Monday, April6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Mills, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:16PM Monday April 6, 2020 1:09 AM EDT (05:09 UTC) Moonrise 5:36PMMoonset 5:51AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 1016 Pm Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri and Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1016 Pm Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Weak high pres will slide east of the waters this evening. A weak cold front will cross the waters by Monday morning. High pres builds to the west Mon, moving south of the waters Tue. Low pres may track south of new eng Wed, followed by a strong cold front on Thu. Another low pres may develop on this front in new eng, then moving into the gulf of maine. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Mills, MA
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location: 41.57, -71.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 060220 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1020 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front slides through tonight and high pressure builds in behind it. Expect dry, gusty and mild weather on Monday. The dry and mild conditions continue on Tuesday. After a mild Tuesday afternoon a fast moving low pressure system will bring a period of rain late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning along with cool temperatures. Another low pressure system and an associated cold front will bring another round of rain for Thursday. Cool temperatures will persist Friday into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. 1015 PM update .

Some enhancement in cloud tops across SNE as shortwave moves through. Still a risk of a brief shower developing next few hours, otherwise clearing moving in overnight from NW to SE behind the cold front. Forecast on track.

Previous discussion .

A moisture starved shortwave/cold front crossing the region was bringing a few brief sprinkles/light showers to CT early this evening. May see a brief light shower or two over the next few hours across RI/Eastern MA. Activity should be quite spotty and light, so dry weather dominates tonight.

Otherwise, skies clear from west to east behind the front overnight. Surface winds shift from a southwesterly direction to the west and eventually the northwest. Winds are expected to be relatively light and skies should clear out quick enough to allow for ample radiative cooling. Nudged low temperatures toward the 15th percentile of guidance. May need to be knocked down further if skies clear quicker than currently anticipated. Conversely temperatures will need to be increased a bit if clouds clear slower than forecast. Lows by daybreak will range from the middle 30s to the lower 40s with the coolest readings in the typical outlying locations.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Highlights

* Very dry, warm and gusty across southern New England on Monday. Elevated fire weather potential for MA, RI and CT.

* Dry and quiet weather Monday night with increasing cloud cover.

Monday .

Remain under cyclonic flow aloft with a mid level ridge axis building into the eastern Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic on Monday. Skies will be sunny and winds will remain out of the northwest and be gusty throughout the day, but especially during the afternoon.

High pressure will bring clear skies across the region. This will allow for strong mixing as lapse rates within the boundary layer will be adiabatic. This is also depicted well by Bufkit sounding profiles by the NAM/GFS guidance. Models tend to under-do the amount of mixing, so put in the 90th percentile of guidance for wind gusts and added a bit more on top of that. Winds will be out of the northwest around 10-15 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph. There will be a period during the afternoon where winds gust up to 20-25 mph.

The stronger mixing will also bring down drier air aloft, so have knocked down dewpoints toward the 10th percentile of guidance during the afternoon. Lastly due to the direction of the winds expect strong downslope, which will bring very warm temperatures. Bumped up high temperatures across the region to the 95th percentile of guidance. Expecting widespread minimum relative humidities in the 10 to 20 percent range. High temperatures range from the mid 50s across Cape Cod, Nantucket and the eastern slopes of the Berkshires to the upper 50s and 60s elsewhere.

Per coordination with our fire weather partners decided to issue an SPS highlighting the risk for elevated fire weather potential from 1 PM until 6 PM on Monday.

Monday Night .

Cyclonic flow persists and the mid level ridge axis flattens out. This allows a shortwave to swing through aloft. This will bring increasing cloud cover across the region from west to east.

Somewhat uncertain at this point how much cloud cover there will be. This will impact how cool temperatures get Monday night. Knocked things down a bit, but if there is less cloud cover then will need to bring temperatures down further. Lows will generally be in the 30s, but coastal areas will see readings around 40.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Highlights .

* Dry & mild on Tue

* A cold rain late Tue night into first half of Wed with perhaps a brief period of wet snow in the highest terrain of northern MA

* A second round of rain and cool temps on Thu with perhaps a brief period of wet snow in extreme northwest MA

* Cool temperatures persist Fri into next weekend

Details .

Tuesday .

A beautiful day is on tap for the region. Plenty of April sunshine and 925T between +7C and +9C will combined with a well mixed/dry atmosphere. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 60s in many locations away from the immediate coast. A weak pressure gradient will probably allow for some afternoon sea breezes and cooler conditions on the immediate coast. Nonetheless, a very nice day is in store for southern New England.

Tuesday night and Wednesday .

Low pressure across the Great Lakes will be tracking east. While dry weather should prevail Tue evening, mid/high level cloudiness will be on the increase. This low pressure system will be forced to the east southeast, given upper level blocking pattern across eastern Canada. This will place southern New England on the cool side of the system. While this low pressure system is progressive, there should be decent band of mid level frontogenesis on the northern side of the system. A period of widespread rain will overspread the region very late Tue night with the bulk of it coming to an end by late Wed morning. Thermal profiles may be marginally cold enough for a brief period of wet snow across the highest terrain of northern MA.

Despite the bulk of the rain ending before lunchtime Wed, low clouds and NE low level flow will persist. This probably holds high temps in the 40s across most locations.

Wednesday night and Thursday .

While dry weather dominates Wed night, another low pressure system/cold front will be approaching from the west. Modest southerly LLJ and moisture return will support another round of rain on Thu with perhaps even a brief period of wet snow across far northwest MA. Highs on Thu will remain rather cool mainly in the 40s to near 50.

Friday through Next Weekend .

Impressive trough over the central and northeast U.S. will result in cool temperatures into next weekend. We should have offshore winds though on Fri and Sat, so despite chilly temps aloft given its April high temps should still recover into the upper 40s to the lower 50s. We may have a few diurnally driven showers Fri given the cold pool aloft. The main rain threat would be next Sun, but that remains uncertain. The ECMWF and EPS guidance show the potential for low pressure working up the coast, while other models show that being a much lower risk. Too early to say much more at this point.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

00Z Discussion .

Tonight . High confidence

Generally VFR, other than some brief/spotty MVFR conditions early this evening in the high terrain. Other than a brief passing sprinkle/light shower early this evening, it will be dry tonight. Light SW winds shift to the NW by daybreak.

Monday . High confidence

High pressure builds in. This will keep conditions VFR with clear skies. The mixed layer will grow and anticipate gusty northwest winds. Not out of the question there are some 20-25 kt gusts across the higher elevations. Elsewhere gusts generally max out between 15-20 kts.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in the TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in the TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/ .

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA mainly in the morning.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.

Thursday: Mainly MVFR. Breezy. RA.

Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. A weak cold front slides through tonight. This will shift southerly winds to the west and eventually the northwest once the front passes through. This front may bring some scattered rain showers late and potentially some visibility reduction. Most confident in some visibility reduction due to fog formation along the south coast. Winds around 10-15 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts. Small Craft Conditions continue across the outer waters due to heightened seas.

High pressure builds in on Monday bringing light winds. Waves will continue to diminish and should fall below 5 ft across Small Craft Advisory areas by late morning/early afternoon.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/ .

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain mainly through early afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

FIRE WEATHER. High pressure building into the eastern Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic. Expect strong northwesterly winds and downslope across southern New England. Forecast models tend to under do the amount of mixing in these types of scenarios, so have utilized the warmest, driest and windiest guidance for this situation.

This will bring northwest winds around 10-15 mph with gusts generally of 15-20 mph. During the afternoon there will be a period where winds may gust up to 25 mph at times. This will couple with minimum relative humidities falling to 10-20 percent across much of southern New England. The only exception is along coastal locations.

This coupled with no canopy being on trees will allow for an elevated fire weather potential across southern New England.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Very high astronomical tides during the middle to latter half of the week will result in pockets of splashover and minor coastal flooding. However, at this point it does not look like we will have enough onshore flow or high seas offshore to result in any significant coastal flooding issues.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ250-254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ256.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/BL NEAR TERM . KJC/Frank/BL SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . Frank AVIATION . Frank/BL MARINE . Frank/BL FIRE WEATHER . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRXM3 10 mi52 min 45°F 42°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 11 mi52 min 45°F 46°F1015.8 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 11 mi52 min SSW 9.9 G 12 45°F 1015.6 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 12 mi70 min SW 9.9 G 11 1017 hPa (-0.5)
PRUR1 13 mi52 min 44°F 42°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 14 mi52 min SSW 7 G 8 44°F 41°F1015.6 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 15 mi52 min WSW 5.1 G 8 44°F 1016.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 15 mi85 min WSW 6 44°F 1016 hPa42°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 18 mi52 min SW 6 G 7 45°F 47°F1015.9 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 18 mi52 min 44°F 46°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 21 mi52 min 44°F 44°F1015.8 hPa
PVDR1 22 mi52 min S 5.1 G 6 46°F 1015.8 hPa42°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 24 mi58 min S 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 46°F1015.7 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi85 min S 2.9 44°F 1016 hPa41°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi90 min 2 ft
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi40 min 44°F4 ft
44090 43 mi40 min 44°F1 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA10 mi77 minSW 610.00 miOvercast43°F41°F93%1015.4 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI11 mi77 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F39°F85%1015.6 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI22 mi79 minSSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F39°F85%1015.8 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA22 mi78 minN 010.00 miFair43°F39°F86%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWB

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S3CalmSE7SE6S7S8S9S11SW10SW7S9SW6SW6SW5SW6SW3
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N10NE10NE9N4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Hix Bridge, East Branch, Westport River, Massachusetts
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Hix Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:00 AM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:44 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:23 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:07 PM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.1-0.3-0.5-0.30.31.22.233.22.92.21.20.4-0.2-0.5-0.40.10.9233.53.32.6

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:55 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:32 AM EDT     2.18 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:19 AM EDT     -2.84 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:54 PM EDT     2.53 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:49 PM EDT     -2.85 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-0.70.10.81.62.12.11.2-0.4-2-2.8-2.7-1.9-1-0.10.81.62.32.520.6-1.2-2.5-2.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.