Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Mills, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:14PM Monday December 9, 2019 8:02 AM EST (13:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:53PMMoonset 5:03AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 716 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from noon est today through Tuesday morning...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain this morning, then showers this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu through Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front will lift N of the waters this morning. A slow moving cold front will approach southern new england Tue and cross the waters Tue night and Wed. High pres will build into the region from the great lakes Thu and Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Mills, MA
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location: 41.57, -71.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 091223 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 723 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Milder air will push into the region today, accompanied by showers today into Tuesday. A cold front moves through Tuesday night, ushering in much colder air that will likely change the rain to snow and linger into Wednesday with accumulations possible. Large high pressure will bring cold and dry conditions Friday. Another system will approach with mixed rain and/or snow Friday night. Temperatures will slowly rise overnight allowing the mixed precipitation to change to rain Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

7 AM Update .

* Spotty light icing will continue through mid morning across N CT into S central Mass *

As southerly winds have been increasing along the S coast of Mass and RI over the last couple of hours, temps have risen to the mid 40s to around 50 there at 12Z. Further N, winds remain light/variable or calm, so the warm air is riding up over the cold dome near ground level across portions of N CT, N RI into S central Mass. Temps hovering around the freezing mark at several reporting stations.

Area of precip has been filling in over the last hour or so especially across central and W CT and into portions of RI and interior SE Mass. As the precip becomes steadier, should see winds mix down and temps slowly rise.

Will continue to see precip lift N-NE through this morning and continue through the day and become more showery as the milder air works N.

Previous Discussion .

* Flood Potential *

Southerly flow has allowed temperatures to rise slowly through the night across most of SNE. High-res models are in good agreement that more widespread showers will arrive between 7 and 10 AM. Heavier rainfall should hold off until this afternoon as larger scale lift increases ahead of mid level short wave and nose of LLJ brings increasing PWATs to over 1 inch, with likely focus south of Mass Pike (and especially near South Coast). Ensembles indicate system is somewhat anomalous in its southerly wind component and moisture (generally +2 to 3 SD), but not excessively so.

Temperatures rising into 50s, combined with high dew points and strong S/SW winds, will lead to rapid snowmelt across much of SNE especially in CT, RI, and eastern MA where NOHRSC modeling erodes much of existing snowpack. Water content in these areas is no more than 1" on average, so while overall flood threat is low for rivers/streams per MMEFS hydrologic ensembles, there is a higher potential for urban and poor drainage flooding which will affect afternoon commute. Not planning on issuing Flood Watches at this time.

* Strong Winds *

925 mb winds increase to more than 60kt this afternoon across SE New England. Forecast soundings show strong inversion between warmer air aloft and cooler air at surface, which will limit true gust potential. However, momentum alone should be able to realize about 2/3 of that, meaning max gusts up to 40kt seem reasonable. It looks marginal to reach Wind Advisory criteria on Cape Cod/Islands (may be more likely on sustained winds) but since impact would be fairly low we will hold off on any wind headlines, aside from marine as detailed below.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Heavier rainfall continues through early tonight, again focused south of Mass Pike where we have larger scale lift from both low level and upper level jets, as well as strong low level convergence and deep moisture. Activity should subside overnight as short wave moves offshore.

Strong southerly flow will keep temperatures nearly steady tonight, in 50s for much of SNE, which will lead to further erosion of snowpack. Per NOHRSC modeling it's likely that we lose all of the snowpack by Tuesday morning except across the hills of western/central MA and northern CT. Expect continued urban/poor drainage flood threat.

Other concern is for areas of dense fog, especially across interior where deeper snowpack is in place.

Next round of showers arrives later Tue afternoon with approach of cold front. By that time PWATs are on the decrease and moisture convergence is less impressive, so not anticipating significant rainfall. We spend most of day in warm sector so despite thick cloud cover highs will top out in the 50s to some lower 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Highlights .

* Rain moves in early Tuesday night, then changes over to snow as temperatures fall

* Confidence increasing for a plowable snow across the interior and urban corridor after midnight Tuesday night through Wednesday morning . conditions late Wed/Wed evening * Cold and dry Wednesday night through Friday. Moderating temperatures and increasing moisture levels Friday night.

* Another weather system approaches from the southwest with mixed rain/snow to start late Friday, changing to rain overnight Fri night into Sat morning then continues through most of the weekend Details .

Tuesday night and Wednesday .

As the cold front pushes offshore, will see some spotty showers lingering. However, with the SW flow aloft in place with the long wave trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley, next area of rain lifts NE on the backside of the exiting front. Excellent moisture plume (2-3 SD above normal on the 00Z GEFS) working across the region. Rain will back in and, as the colder air filters back in, will become a brief wintry mix before changing to snow.

Will see about 0.25 to 0.4 inches of precip overnight, which could yield a few inches of snow as the colder air works in. Will likely see impacts on roadways for the Wednesday morning commute. especially on secondary roads and other untreated surfaces. The steady snow will continue through around midday Wednesday before starting to taper off as the precip shifts offshore during the afternoon.

At this point, could see several inches of snow mainly across the interior and higher terrain. Will likely need snow headlines for late Tuesday night into Wednesday for the central part of the interior from the E slopes of the Berkshires and CT valley (including the Hartford/Springfield area) to Worcester and interior NE Mass.

Wednesday night through Thursday night .

Large high pressure shifts E out of the Great Lakes across New England during this timeframe. Expect the coldest air to move across Wednesday night and Thursday as H85 temps drop to -9C to -17C from S-N overnight Wed night. Temps will bottom out in the teens well inland to the mid 20s to near 30 near the coast. Highs on Thursday will only reach to 20s well inland, ranging to the lower to mid 30s across the coastal plain.

Expect gusty NW winds along the coast Wed night into Thu, up to 25-30 kt, so could see wind chills down to the teens.

Friday through Sunday .

Model solution spread increases during this timeframe as high pres pushes toward the Maritimes Friday.

Will see light/variable winds to start on Friday, but some question how quickly the next system will lift NE out of the SE U.S. Leaned toward an overall model blend. Could see some moisture start to push across the region during the day Friday along with milder air on S-SW winds. However, colder air may be trapped at the onset of the precip during the day Friday, so may start as light snow showers before becoming mixed with rain or possibly a wintry mix mainly across the higher terrain. Noting a non-diurnal temp trend through the night, so the min should occur Friday evening.

Looks like temps will run close to or above seasonal normals for mid December, but will also keep the chances for rain through most of the weekend. Temps on Saturday will range from around 40 across the E slopes of the Berkshires to the lower 50s across SE New England, with readings on Sunday just a few degrees cooler.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/ . High confidence.

12Z TAFs .

Mainly MVFR CIGS/VFR VSBYS well inland with local VFR conditions across N Mass TAF sites. Further S, mix of VFR-MVFR conditions at most sites, except IFR-LIFR across portions N CT into S central Mass. Expect lowest conditions across N central/NW Mass with deep snowpack in place.

IFR-LIFR conditions will continue early tonight, then VSBYS may slowly improve as SW winds will increase overnight. CIGS will remain low.

Scattered -SHRA linger across region Tue with MVFR-IFR CIGS and areas of MVFR-IFR VSBYS mainly along S coast.

LLWS this morning inland due to light winds at surface and 2kft winds 19040kt. Later today and tonight, focus of LLWS shifts into RI and eastern MA as southerly low level jet increases to 50-60kt at 2kft.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. RA likely, SN likely, PL likely.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN, isolated SHSN.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHSN.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tuesday/ . High confidence.

** Gale Warnings for most of waters through Tue morning **

Increasing S-SW winds today between high pressure well offshore and warm front lifting north of waters. Onset of Gale force gusts is early to mid afternoon, with peak gusts of 35-40kt expected from late afternoon through tonight, before winds fall below Gale force later Tue morning.

Steadier showers arrive this morning, with heaviest rain this afternoon through early tonight. Patches of dense fog possible mainly on south coastal waters. More in way of scattered showers Tue before next round of steadier rainfall arrives later in the day.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain likely, patchy fog.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain likely, snow likely, scattered rain showers, scattered snow showers, patchy fog.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ236.

SYNOPSIS . EVT/JWD NEAR TERM . EVT/JWD SHORT TERM . JWD LONG TERM . EVT AVIATION . EVT/JWD MARINE . EVT/JWD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRXM3 10 mi68 min 50°F 49°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 11 mi62 min S 7 G 8.9 50°F 1023.7 hPa (-1.8)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 11 mi68 min 50°F 41°F1024 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 12 mi62 min S 20 G 21 51°F 1023.7 hPa (-2.1)
PRUR1 13 mi62 min 50°F 49°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 14 mi68 min S 5.1 G 7 49°F 39°F1023.6 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 15 mi77 min SSW 6 48°F 1024 hPa47°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 15 mi62 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 48°F 1024.2 hPa (-1.8)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 18 mi68 min S 7 G 8 46°F 42°F1023.8 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 21 mi68 min 49°F 42°F1024.4 hPa
PVDR1 22 mi62 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 41°F 1023.9 hPa (-1.8)41°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 24 mi68 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 40°F 42°F1023.8 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi77 min SE 1.9 50°F 1025 hPa50°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi82 min 43°F1 ft
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi32 min 52°F4 ft
44090 43 mi32 min 46°F1 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA10 mi69 minSSE 64.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F46°F93%1023.9 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI11 mi69 minS 62.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist50°F48°F93%1023.5 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI22 mi71 minN 01.25 miLight Rain Fog/Mist38°F37°F97%1023.8 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA22 mi70 minSE 43.00 miFog/Mist45°F43°F93%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWB

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS7S9SW9S10S8
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Tide / Current Tables for Hix Bridge, East Branch, Westport River, Massachusetts
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Hix Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:00 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:03 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:48 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:24 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.30.61.21.92.62.92.82.31.610.50.20.20.30.71.322.52.52.11.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:02 AM EST     2.21 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:03 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:44 AM EST     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:56 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:27 PM EST     2.32 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:08 PM EST     -2.40 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.40.31.11.82.21.80.5-1.2-2.3-2.5-2.1-1.4-0.700.91.72.22.21.2-0.4-1.8-2.4-2.2-1.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.