Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 7:04 AM   Moonset 11:28 PM

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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 1036 Am Edt Fri May 10 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure passes just south of the waters into tonight. Another low tracks through Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure returns on Monday before moving offshore into Tuesday. Another low may impact the waters during the middle of next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 101818 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 218 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure systems moves south of the area today, and further south and offshore tonight. A weak low approaches Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure returns on Monday before moving offshore into Tuesday. Another low may impact the region during the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Gloomy end to the workweek with a strung out wave of low pressure passing off the Mid Atlantic coast. Intermittent periods of rain, mostly light, persist much of the day. Expanding coverage this afternoon as the trough axis moves through, before conditions begin to dry out this evening. Rain should taper everywhere by midnight or just before. Additional QPF total perhaps up to a quarter inch.

With the rain, clouds, and onshore wind, temperatures run a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal for early to mid May. A few places in SE CT may approach 60 where rain will be minimized, but otherwise low to mid 50s can be expected elsewhere. An east breeze will be noticeable along the coast, adding to the chill.

Surface high pressure briefly returns in its wake and cloud cover diminishes considerably overnight, perhaps even becoming clear toward daybreak Saturday. Temperatures will get a few degrees below normal tonight, looks for lows to mainly be in the lower and middle 40s, with upper 40s in the metro.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The weekend should start off dry and rather pleasant, albeit a bit cool through at least the early afternoon on Saturday.
Temperatures will average a bit below normal with an onshore wind off the colder ocean. Most places should get into the lower and middle 60s for daytime maxes. Getting closer to evening look for clouds to begin to increase from the west with an introduction of slight chance of showers across far western sections before day's end.

For Saturday night look for a good deal of clouds further west, with more clouds getting further east as the night progresses. Went with consensus guidance with respect to PoPs with chance to slight chance PoPs from west to east. With the light onshore flow continuing ahead of a weakening frontal boundary look for temperatures to be a few degrees below normal with lows around 45 to 50.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A shortwave will begin to exit Sunday morning. Low pressure may pass offshore ahead of the shortwave with another weaker low hanging back over the northeast. There is some question surrounding how much surface ridging lingers over New England, which may keep higher probabilities of showers across the western half of the area. The atmosphere is stable so will just mention showers. Highs will primarily be in the mid/upper-50s.

There is good agreement among the deterministic and ensemble guidance for the trough to shift offshore Monday. A relatively flat ridge should settle over the northeast Monday, but may also linger into a portion of Tuesday, leading to a dry stretch with increased sunshine. With an approaching low to the west and an exiting high to the east Monday evening/night, south winds could become breezy with most 00Z showing a 35-45kt LLJ developing, likely aided by a southern stream upper-level jet shifting northward over the area.

Models have come into better agreement on a southern stream shortwave that moves out of the Plains Tuesday and tracks towards the east coast the middle of next week. An associated frontal system/low pressure should evolve somewhere near the Middle Atlantic. Based on the timing from 00Z guidance it appears the low passing to our south will give us the best chance of rain early Wednesday. High pressure gradually builds in, afterwards.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Weak high pressure builds in from the northeast this afternoon and tonight and remains over the Northeast through Saturday.

Conditions are improving over eastern terminals as clouds are scattering out there. Expect improvement to continue from northeast to southwest, with a forecast return to VFR by 21Z or sooner. Showers are also still possible, but they are expected to be light and have no impact to visibility, dissipating as they head into the high pressure.

East winds increase to around 10-15 kt. Gusts for the most part are more occasional to around 20 kt. Winds shift more NE this evening into tonight, then back to the E Saturday morning before sea breezes affect the terminals.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Conditions becoming VFR this afternoon, possibly a few hours earlier than is forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: VFR. SE winds 5 to 10 kt.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower in showers and t-storms. SW G15-20kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower in showers and t-storms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Small craft conditions across all waters today with gusts at 25 to 30 kt. For tonight sub small craft conditions should return to the non ocean waters, with small craft seas likely remaining on the ocean for the majority of tonight. Sub small craft conditions are expected with seas closer to 4 ft on the ocean for much of this weekend. South winds may increase Monday evening/early Tuesday, but currently keeping ocean waters just below 25 kt gusts. Ocean waters may briefly reach 5 feet during this time frame.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Minor coastal flooding continues Friday night, but coverage will be less than last night. Have maintained coastal flood advisories for the western south shore bays of Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, along with Southern Fairfield and Southern Westchester. Have chosen based on latest trends from taking an average of Stevens, ETSS, and ESTOFS to downgrade advisories to statements for Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and NE NJ coastal zones. Statements which were previously in effect for Southern Suffolk, NW Suffolk, Northern Nassau and Northern Queens have been discontinued as water levels have trended down and are no longer expected to meet minor benchmarks.

Saturday night may see one more night where minor benchmarks could be approached for Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, otherwise this latest round of minor coastal flooding should completely come to an end later in the weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-335-340.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338- 345.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.

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Middletown, Connecticut River, Connecticut, Tide feet

Rocky Hill
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Fri -- 04:00 AM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:48 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:38 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:45 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
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Rocky Hill, Connecticut, Tide feet

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