Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 9:59 AM   Moonset 12:55 AM

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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 705 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Today - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 foot at 7 seconds. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 foot at 7 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Wed night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 4 seconds and S 3 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers. Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Thu night and Fri - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 705 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Seas over the southeastern marine zones remain somewhat elevated in the 4 to 5 foot range but will gradually diminish early next week with high pressure building over the region. Rain chances increase middle of next week as another low pressure system passes to the east. Gale force winds possible Thursday as the low pressure passes by.

FXUS61 KBOX 131058 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 658 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
Mainly dry conditions today and turning milder with more seasonable temperatures as high pressure builds to the south. A warm front will bring scattered showers tonight followed by warm weather Tuesday, but a few showers are possible in the interior during the afternoon. A coastal storm lifting NE from the middle Atlantic coast may bring showers and cooler temperatures Wednesday, and unsettled weather could linger into Thursday as the low pressure is slow to depart. High pressure returns Friday then another system may bring more rain next Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Shortwave ridging moves into New Eng today with surface high pres south of New Eng. Dry air in the column to start the day will result in lots of sunshine this morning, then clouds will increase during the afternoon as warm advection increases ahead of an approaching warm front. A modest low level jet transports higher PWATs into New Eng from the west during the afternoon which may lead to a few showers in western MA mid-late afternoon, otherwise dry weather today. The S-SW flow will bring a milder airmass into SNE as 925 mb temps increase to 10-12C.
Highs should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s, but cooler along the immediate coast where sea-breezes develop.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Tonight...

Warm front will be moving into SNE tonight with PWATs increasing to 1-1.25". Deepening moisture plume ahead of the front moves across the region 00-06z which will bring scattered showers, especially north of the Pike where best forcing sets up. Then dry slot moves in behind the front 06-12z so shower activity will exit to the north and east overnight. S-SW winds and higher dewpoints advecting into the region will result in a milder night with lows upper 40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Warm sector airmass overspreads SNE on Tue with warm and somewhat more humid airmass. Some stratus is possible across northern MA to start the day, otherwise expect partly to mostly sunny skies with clouds increasing later in the afternoon. 925 mb temps increase to 15-17C supporting highs 75-80, perhaps a few lower 80s in the interior valleys, but 60s near the south coast due to increasing S- SW flow. Dewpoints will be climbing through the 50s. It will become breezy with soundings suggesting gusts to 20-30 mph in the afternoon.

Marginal instability across the interior which may lead to a few convective showers developing mid-late afternoon, but better chance of showers and t-storms will be to the north and west where better moisture and instability closer to a frontal boundary.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Points

* Rain possible Wednesday with showers lingering into Thursday

* Mainly dry Friday, then unsettled wet weather returns for the weekend.

* High temps remain seasonable with onshore flow

Wednesday

Shortwave trough exits out of the Ohio River Valley and passes just south of SNE. With the best forcing to the south, this has caused models to trend the associated surface low further south. This shift south has been a trend with guidance over this time range in the last week. Wouldn't be surprised if models keep shifting the low and QPF south over the coming days. With the shift south, Ensemble QPF probs have decreased significantly. Probs for 1 inch of rain is now less then 10% and for 0.5 inches less then 30%. High temps drop back into the mid to upper 60s with 850mb temps dropping back to +7C along with showers and thick cloud cover around much of the day.

Thursday and Friday

Guidance has trended slower kicking out the shortwave as it tries to cutoff over the mid Atlantic coast due to downstream blocking. This has resulted in rain chances lingering into Thursday before an abnormally dry airmass and NW flow kicks in for Thursday afternoon into Friday. High temps both days should reach the upper 60s to mid 70s with mainly sunny conditions and onshore flow. The only wrench in a nice pleasant end to the week is if the cutoff stalls just south of the region which would bring cooler temps, cloudy skies, and more rain. Winds Thursday could become gusty up to 35mph esspically near the coasts as the surface low passes offshore to the east.

Next Weekend

Another shortwave trough exits the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday.
Guidance remains quite spread on the timing and amplitude of this shortwave. There will likely be rain sometime over the weekend, but its too early to pin down exact timing and how much will fall. Highs over the weekend look to remain seasonable in the upper 60s to mid 70s with onshore flow.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High confidence.

VFR with 5-10k ft cigs developing in the afternoon. A few showers possible in western MA after 18z. S-SW wind 10-15 kt with sea-breezes developing along the coast.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR cigs with scattered showers moving through the region, especially north of the Pike. Lower MVFR cigs may develop across northern MA overnight. S-SW wind 5-10 kt

Tuesday...High confidence.

VFR. A few convective showers possible across interior MA and northern CT during the afternoon. SW gusts to 20-25 kt developing.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. Sea breeze develops around 14z. Low chance for a shower tonight

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. SSW winds.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.

Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday...

Increasing S-SW winds this afternoon into tonight with gusts to 20 kt at times over nearshore waters. SW gusts to 25 kt Tue, especially eastern MA waters where SCA will likely be needed.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Monomoy Point
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Mon -- 12:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:20 AM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:08 PM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:51 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
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Monomoy Point, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, Tide feet

Pollock Rip Channel
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Mon -- 12:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:35 AM EDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:24 AM EDT     1.95 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:21 PM EDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:53 PM EDT     1.50 knots Max Flood
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Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current, knots

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