Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakeside, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

9:52 AM EDT Update...

Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. A surface warm front continues to sweep NE'ward across far-NE OH and is expected to move NE'ward across the rest of our CWA through this early afternoon. This warm front will usher-in a warmer and more humid air mass originating over the Gulf. Isolated to scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible through this early afternoon along and behind the warm front due to moist isentropic ascent releasing weak elevated instability along the upper-reaches of the front and ahead of shortwave trough axes embedded in cyclonic SW'erly flow aloft.

Made minor adjustments to POP's this afternoon through early evening based on latest trends in obs and model guidance. Still expect the best potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms during that time frame to be focused across roughly the southeastern 1/3 of our CWA This is where surface trough axes accompanying the aforementioned shortwave trough axes aloft and an expected Lake Erie lake breeze front extending from far-NE Cuyahoga County through Erie County, PA are expected to act as foci for surface-based convection initiation. These lifting mechanisms are expected to release weak to moderate boundary layer instability stemming from peeks of sunshine and daytime heating of the warm/moist sector boundary layer. Localized flash flooding remains a concern, especially along the lake breeze front, since WSW'erly mean mid- level flow of only 20 to 30 knots should exhibit a large component parallel to the mesoscale front and permit training and slow-moving showers/storms. Periods of heavy rain are expected as PWAT's remain unusually-high in/near the warm/moist sector. Please see discussion below for further details.

Previous Discussion...

The near term forecast will bring warmer temperatures, muggy conditions, and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms today though tomorrow. There are some isolated to scattered showers this morning south of the Highway 30 corridor closer to central Ohio. We anticipate the showers to become more scattered to widespread later this morning into this afternoon. There will be a few thunderstorms possible especially with the daytime heating adding some energy in the atmosphere. Precipitable water values will increase today up to 1.9 inches with the passage of the warm front. With high moisture content, MLCAPE values up to 1000 J/KG, weak shear and steering flow is a good setup for showers and embedded storms to develop throughout the day today. Some of these showers and storms may be efficient rainfall producers with localized heavy rainfall possible today into this evening. Organized strong or severe convection is not expected today. The highest POPs will be generally from Marion to Cleveland to Erie line and southeastward. Lower POPs will be over northwest Ohio around the Toledo area. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to around 80 degrees where showers and storms persist more across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The warmest temperatures today will be over NWOH with low to middle 80s.

Most of the diurnally driven convection will slowly end this evening after sunset. We will keep some slight to chance POPs overnight given the moisture rich atmosphere and some weak lift lingering over the Upper Ohio Valley tonight. Wednesday will be a little more interesting with the potential of some strong to severe storms moving in late in the day and evening. A shortwave trough will track from the Cornbelt region of the Midwest into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. A surface low pressure system will develop and strengthen as it tracks through the central Great Lakes region late Wednesday which will drag a cold front across the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of this shortwave, there is a weak lead impulse wave in the 500 mb flow that will track across Ohio around midday Wednesday. Given the tropical like airmass and diurnal heating, there could be a round of scattered showers and storms that quickly move from west to east during the midday or early afternoon on Wednesday. It does appear that if this lead weather system kicks through, there will be enough time to quickly destabilize the atmosphere again late afternoon into the evening ahead of the approaching cold front. The short term discussion will have more details about the severe weather potential Wednesday evening. High temperatures on Wednesday will top out in the lower to middle 80s areawide with very humid conditions.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Deepening upper level low pressure will be moving across Lower Michigan Wednesday night while a surface low drags a cold front towards the region. Ahead of the cold front MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg with deep layer shear values near 30 knots. These environmental parameters will support upstream organized convection ahead of the cold front. This convection is expected to enter the I-75 corridor Wednesday evening.
Thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and severe hail with a chance for some embedded tornadoes. Storms will push east across northern Ohio Wednesday night with the cold front while decreasing in intensity with the loss of daytime heating.

Some showers and thunderstorms will linger on Thursday before high pressure gradually builds overhead Thursday night into Friday. Highs in the mid to upper 70s behind the cold front will rise into the low to mid 80s by Friday. Overnight lows settle in the lower 60s on Thursday night with warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s by Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Large scale ridging builds across the region through the long term period. Main weather concern will be above normal temperatures forecasted to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the weekend.
Heat indices may approach 100 degrees Sunday and Monday. Maintained slight chance PoPs to begin the weekend as a shortwave aloft moves overhead.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
The main message for aviation weather with this morning's TAF update will be mainly VFR conditions outside of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms today into this early this evening.
There are some scattered showers closer to central Ohio and the Highway 30 corridor as of 1030z. The expectation for the rest of this morning through the afternoon is an increase of showers and a few thunderstorms as a warm front lifts northward across the area.

TAF updates will be more nowcasting throughout today due to uncertainty of where the more concentrated showers and or brief heavier convection will develop and may impact individual airfields. We expect the most coverage of showers and isolated heavier convection will be between 15z this morning and 00z this evening. We have used a broad brush with the TAF for this morning and afternoon using PROB30 groups for -SHRA and -TSRA with brief ceilings to MVFR 3000 feet and reduction in visibility of 3sm to 5sm due to heavier downpours over the airfield. Outside of the scattered to widespread convection today, expect mainly VFR ceilings. Areas that see rainfall today may have some patchy MVFR fog 5sm along with some low stratus that may develop around 1500 feet. A couple TAF locations like MFD and YNG may have some low stratus ceilings down to IFR possibly after 06z tonight.

Winds will become southerly to south- southwesterly 5 to 10 knots this morning and continue through the end of this TAF period. We can't rule out a brief isolated wind gust of 20 to 30 knots with any heavier thunderstorm impacting an airfield.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with scattered to periodic showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday. The best chance of thunderstorms will be Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. There is a small chance of isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon over far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

MARINE
Low pressure moving across the Upper Great Lakes region will lift a warm front east across the lake this morning.
Southeasterly winds 5- 10 knots will shift southerly this morning through Wednesday. Another area of low pressure approaches from the west on on Wednesday. The low moves in the vicinity of Lake Erie Wednesday night leading to increasing southwesterly winds of 15-20 knots. Will continue to monitor the potential for small craft advisories and beach hazards statements with the mid-week system. The low exits to the east Wednesday night into Thursday morning and will drag a cold front with it. Westerly winds will diminish to 10-15 knots through the day on Thursday with high pressure building over the lake by the end of the week and into the weekend. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.