Tuesday, June15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Mills, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:07AMSunset 8:21PM Tuesday June 15, 2021 12:03 AM EDT (04:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:47AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 1027 Pm Edt Mon Jun 14 2021
Overnight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Showers with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu and Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Fri and Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat and Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft, except 3 to 5 ft at the bay entrance. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1027 Pm Edt Mon Jun 14 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Tropical depression two formed off the carolinas and will move northeast, remaining south of our southern waters. Tonight a frontal boundary pushes off shore with areas of light rain. Tuesday there will be two rounds of showers. The first comes from a coastal low pushing across southern new england during the morning hours. Then a cold front moves from northwest to southeast during the afternoon hours, scattered Thunderstorms are possible. High pressure returns on Wednesday and remains our primary weather feature through the end of the week. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Mills, MA
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location: 41.57, -71.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 150255 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1055 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SYNOPSIS. Rounds of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue at times tonight into Tuesday. Dry weather with very pleasant temperatures returns Wednesday through Friday. It turns warmer and more humid ahead of a cold front on Saturday with the potential for a round of scattered showers & thunderstorms. Dry and pleasant weather likely returns Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Minor tweaks to the forecast this evening, mainly to try to time out rainfall across the region. Southern new England was entering a little lull, with more showers and a few thunderstorms expected later tonight.

Minor tweaks to temperatures, which should not change much the rest of tonight.

Previous Discussion .

Much of the earlier shower and isolated t-storm activity has dissipated across the region. There still was a small cluster of heavy showers across far southeast Plymouth county. We were also were watching a cluster of showers and a few thunderstorms moving east across eastern New York. The model guidance continues to struggle with the location, timing and strength of this activity.

Overall, we expect little if any surface instability tonight. Therefore, the severe weather threat is quite low overnight. However, modest effective shear of 35 to 45+ knots will continue along with MUCapes of 500+ J/KG. So putting it all together, we will have to watch for activity across eastern NY working into the region over the next few hours. In addition, modest forcing with enough elevated instability may result in scattered showers and a few t-storms re-developing overnight. Again, timing and location of this activity remains uncertain but bands of scattered showers and a few t-storms will be possible at times through daybreak Tuesday. The overall severe weather threat will remain rather low, but locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the activity given Pwats of 1.50 inches.

As for temperatures, low temps should bottom out around 60 to the lower 60s in most locales. We will also have to watch for some patchy fog.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Short Term:

Highlights

* There is potential for a few strong to severe storms on Tuesday. The main threats with any stronger storms are hail, gusty winds and heavy downpours.

Tuesday .

Southern New England will remain embedded within cyclonic flow through this period. A trough will lift from the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic early on Tuesday into northern New England by late in the day. Another trough digs into the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic late. A broad surface low will lift over or just by to the southeast.

Lots of discrepancy amongst guidance with regards to timing and location for the thunderstorm risk on Tuesday. The risk for any stronger storms will largely be dependent on the evolution of convection across the CWA late tonight into early Tuesday. If we can clear out any precipitation and cloudiness then this would maximize the instability thus bringing a higher risk for stronger storms. If the clouds remain we may still have storms, but it would be more difficult to get stronger storms going. Depends on the deterministic model that one chooses for the amount of instability ranging from a few hundred J/kg of CAPE to AOA 1000 J/kg. Looks like the higher probabilities of SBCAPE is across the Merrimack Valley from the current and previous HREF run being around a 40-70 percent chance and lesser probabilities elsewhere.

Does appear that besides the instability that models have a good consensus on other parameters. Expecting a pretty good cold pool aloft with 500 hPa temperatures between -13 to -20 degrees Celsius. There will be pretty good low level lapse rates in place between 6-8 degrees Celsius per km and mid level lapse rates around 7 degrees Celsius per km. Deep layer shear is on the order of 40-60 kts, so this would be supportive of organized storms depending on the instability available. Given this environment am thinking that hail and gusty winds will be the main risk if stronger storms develop. Do have PWATS on the order of 1.25-1.5 inches with warm cloud layers between 3-3.5 km across central and eastern areas, so there may be some heavy downpours.

Tricky temperature forecast given it will be largely dependent on how quickly cloud cover clears. Given there are 850 hPa temperatures in the 10-12 degree Celsius range have highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Will see any shower/storm activity diminish during the evening as the low lifts into Maine/the Gulf of Maine. Will see clearing skies as the night progresses. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Highlights .

* Dry/pleasant weather returns Wed through Fri * Highs mainly in the m-u 70s Wed/Thu and 80-85 for Fri * Scattered showers & t-storms possible sometime Sat * Dry Weather probably returns for Sun Details:

Wednesday and Thursday .

Guidance is in very good agreement in an upper trough over the northeast states with below normal height fields Wed & Thu. Deeper surface moisture will have already pushed east of our region, which should result in dry weather with very comfortable humidity levels for this time of year. The upper trough will keep temperatures below normal for mid-June, but still expect highs to reach mainly the middle to upper 70s with just some diurnal CU. It will be cool/comfortable at night given low dewpoint air for this time of Warmer year. We should see low temperatures bottom out in the 40s across some out-lying areas Wednesday night.

Friday .

Upper trough begins to push east of the region allowing for rising height fields. High pressure to the south of the region should maintain dry weather, but with mid level warming expect highs to recover to between 80 and 85 in many locations. Humidity levels will remain quite comfortable.

This Weekend .

A shortwave/cold front will approach and cross the region sometime Saturday. This may trigger a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms sometime Sat/Sat evening. It is too early to try to assess severe weather potential given this is 5 days in the future. There does look to be at least modest wind fields/shear, but whether or not we see enough moisture return for adequate instability and favorable timing remains to be seen. We may see some humidity return by Saturday with highs in the 80s, but it will be short-lived. Dry weather with lower humidity does look to return behind this cold front by Sunday with seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight . Moderate Confidence. Varying conditions across southern New England late this evening. Mostly dealing with MVFR, with areas of both VFR and IFR. Thinking conditions will briefly improve between now and about daybreak, before deteriorating once more. Scattered showers & a few thunderstorms will impact the region at times. Light S winds.

Tuesday . Moderate Confidence. Risk for scattered SHRA/TSRA becoming more likely across the area. Mix of MVFR and VFR for most of our region after the morning lower clouds burn off. However, IFR conditions will remain possible towards the south coast, Cape and Islands.

KBOS TAF . Moderate Confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF . Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday through Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/ . High Confidence.

Southerly winds at 10-15 kts with some gusts to around 20 kts through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas may be a bit choppy at times, but conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Showers and perhaps a few storms are possible tonight with reduced visibility. Will have a risk of thunderstorms on Tuesday with areas of stratus and fog still expected.

Tuesday night . High confidence.

A broad low lifts into Maine/the Gulf of Maine, which will shift winds from a southerly direction to the SW/W and eventually the NW Tuesday night. Speeds will remain between 5-15 kts with potentially a few gusts to 20 kts late. Seas 2-4 ft with showers ending early. Expect the fog/stratus to shift east of the waters as the wind direction shifts.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Thursday through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/KS NEAR TERM . Belk/Frank SHORT TERM . BL/KS LONG TERM . Frank AVIATION . Belk/Frank/BL/KS MARINE . Frank/BL/KS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRXM3 10 mi45 min 65°F 65°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 11 mi45 min 66°F 66°F1010.1 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 11 mi45 min SW 6 G 6 66°F 1009.9 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 12 mi63 min S 6 G 6 1010.8 hPa (+0.0)
PRUR1 13 mi45 min 65°F 65°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 14 mi51 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 65°F 61°F1009.7 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 15 mi45 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 65°F 1010.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 15 mi78 min SSW 2.9 65°F 1010 hPa65°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 18 mi45 min S 5.1 G 5.1 65°F 65°F1009.8 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 18 mi45 min W 5.1 G 6 64°F 68°F1009.4 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 21 mi45 min 65°F 64°F1009.9 hPa
PVDR1 22 mi45 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 66°F 1009.8 hPa66°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 24 mi51 min S 2.9 G 5.1 66°F 64°F1009.9 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi78 min ESE 1.9 68°F 1010 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi23 min 7.8 G 12 65°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi37 min 63°F4 ft
44090 43 mi37 min 62°F1 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA10 mi70 minVar 310.00 miFog/Mist66°F65°F96%1009.2 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI11 mi70 minS 51.00 miFog/Mist64°F64°F100%1009.5 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI22 mi72 minSSW 47.00 miOvercast66°F65°F96%1009.8 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA22 mi71 minN 010.00 miOvercast67°F65°F93%1009.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWB

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S8SE116SE8SE10S3SE7E3E5SE8S10SE7SE8S4S63Calm
1 day agoSW3SW3SW4SW3SW3CalmSW34W4W106SW8SW7
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2 days agoSE6E3CalmN4NE6N5CalmCalmN435N4NE4CalmS53SW7S5SW7SW5SW4CalmS3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Hix Bridge, East Branch, Westport River, Massachusetts
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Hix Bridge
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Tue -- 01:18 AM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:42 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:54 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.82.72.41.81.20.60.30.20.50.91.41.92.32.42.31.91.30.80.50.40.61.11.6

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:39 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:14 AM EDT     -2.69 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:49 AM EDT     2.04 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:46 PM EDT     -2.57 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:14 PM EDT     1.54 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.8-0.5-1.9-2.7-2.4-1.6-0.60.311.61.921.60.5-1.1-2.3-2.5-2-1.1-0.30.40.91.31.5

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