81.10.90.60.1-0.6-1-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.9-0.40.30.70.70.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.