Smith Mills, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smith Mills, MA

May 16, 2024 6:54 PM EDT (22:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM
Moonrise 1:17 PM   Moonset 2:23 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 404 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm edt this evening - .

Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely this evening. Areas of drizzle after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning.

Fri night - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sat - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sat night through Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Mon through Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 404 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Low pres S of new england will move slowly se through tonight, bringing a period of enhanced E to ene winds to the waters. High pres then builds in from atlc canada into srn new england Fri into this weekend, then should remain in place into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Mills, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 161906 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 306 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS

Rainfall tapering off for most late this afternoon, but may not be until this evening for parts of the south coast. Patchy fog spreading into the eastern half of southern New England. Could perhaps be dense at times in a few spots. Temperatures rebound nicely on Friday after the AM fog burns off. The weekend features generally dry weather and onshore breezes, but still a good amount of cloud cover. A warming trend then develops Monday through Wednesday, and we could see a couple days of high temperatures in the low 80s over interior sections of Southern New England. After today, our next chance for rain develops late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

* Rain tapering off from NW to SE as low pressure slides further offshore.

* Marine stratus/fog possibly dense at times spreading into central MA/RI eastward tonight.

A cutoff low will meander from south of southern New England late tonight to the southeast of our region by early Fri. Behind the cutoff a ridge slides from the Mid Atlantic/eastern Great Lakes into western New England by early Fri. Low pressure south of Long Island late today will rotate southeastward tonight, while high pressure nudges in from Upstate NY.

Main change to the forecast was slightly slow down precipitation tapering off from the low meandering offshore. Think for the MA-Pike northward things should end by this evening, but may not be until 10 PM to midnight for precip to cease for the MA-Pike southward. This will take the longest for MVY/ACK. Fortunately the heaviest precipitation is over with as the mesoscale band that set up is falling apart. This axis of precip will slide southeastward. Leaned pretty heavily on the previous ARW and current NSSL WRF as it is handling this band quite well based on observations.

The other main concern to the forecast for tonight is given the onshore flow am anticipating marine stratus/fog along with some drizzle to spread into southern New England. This has been hinted at by the past two cycles of the HRRR and several GLAMP runs. Have trended the forecast in this direction tonight for central MA/RI eastward. Not out of the question there could be some spots where the fog is dense, but not completely certain on this risk at this junction as guidance is all over the place.
Something we will need to monitor given the prolonged ENE to NE flow as it could linger into the Fri AM commute.

Cloud cover will be slow to clear for most other than portions of western MA/CT as this is closer to the high nudging its way in. Not expecting much radiational cooling and think the 50th percentile of guidance looks reasonable at this point. Lows in the low/mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Highlights

* Any stratus/fog anticipated to erode Fri AM. Mix of sun and clouds through Fri.

* Increasing clouds Fri Night into early Sat. Could see the stratus/fog returning to portions of eastern MA.

Ridge axis over western New England early on Fri builds over southern New England and into the Gulf of ME by late in the day.
The ridge essentially remains in place as we head into Fri Night, but may flatten out a bit as a shortwave lifts across the eastern Great Lakes into northern New England. A weak high nudges into New England on Fri and Fri Night.

Dry and quiet weather anticipated on Fri with high pressure in control. Should see any of the lingering stratus/fog burning off by mid to perhaps late AM. Will still have prolonged ENE to NE winds, but think given the breaks of May sun we should warm up quite nicely. Should see 925 hPa temps of 11-15 Celsius. The result should be widespread highs in the 60s with some mid 70s across the CT River Valley. Still may struggle to hit 60 degrees for portions of the east coast given the onshore winds, but will still have roughly 15-30 kt ENE to NE LLJ at 925. Should result in a fairly well mixed boundary layer, which should keep our temps up. It will be a bit breezy into the afternoon.

Still anticipating dry and quiet weather to persist as we head into Fri Night/Sat AM. Though we will see increasing cloudiness as the ridge axis gets shunted to the south due to the shortwave lifting in. Not a whole lot of moisture to work with in the mid levels, but there is increasing low level moisture per 1000-850 hPa RH fields. Should have PWATs of 0.75 to roughly 1 inch. At this point leaning on a dry forecast, but the ECMWF does eek out some spotty showers across the interior. Think there is a better shot given prolonged ENE to NE winds that we see another round of marine stratus/fog/drizzle across eastern areas heading into Sat AM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key messages...

* Outside of a spot shower, mainly dry weather is expected through at least the middle of next week.

* After a slightly cooler than average weekend a big warm-up arrives for early next week with 80s possible by Tuesday.

Details...

Saturday and Sunday...

Overall a welcome trend in the forecast for the weekend over the last 24-48 hours for anyone with outdoor activities as, even though the clouds will stick around, things should be dry on the whole.
This is thanks to a ridge of high pressure which will extend SW from Nova Scotia further into SNE each day. The positioning of that high will continue to direct cool, moist NE flow into the region. Thus, Saturday should be mostly cloudy, and Sunday, while drier air does start to work in from the upper levels down for lessening clouds, will still be at least partly cloudy. Besides keeping the clouds around this wind direction also keeps temperatures below normal; highs will be coolest in eastern MA (upper 50s/low 60s) and warmest in the CT Valley (low 70s).

Next week...

A pleasant week is setting up through at least Wednesday as high pressure continues to center overhead pushing one low pressure further to our east and suppressing one to the south over the Carolina coast. Surface flow eventually veers to the SW while at the same time we'll be seeing more insolation (thanks to less clouds)
and a warming mid level airmass. 850 mb warm from +8C on Sunday to +15C on Tuesday which looks to be the hottest day of the week; expecting temps well into the upper 70s for many locations and even low 80s for places like the CT and Merrimack Valleys. EPS and GEFS ensemble guidance currently outline a 40-50% chance of temps AOA 80F on Tuesday afternoon for those locations. It's not until around Thursday that we could see this dry pattern breaking down with the arrival of our next shortwave, but confidence is low at this distance in time.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00Z...High confidence.

MVFR to IFR conditions with rain tapering off from NW to SE for most. Though spotty rain may continue across portions of the south coast into this evening. Winds out of the ENE to NE at 10-20 kts with gusts of 20 to 35 kts. Should see those strongest speeds/gusts along the immediate south coast.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Western interior terminals may briefly improve to VFR this evening before lowering to MVFR/IFR as stratus spreads in.
Leaned more pessimistic for central MA/RI eastward due to prolonged ENE to NE winds (onshore flow). Anticipating that the marine stratus/fog layer spreads in lowering us to IFR and LIFR conditions. Could even see some dense fog in spots, especially across portions of Cape/Islands. For now kept things no worse than 1/2 SM, but may need to be adjusted in future updates.
Winds out of the ENE to NE at 5-15 kts. Still could see 20-30 kt gusts across MVY/ACK.

Friday...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

Widespread VFR after any stratus/fog burns off by roughly mid to late AM. Though may not be until the afternoon for ACK. Winds out of the ENE to NE at 5-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts across the Cape/Islands.

Friday Night...Moderate confidence.

VFR for most with increasing mid/high clouds. The only exception is across eastern MA, but especially SE MA where MVFR/IFR stratus/fog spreads in late. NE winds at 5-15 kts.

KBOS TAF...High confidence through 00Z, moderate afterward.

MVFR conditions persist with light rain gradually tapering off.
Gusty NE to ENE winds continue through roughly 01Z. Prolonged onshore flow will advect IFR to LIFR stratus onshore tonight along with some spotty drizzle. Uncertainty highest in the vsby as there are some indications that the fog could be dense for a few hours 04-09Z window. May not be until 13-15Z where the stratus/fog burns off due to the prolonged onshore flow.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Rains tapering off with MVFR persisting into the evening. Could have brief improvement to VFR this evening before borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings spread in late. Should see this lift to VFR early on Fri as the boundary layer grows.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday through Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence.

Rain tapering off across the southern waters north to south for most before midnight, though the far outer southern waters may not be until daybreak. Winds ENE to NE at 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts gradually easing heading into Fri AM. Patchy to areas of stratus/fog with visibility's of 1/2 to 4 SM. Could even see some spot where fog is dense at times.

Friday... High Confidence.

Any pockets of fog burning off by mid to late Fri AM. E/ENE winds 15-20 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. Seas remain elevated across the outer waters, so the SCA remains.

Friday Night...High confidence.

Winds remain out of the NE at 10-20 kts. Could see a return of stratus/fog across the waters late. Visibilities of 1-4 SM with the lowest across the eastern waters. Seas remain elevated so have extended the SCA through the period.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231- 233-234.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232- 236.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
NBGM3 9 mi54 min ENE 11G17 29.83
FRXM3 10 mi66 min 59°F 56°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 11 mi54 min NE 12G19 29.83
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 11 mi54 min 56°F29.84
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 12 mi54 min NE 23G25 54°F 29.79
44085 13 mi54 min 54°F 52°F6 ft
PRUR1 13 mi66 min 58°F 56°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 14 mi54 min NNE 12G16 53°F29.82
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 15 mi69 min SE 12 58°F 29.8358°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 15 mi54 min ENE 9.9G15 29.84
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 18 mi54 min N 15G20 59°F29.83
PDVR1 18 mi54 min NNE 8.9G14 29.81
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 18 mi54 min NE 15G20 29.83
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 21 mi54 min 56°F29.81
PVDR1 22 mi54 min NE 6G12 29.85
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 24 mi54 min NNE 9.9G13 52°F29.85
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi44 min ENE 21G25 55°F 55°F29.7854°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi58 min 48°F8 ft
44090 43 mi84 min 55°F 53°F2 ft


Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KEWB NEW BEDFORD RGNL,MA 10 sm61 minNNE 09G1710 smOvercast59°F55°F88%29.82
KUUU NEWPORT STATE,RI 11 sm13 minNE 13G1910 smOvercast57°F55°F94%29.81
KOQU QUONSET STATE,RI 18 sm64 minENE 228 smOvercast59°F55°F88%29.83
KTAN TAUNTON MUNI KING FIELD,MA 21 sm36 minvar 0510 smPartly Cloudy61°F54°F77%29.85
KPVD THEODORE FRANCIS GREEN STATE,RI 22 sm29 minNE 1210 smMostly Cloudy61°F57°F88%29.85
Link to 5 minute data for KEWB


Wind History from EWB
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Hix Bridge, East Branch, Westport River, Massachusetts
   
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Hix Bridge
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Thu -- 02:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:44 AM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:35 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:18 PM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Hix Bridge, East Branch, Westport River, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
0.8
1
am
0.9
2
am
1.3
3
am
1.7
4
am
2.2
5
am
2.3
6
am
2.1
7
am
1.7
8
am
1.3
9
am
0.9
10
am
0.7
11
am
0.6
12
pm
0.6
1
pm
0.7
2
pm
1
3
pm
1.5
4
pm
2
5
pm
2.4
6
pm
2.3
7
pm
2
8
pm
1.6
9
pm
1.2
10
pm
1
11
pm
0.8


Tide / Current for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
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Thu -- 01:41 AM EDT     1.74 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:48 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:05 PM EDT     2.13 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:25 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     -1.94 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
1
1
am
1.6
2
am
1.7
3
am
1
4
am
-0.3
5
am
-1.4
6
am
-1.9
7
am
-1.8
8
am
-1.4
9
am
-0.9
10
am
-0.4
11
am
0.2
12
pm
1
1
pm
1.7
2
pm
2.1
3
pm
1.8
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
-0.8
6
pm
-1.7
7
pm
-1.9
8
pm
-1.7
9
pm
-1.4
10
pm
-0.9
11
pm
-0.4


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Boston, MA,




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