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LEZ143 Expires:202312100915;;202501 Fzus51 Kcle 100253 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 953 pm est Sat dec 9 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142-143-100915- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- 953 pm est Sat dec 9 2023
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A slight chance of rain showers late this evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 44 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 100607 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 107 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move across the area tonight. A trough will remain across the region through Monday. High pressure will build into the region from the south on Monday night and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Only made minor changes to the forecast through sunrise as the cold front is making good progress to the east. It should clear the eastern CWA by 3 am with most of the rain ending in its wake.

Previous discussion...A cold front is situated from the thumb of Michigan to just northwest of Toledo to southeast Indiana. A thin line of convection has developed ahead of the front and showers with some thunder are moving across Northwest Ohio. Some rain showers with the moisture and warm air advection right ahead of the front have also developed in North Central Ohio and are moving along and just west of the I-71 corridor. As the front and its associated line of convection moves east, it will arrive into a more favorable environment for rain to expand across the region. Therefore, will have a smaller area of categorical PoPs/100s expand in coverage through the late afternoon and evening hours as the front moves across the forecast area. With temperatures reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area, there should be enough instability in the region to allow for some some embedded thunder in the most perky showers moving through the region. The wind field ahead of the cold front remains well mixed with strong southerly winds and wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph across the region. The wind profile across the region doesn't suggest that much more wind would come down with any of the showers/storms, but a Special Weather Statement or two cannot be ruled out.

The cold front will move through the region tonight and rain will be best timed along and ahead of this feature. There will be some slowing with the front as it moves toward the Appalachians and have lingering chance PoPs through the night for the eastern half of the forecast area. For Sunday, cold air advection across the Great Lakes region will support lake effect snow processes and low clouds across the forecast area. Have some small PoPs across the forecast area with the highest in NE OH/NW PA. Temperatures on Sunday will be a battle between the cold air advection and the diurnal cycle and most areas will likely have high temperatures at midnight and largely falling.

The main upper trough will approach the forecast area on Sunday night and there will be a significant push of colder air across the area as a surface trough pushes southeast. This will allow for a band of snow to move through on Sunday night and with continued snow with lake effect processes. The setup looks favorable for a few inches of snow, especially across NW PA, as northwest flow will favor a combined Lake Erie and Lake Huron fetch and temperatures will fall to -8 to -9 C at 850 mb.
However, lake induced instability will only be a moderate amount with lake temperatures into the lower 40s at this time.
There will be some amount of saturation into the DGZ to allow for decently efficient snowfall rates. All in all, can see the need for a Winter Weather Advisory for inland Erie County PA for Sunday night into Monday, if totals of 4 to 5 inches are realized.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Upper trough will be slow to push east on Monday, resulting in continued lake effect precip through at least Monday morning and early afternoon. A period of enhanced snowfall rates is possible across NW PA (primarily inland Erie County) Monday morning as the trough axis enters and crosses NW PA, and these heavier rates may impact the morning commute. Snowfall rates should begin to diminish as the axis pushes east of the area by early afternoon. By Monday night, any lingering upper troughing will exit to the east as strong high pressure rapidly builds in from the west. Warm air advection will allow flow over Lake Erie to shift to the southwest Monday evening into Monday night and any lingering lake effect snow showers should dissipate and/or lift northeast out of the CWA.

The high will anchor over the area through most of Tuesday and expect dry weather late Monday night through at least Tuesday afternoon. A weak cold front may clip eastern zones starting Tuesday night, however there's still some uncertainty in upper level forcing and moisture. While most available deterministic guidance places the best forcing and moisture to the east of the area as strong high pressure maintains control over the region, the Canadian places moisture and upper-level troughing over eastern zones during this time, which could lead to isolated to widely scattered lake- enhanced snow showers. Opted for slight chance PoPs at this time, but it's likely that most of the area will experience a dry frontal passage.

Temperatures will remain in the 30s Monday, but the arrival of the high will allow temperatures to recover into the lower 40s with mid- 40s possible in western zones. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s each night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Cyclonic flow aloft may allow a few shortwaves to pivot across eastern zones Wednesday, but a dry air mass will likely keep PoPs and any precipitation rates low. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s. A ridge builds into the CWA Thursday with the ridge axis likely crossing the area on Friday. The ridge will foster dry weather with warming temperatures through the end of the week. By Friday, high temps may approach or reach the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.
Guidance diverges Friday night and into the weekend, but an approaching disturbance may produce increasing PoPs Friday night into Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
Some lingering MVFR and patchy IFR conditions were located near and ahead of the cold front as it moves eastward into PA. As the rain ends through 08Z expect all locations to see ceilings lift to VFR levels. Until the region begins to see increased cold advection it may be difficult to see MVFR ceilings return.
So we may need to wait for some heating after sunrise to get the MVFR ceilings to develop. An upper level trough moves across the region this evening into the overnight with snow expected for the most part. There could be some rain mixing in at the onset but it will quickly change to snow. MVFR ceiling are a definite when the snow begins. Downwind of the lake across NE OH into NW PA IFR conditions will occur with some lake enhanced snow.

Winds will be from the west at 8 to 15 knots through Sunday afternoon. As a reinforcing surge of colder air crosses the region after sunset winds shift to the west northwest at 10 to 15 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected overnight Sunday with low ceilings and snow showers. Lake effect snow will produce non-VFR conditions across NE OH and NW PA on Monday.

MARINE
Overall, marine conditions will be unsettled over the next several days. Southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots will dissipate to around 10 knots this evening as a cold front begins to move over Lake Erie.
West/northwest flow develops in response to cold air convection Sunday with wind speeds increasing to 15 to 25 knots through at least Monday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued east of The Islands through Monday night. Strong high pressure builds into the region Monday night and winds will shift to the southwest, focusing the higher winds to 25 knots and waves offshore into the open waters. Depending on wind speed and direction in the nearshore zones, Small Craft Advisories may need to continue through Tuesday.
Despite winds diminishing to 15 to 20 knots Tuesday night, Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Tuesday night through Thursday as winds become more westerly behind a weakening cold front.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for LEZ144.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM EST Monday for LEZ145.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ146>149.

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