Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Mills, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:12AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 2, 2020 6:11 PM EDT (22:11 UTC) Moonrise 6:01PMMoonset 2:58AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 416 Pm Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night through Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 416 Pm Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cool front will sag southward late in the day today. Developing low pres on the cool front moves into the southeast waters tonight, high pres builds into coastal waters overnight into Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Mills, MA
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location: 41.57, -71.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 022038 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 438 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will cross southern New England this evening, diminishing after sunset. A backdoor cold front approaches our area tonight. The front and a weak low pressure center remain in our vicinity during Friday, bringing clouds and scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Cooler than normal weather follows on Saturday, July 4th, across eastern New England along with morning clouds and a few showers. Progressively warmer and more humid air invades the area next week with chances of typical late day showers or thunderstorms. The best chances for storms look to be Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. 430 PM update .

This Evening/Tonight .

SPC mesoanalysis page shows MLCAPE 500 to 1000 J/kg, so some instability in place triggers thus far have been limited to topography. Could still see isolated showers/thunderstorms over the interior for the next few hours, also taking into consideration convection to our north that may dip into our area, so have continued a slight chance pop there. Any thunderstorm could produce brief wind gusts to 35-40 mph.

Slight chance for lingering shower or two over the interior after sunset, then mainly dry tonight with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Then late tonight back door cold front moves into our area during with a weak low pressure circulation forming along it and on the shoreline. This will allow for an increase in cloud cover later tonight. While the late night hours are expected to be mainly dry, it is possible we could get an isolated shower or two in the area, or perhaps some patchy drizzle nearshore.

With dewpoints in the 60s and an increase in cloud cover later tonight, expecting warm overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Friday .

Interesting setup over our area, starting off the day with back door cold front draped from weak low pressure near Cape Cod/Islands, with models showing western end of front draped over western New England. For our eastern zones and into central MA, this means a more maritime influence with NE/onshore winds, bringing in some lower cloud cover and eventual chances for scattered showers/light rain, and high temps limited to the low to mid 70s.

Across the Connecticut River Valley Region in MA and northern CT, somewhat warmer with highs upper 70s to low 80s, but the combination of the front, better instability and some short waves moving NW to SE through the area will bring a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. Instability looks limited to 500-1000 J/kg and the unstable airmass moves from E to W during the day as the back door front exits western New England. With this in mind continuing higher PoPs/QPF within western MA/western CT.

Continued with a non-diurnal temperature curve, with highs towards midday and temperatures gradually falling in the afternoon.

Friday Night .

As front moves further south, high pressure over the Maritimes builds southward into New England, bringing a continuation of the E/NE flow and providing a stabilizing effect to the airmass as the night wears on. Leftover convection over CT and Western MA should dissipate early in the night, however some light rain is possible closer to the shoreline due to the onshore marine influence. Clouds then linger through the night over the three-state-region, with some decreasing clouds towards daybreak over the interior. Cooler overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. 430 PM update .

** Heat Advisories may be needed by Thursday .

Big Picture .

Upper level flow is from the northwest across our region through the late weekend and early next week. An upper ridge axis then builds across southern New England Tuesday and Wednesday, then flattening out as a trough approaches from the Great Lakes late in the week.

At the surface, there are rather nondescript features/weak pressure systems until a bona fide southwest flow sets up from Tuesday through Thursday. A cold front approaches on Thursday.

Daily details .

Independence Day .

High pressure over the Maritimes extends to New England, bringing a cooling east flow over land that should stabilize the airmass over our region. A few showers will exit the south coast early in the morning, otherwise it should be a dry day. High temperatures will range from near 70 at the immediate east coast of MA to the lower 80s in the CT River valley. Cannot rule out an isolated upslope rain shower in the east slopes of the Berkshires but forecast PoPs are less than 20 percent. Lows will be within a few degrees of 60.

Sunday .

A weak short wave trough moves southeastward across mainly northern New England on Sunday. With temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints rising to the mid 60s, this could be enough to trigger a few scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms, mainly in central and northeast MA.

Monday .

Weak low pressure is over southern New England on Monday. Winds will be light and variable and temperatures ranging from 70s with sea breezes at the coast to upper 80s over the CT River valley. Models show potential for widely scattered showers or thunderstorms over mainly western and southern sections.

Tuesday . A southerly flow returns to the area with high temperatures well up into the 80s, dewpoints mid 60s, and typical widely scattered showers or storms in the interior.

Wednesday and Thursday . Hot and humid bona fide summertime conditions as the upper ridge erodes slightly and we are in SW flow at the surface with WNW flow aloft. The 700 mb jet is relatively strong to our northwest, with a look of a 'ring of fire' from the northern Great Lakes to northern New England. We may be on the southern part of this, but still will have relatively high chances of thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings. A cold front may focus the storms more on Thursday. But any storms Wed and Thu could be strong, with heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

Highs should reach 90 over interior sections Wed and the lower to mid 90s on Thursday as 925 mb temps reach +26 to +28C. With dewpoints having risen to near 70, this will lead to Heat Index values approaching the mid 90s by Thursday, which could reach Advisory thresholds in some areas.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

2030Z update .

Through 00Z: High confidence.

VFR conditions for most of the area. Moderately unstable conditions could pop isolated SHRA/TSRA 20-00z, mainly across the interior. Possible IFR vsby and gusty winds if a direct hit. Local sea breezes continue this afternoon, otherwise light winds. Mainly SW winds across Cape/ACK.

Tonight . High confidence thru about 09z, then trends moderate.

Any leftover SHRA to weaken early, with VFR conditions. As weak sfc low shifts into the southeast waters overnight/pre-dawn, increased onshore/NE wind will bring stratus towards eastern terminals around 12Z. Timing of stratus onset still isn't clear but best chance eastern MA terminals and the Cape. Light W winds veer to the N by 12Z.

Friday . Moderate confidence.

Deterioration to MVFR-IFR with showers, possible embedded thunder at BAF-BDL and perhaps ORH. Trends in timing and any potential improvement less clear. NE/E winds prevail through the day, strongest along the eastern shoreline.

Friday night . Moderate confidence.

MVFR/IFR conditions persist along eastern MA and RI terminals from 00Z thru 06Z, with mainly VFR over the interior. Then MVFR CIGs move westward, may not reach BDL-BAF prior to 12Z Sat.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence through 09Z, then moderate confidence in TAF. VFR with sea breeze until sunset.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence through 09Z, then moderate confidence in TAF. Isolated tstms may pop nearby until around 00Z. Otherwise VFR tonight, with CIGs becoming MVFR by midday Fri with a chance for SHRA or isolated TSRA.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Patchy BR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, patchy BR.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

MARINE. 430 PM update .

Tonight . Mainly dry conditions, an isolated shower is possible later tonight. Local sea breezes diminish with sunset, then SW winds 5 to 10 kts veering to the N overnight. Gusts to 25 kt Mass/Ipswich Bay and vicinity towards daybreak, with SCA headlines posted.

Friday and Friday Night .

SCA continues into Friday for Mass/Ipswich Bay and the waters east, as well as the waters east of Cape Cod, for seas 3 to 5 feet and NE wind gusts to 25 kt. For the remainder of the waters NE wind gusts 15-20 kt expected with seas 2 to 4 feet. Scattered showers/light rain mainly Friday night, with patchy fog developing.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Independence Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Patchy fog.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ250- 251.

SYNOPSIS . NMB/GAF NEAR TERM . NMB SHORT TERM . NMB LONG TERM . GAF AVIATION . NMB/GAF MARINE . NMB/GAF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRXM3 10 mi54 min 81°F 68°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 11 mi54 min 82°F 73°F1007.8 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 11 mi54 min SW 8.9 G 12 78°F 1007.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 12 mi72 min SW 14 G 15 1008.8 hPa (-1.2)
PRUR1 13 mi54 min 74°F 69°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 14 mi54 min SSW 9.9 G 12 73°F 65°F1007.6 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 15 mi54 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 78°F 1007.9 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 15 mi87 min SW 6 79°F 1008 hPa69°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 18 mi54 min SSW 9.9 G 11 78°F 74°F1007.4 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 18 mi54 min 76°F 71°F1007.1 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 21 mi54 min 72°F 71°F1007.9 hPa
PVDR1 22 mi54 min SSE 12 G 13 78°F 1007.3 hPa71°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 24 mi60 min S 11 G 13 80°F 69°F1007.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi87 min SSE 2.9 76°F 1008 hPa69°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi42 min SSW 12 G 14 70°F 1006.9 hPa69°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi46 min 72°F4 ft
44090 43 mi45 min 71°F1 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA10 mi19 minSW 710.00 miFair80°F68°F67%1006.7 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI11 mi19 minS 610.00 miFair78°F66°F69%1007.1 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI19 mi22 minSSW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds82°F69°F66%1007.1 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI22 mi21 minS 1010.00 miA Few Clouds83°F71°F67%1006.8 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA22 mi20 minSW 610.00 miFair84°F68°F59%1006.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWB

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW5CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmW54S7SW6S10SW8SW6SW7
1 day agoSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S6S7SW6SE9S9S11SE11S6S8
2 days ago3N3N6N3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmNW3N4N4N3NE4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for Hix Bridge, East Branch, Westport River, Massachusetts
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Hix Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:24 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:10 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.20.10.10.51.222.72.82.51.81.10.50.1-0.10.10.51.32.33.23.73.52.92.1

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:25 AM EDT     2.38 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:46 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:11 AM EDT     -2.40 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:50 PM EDT     2.19 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:36 PM EDT     -2.58 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.60.111.82.32.21.2-0.4-1.8-2.4-2.2-1.7-1-0.30.51.31.92.21.60.1-1.5-2.4-2.5-2.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.